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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Some S&P thoughts:
I see this in the framework of Gladwell's "Outliers". Tesla and Elon Musk are successful disruptive outliers. The status quo will push for conformity. Tesla will never be brought into the fold. If Tesla plays the game the way they want them to play then Tesla will lose their competitive (innovative) advantage. It is too high a price to pay for the acceptance they will never have.

If Tesla's recent moves were to accommodate the S&P and they got snubbed then Tesla should learn from it and move on.

My thoughts as an owner, fanboy, and shareholder: The S&P can go, be fruitful, and multiply with themselves. I will continue to accumulate my shares of this amazing vision for our future called Tesla. The S&P is no longer a part of my investment calculations for TSLA.

Now back to regularly scheduled programming...
 
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ABC- this evening: Hyundai now says recalled vehicles should be parked outside

Excerpt:

Hyundai has reversed itself on a recall to fix a defect that could cause engine fires and is now telling owners of more than 200,000 vehicles to park them outdoors until repairs are made.

The company, along with affiliated South Korean automaker Kia, on Thursday said they were recalling over 600,000 vehicles in the U.S. and Canada to fix a brake fluid leak that could cause the fires. Hyundai initially said it was OK for its vehicles to be parked indoors.
 
If Tesla's recent moves were to accommodate the S&P and they got snubbed then Tesla should learn from it and move on.

IMO there is a zero chance of getting snubbed after a handshake agreement. The general sentiment is that TSLA has become the leading indicator of the market, especially after the split.

A weak TSLA will cause more volatility in the market. S&P can be grandstanding and all but I don’t think they want egg on their face if they try to get cute with TSLA. Let’s wait for next week and see what transpires.

For TSLA stockholders the hope is that an S&P inclusion will bring some stability to the price action and MMs/Hedge funds can go fund another stock to mess with.
 
I am not a market player by any stretch of the imagination. i decided to test the waters for the first time and buy TSLA stock after the split. Bought shares on 9/2 @489 thinking that the price would shoot thru the roof...
ugh....
this is frustrating
in my best Shaggy voice, "Hang in there Scoob."
 
Phew! I cashed one set of former *sugar* calls turned DITM calls that were expiring on 1/21. The stonks & 2022 LEAPS are still intact.. not selling them any time soon. I'll be buying stonks and/or LEAPS from Tuesday.

With Schwab, do you have to call them if you want to exercise the options?
 
Quantumscape has a phony ring to it, spacs are even more so.
And now bill gates is a battery expert.
The trifecta, can’t wait to get in .

Bill Gates is not a battery expert - he's got the investment capital. along with VW and others.

I almost sold near the close today for over $6,000 profit. Then I said "naw, let it ride and see what happens!" :D

JB Straubel probably knows a thing or two about batteries by now, LOL! Still, it's a highly speculative bet. But I don't make bets on whether I like the sound of the company name or not! Especially when they will not be branding consumer items with their name - they will be wholesaling batteries to automakers if their products test out successfully. Imagine this conversation in 2025:

VW CEO: I like your proposed battery solution but I can't put a battery in a VW that has such a silly sounding name.
VW Engineer: But Quantumscape batteries have 20% more energy density, cost 10% less and charge 100% faster!
VW CEO: I know all that but seriously, 'Quantumscape'? We have standards around here.
VW Engineer: But we own 10% of the company!
VW CEO: I know but I can't help it, I just don't like the name... :rolleyes:
 
Phew! I cashed one set of former *sugar* calls turned DITM calls that were expiring on 1/21. The stonks & 2022 LEAPS are still intact.. not selling them any time soon. I'll be buying stonks and/or LEAPS from Tuesday.

With Schwab, do you have to call them if you want to exercise the options?

If they are in the money at expiration Schwab will generally exercise them automatically if you have the buying power in your account. But they are not obligated to if you don't provide direction. The safest thing is to let them know how you want them handled.
 
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IMHO it is wishful thinking that S&P will add $TSLA to S&P 500 next week. These are the only changes for September quarterly rebalance:

NEW YORK, September 4, 2020: S&P Dow Jones Indices will make the following index adjustments to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 to ensure each index more appropriately represents its market capitalization range. The changes will be effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, September 21, 2020 to coincide with the September quarterly rebalance:​

Past quarterly rebalances were all done with a single press release. That won't change.

S&P doesn't think $TSLA "represents its market capitalization range". Duh, $TSLA far outperforms it!
Let's ignore "Stupid & Pathetic Global", focus on Tesla's awesome technology, manufacturing, and business growth, and enjoy watching $TSLA continue to outperform SPX:

upload_2020-9-4_21-23-18.png
 
Ok Tesla/Elon....time to pull the offering. Whenever S&P decides it wants to get its act together they can deal with the implications of adding Tesla to their index with the available float on the market

That makes no sense.

Tesla is still in charge of what price the shares sell at - there's no need to pull the offering - they will sell the shares when the price makes sense.
 
IMHO it is wishful thinking that S&P will add $TSLA to S&P 500 next week. These are the only changes for September quarterly rebalance:

NEW YORK, September 4, 2020: S&P Dow Jones Indices will make the following index adjustments to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 to ensure each index more appropriately represents its market capitalization range. The changes will be effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, September 21, 2020 to coincide with the September quarterly rebalance:​

Past quarterly rebalances were all done with a single press release. That won't change.

S&P doesn't think $TSLA "represents its market capitalization range". Duh, $TSLA far outperforms it!
Let's ignore "Stupid & Pathetic Global", focus on Tesla's awesome technology, manufacturing, and business growth, and enjoy watching $TSLA continue to outperform SPX:

View attachment 584649
Sorry but this is just not true look at Gary blacks last tweet there have been incidents that multiple releases have happened staggered
 
No I'm not questioning Tesla actually raising the money. I definitely could see something being shown at battery day that justifies the need for the money.

My issue is the terms of the offering. If Tesla thought there was even a slight chance they werent getting added this quarter, there's no way you would do offering terms like that. You would simply do an offering at the 480 share price. Even Zach's mom would know the stock will drop hard if there's no inclusion this quarter
Doing an offering at that price knowing that after that has materialized Tesla isn’t added? If I were Zach I would have moral issues doing that.
 
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There is definitely a chance of that, a big chance. If, however, Tesla can show bottom line numbers and can say that right ‘today’ Tesla is seeing these efficiencies and savings, then the SP will go up as a result.

I’m leaning toward a muted to down SP response based on 8 years of historical data. Hopeful of course for a pleasant surprise, but not counting on it even a little bit.

I think the price reaction to battery day will depend not only on what they announce but also the share price. The lower the share price going into battery day the better the chance of a battery day induced rally. And of course we really don't know how substantial the various announcements will be. My guess is one or more of them will be super exciting from a financial standpoint.

Elon just said they would be announcing some substantial manufacturing changes to the made in Germany Model Y (that will trickle down to Fremont and Model 3).This is during battery day.

What if it is that the entire under-chassis is pressure cast from a single aluminum alloy casting? Or it might just be a single casting for the rear (I'm OK with baby steps when they happen this quickly!). This will not only make the car better but will improve margins. This will be on top of whatever battery developments we might learn about. Those could also include margin improvements as well as energy density increases. And look out if Tesla announces battery production on a huge scale!

I'm not sure how the 'competition' can compete with the pace of innovation at Tesla!

The S&P 500 committee members might feel like they have been punched in the gut if they have not included them by then. The S&P needs TSLA, Tesla doesn't need the S&P.
 
Sorry to interrupt the SPoon feeding.

Picked up a M3 with a friend yesterday.

The lot was packed with several 100 cars waiting for pickup. People coming at a rate of about 20 per hour. I only saw very few MS and MX (4 but could have been more in the prep area). No MY obviously.

The place is about 110 km outside of Munich.

My impression: the process went very smooth. Between check-in and driving off the lot with plates mounted and checking out the car: less than 30 minutes. Paperwork was 3 minutes.

Only one owner was seen with issues: the Tesla T was missing on the hood of his M3. (I would have accepted it as a ‘special’ car.