Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

That’s a big ask. I think we may fall a bit short considering production in Q3 was 145K. They’d need to increase by at least 25% to have a chance. But then again, it’s Tesla so they may be able to pull it off.

Don't forget we have a closure in giga shanghai so production should have been a few thousand higher.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Markets not impressed with the slight beat. There was a momentary 1% pop, but now it’s back down to -4%. Will probably continue trading at a multiple of the NASDAQ for the rest of the day.

 

[Hock1]

This is the short-term investor thread. POTUS testing postive is obviously a market-moving event. As long as the discussion doesn't descend into politics, it's all fair-game for discussion.

"This is the short term investor thread"!! Kind of an oxymoron in itself.

 

[Thekiwi]

Are you guys forgetting model Y is still ramping at Fremont? quarterly capacity for 3&Y is due to be 125k before year end according to last earnings report. add the up to 22.5k S/X quarterly capacity and target 50k from Shanghai and production should have a good shot of hitting ~500k for year (or at least the 30-40% growth range mentioned by Elon at battery day, which translates to 478k-515k cars range)

 

[traxila]

Markets not impressed with the slight beat. There was a momentary 1% pop, but now it’s back down to -4%. Will probably continue trading at a multiple of the NASDAQ for the rest of the day.

Above where it was premarket due to other news. Overall being seen as a slight positive to SP. Will be hard to get a handle on it today.

 

[Boomer19]

 

[Rb48888]

So... I know people had high expectations anyway, but looking at previous quarters charts...

View attachment 594514
(credit: galis hypercharts)

these numbers are very very VERY good.
Show me another car maker accelerating production (and lets not forget SALES) at this rate.
I would have been concerned if the production had been under 90k. 100k I was ok with, 120 very happy, 145k? VERY happy, for this to be during covid too, is amazing. Strong HOLD from me.

Also am I right in seeing a 50% increase QoQ on S/X?

Robs livestream is a hilarious s-show because audio echo right now, but here’s his update on that chart.

edit: Removed the bad livestream link. Most likely Rob pulled the video down due to the audio issues this am (which were hilarious). He mentioned that due to the tech issues, he will likely post his usual daily show later today.

 

[Todd Burch]

I thought Rob did expect it. Days of inventory is based on sales and Q2 had less sales due to Covid so Q2 DOI was artificially high.

Around 13:30 in this video:

Rob expected inventory to go up a bit.

 

[vikings123]

That’s a big ask. I think we may fall a bit short considering production in Q3 was 145K. They’d need to increase by at least 25% to have a chance. But then again, it’s Tesla so they may be able to pull it off.

Having completed all the tooling in both Fremont and Shanghai including the additional assembly lines I think they are fully prepared to ramp up for Q4. I expect China will produce 50K in the final quarter which will include some Model Ys. That means Fremont will need to produce about 135-140K and they have the capacity for that. Remember this Q3 production number is with the one week shutdown in Fremont for tooling and almost two weeks shutdown in Shanghai for annual inspection.

Also, Elon has repeatedly said that this quarter were very challenging in terms of supply chain and manufacturing so hopefully those problems are behind us and we can have the plants running efficiently and producing those beautiful cars faster.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

If you look at the Q2-Q3 jump, the Q3-4 jump to meet 500k is easily doable for Tesla, especially given the ramping of china, and how in china at least, covid seems to be in the rear view mirror.
I'm assuming 500k for the year is now a done deal, barring super-exceptional events (earthquakes etc)

 

[Unpilot]

My crystal ball say's 501k for the year is in the bag......because..Elon.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

If you look at the Q2-Q3 jump, the Q3-4 jump to meet 500k is easily doable for Tesla, especially given the ramping of china, and how in china at least, covid seems to be in the rear view mirror.
I'm assuming 500k for the year is now a done deal, barring super-exceptional events (earthquakes etc)

Wasn’t the factory shut down for most of Q2? It’s slightly disingenuous to point to a jump in production the following quarter when it was open the whole time....

 

[ninpb]

For Q4 profits, can we add +5.25 million, the average cost of a 30s Superbowl ad?

Crew Dragon launch in a few weeks. 30s worth is super conservative of how much Tesla is saving on advertisement with this event.

 

[juanmedina]

seems positive

 

[elasalle]

3Q profits secured.(+Should be without credits as well -- TSLAQ talking point )
Another round of S&P Blues/FOMO will kick in soon.

475K deliveries and we will be off by 5% on some projection of 500K made years ago. That too with COVID 2020 year. I think game plan is in place.

Time to close some CC's today and wait for the bounce next week.

+Election talking points are gonna change, science, health care guidelines can no longer be denied/ignored.

 

[elasalle]

seems positive

Phils body language was so funny, like he hated giving out the good news

 

[H Mak]

That's a 44% increase on Q3 2019. What other car company?

It's also the first time Tesla is selling cars at an annualised rate of over 1/2 million. (Well over half a million)

 

[T@oo]

That's a 44% increase on Q3 2019. What other car company?

Nio.

 

[Singuy]

Max pain 427

Resistance 453 ish
Support 413ish

 

[traxila]

Nio.

Rooting for all EV companies, but that is off a much lower base. Hard to compare the two companies at this point. NIO would have to show explosive growth for years to catch up.