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  1. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    Definitely. Heck I was one of the first people to have a car with any form of Autopilot (AP1) back in October of 2014 and I don’t have it either. At this point Tesla is well past their targeted rollout to special people. People are now mostly at the mercy of their hardware configuration...
  2. Todd Burch

    FSD Beta 12.3 GA

    Why does it feel like the rollout has halted? Significant drop for installs today compared to yesterday.
  3. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    Initially I think the rollouts tend to start around the weekend but once we’re this far into it, it usually continues at increasing rate until fully deployed regardless of day.
  4. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Totally agree, the people who claim FSD is ready for Robotaxi or driving perfectly are full of it. Don't recall exactly what I was responding to the other day--but it was something along the lines of not expecting the pace of improvement to be similar to what we've seen in the past. Now that...
  5. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    Still no HW4 cars. A couple appear to have gone out but they aren’t actively rolling out at all.
  6. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    The best part of 12.3 going wide is that I don’t have to watch any more of Whole Mars’ boring videos :).
  7. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    We are not “close” to Robotaxi yet. Still have to deal with: -Emergency vehicles -Crossing Guards -Police directing traffic -Closed Roads -School buses -no turn on red signs -school zones -no stopping on railroad tracks -and hundreds or thousands of other edge cases that are not common but...
  8. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    18 meters isn’t really enough to fully evaluate it.
  9. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    Haven’t seen anyone on HW4 get 12.3 yet according to TeslaFi.
  10. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They sound great, right? It's something unpredictable, but in the end it's right. I hope you had the time of your life.
  11. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    Are you being sarcastic? Nobody was expecting v12 to be perfect. Of course there will be problem spots. But nearly everyone is saying this is the best release ever and a huge leap forward.
  12. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Model Y price has gone up $500 this quarter, and obviously avg selling price for Model 3 is higher too. I don’t really see the disaster some are expecting.
  13. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Linear extrapolation is not your friend.
  14. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    LOL of course they would say that. Here’s a list of the successful Chinese car companies in North America (that didn’t start out as non-Chinese and then get bought out by them, aka Volvo/Geely): 1.
  15. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FSD 12.3 now going to non-employees: FSD V12 (end to end AI) I know some are considering bouncing out of TSLA right now as the price is depressed (not a good time to sell an investment!) but a warning: This may all happen much sooner than previous development pace might imply. As James Douma...
  16. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    As the project manager for a software team that needs to be larger than it is and we are always needing more thorough unit tests (aka we are hurting for people), there’s another big benefit to e2e control code. Since your development team is now writing much less control code, you can now...
  17. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yeah I was thinking the exact same thing. It may be the words from GPT, but it doesn't seem like an AI voice. None that I've ever heard before anyway.
  18. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My reaction was: It did a great job for the most part. The only small area of concern was where it came to a closed turn lane which had cones and a powered arrow sign. The car did the right thing (went to the adjacent still-open turn lane) but did so after getting closer to the cones than I...
  19. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes, selling more cars, at a fraction of Tesla's margin. So? FSD has taken longer than anyone was led to believe? Feel free to search this forum for my post from October of 2014 (when AP1 first came out, of which my second Model S was one of the first to have any form of Autopilot) where I...
  20. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Speculation over on the Autopilot v12 thread is that, especially after the reply from Musk, her account got a massive amount of views/attention (her clip had over 1.2M views) and something (creepy X user?) bugged her to the point where she had to remove her account from public status. The...
  21. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    Why do you say that? I've had 11.4.9 blow right through (or start to) well-marked, normally-placed stop signs with regular visibility in 20 MPH speed limit neighborhoods.
  22. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    It's been 12 hours since we first saw a report of FSD 12.3 going out to a non-Tesla-employee. Surprised we haven't seen anything else on it yet.
  23. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    Missed it by hours! FSD V12 (end to end AI)
  24. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And sadly he passed away because the Porsche GT3 he was in did not have a stalk.
  25. Todd Burch

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    Whoa dude, who pissed in your corn flakes? I’m simply explaining why a passenger side charge port is not ideal.
  26. Todd Burch

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    What grief? I’m simply explaining why a passenger side charger is not ideal. My port is on the driver’s side so I don’t have any grief. That’s the point. If it were on the passenger side it would be more of a pain. Even with a second EVSE you would still have to get out of your car and go to...
  27. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    He knows that now, after taking an axe to the front of the car.
  28. Todd Burch

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    I routinely park on the right side of a 2-car garage in which each garage door is independent. My cord is on the wall between the two garage doors. I never have to cross to the other side of the car to plug in. Similarly, a car on the left side would have the charger located on the left wall...
  29. Todd Burch

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    LOL I'm 5'11" and weigh 175 lbs. I don't think I need to go on a diet...
  30. Todd Burch

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    Little things like that matter, especially when there’s no reason why it CAN’T be on the driver’s side. In my garage it would be a pain because my garage is just barely longer than my Model X. I’d have to squeeze around either the front or back of the car to get to the port. I would have to...
  31. Todd Burch

    All discussion of Rivian Automotive

    Charge port on the passenger side is a really stupid idea. Many, many garages are configured like mine, where the door into the house is in one corner of the back wall of the garage. Depending on the side of the garage you park on, when you come home and park in the garage, many people will...
  32. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    @AlanSubie4Life , Can you man up and explain why you give a "laugh" emoji for every post I make? Pretty lame behavior.
  33. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    All, Before v12 came out, it was clear that the first release of v12 wouldn't be perfect. Tesla still has a lot of number crunching to do. Issues with the first iteration have no bearing on the success of the approach longer term. In the beginning, champion Go players could beat DeepMind's...
  34. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    When is the last time the market was rational? Tesla will lose a few day's production....a few thousand cars. A blip. Hopefully they catch the people and they spend the rest of their lives miserably rotting in prison as Brutus, their new cellmate, makes friends with them in more ways than...
  35. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I suppose it depends on how they define “physical controls”. The article seems to imply that the lack of stalks will be a problem for Tesla, but I also know better than to trust an article. Does the non-haptic turn signal button in the Highland 3 count as a “separate physical control?” What...
  36. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thats the part I wasn’t going to say out loud. Feels more like the result of competing car companies lobbying to pull Tesla back than solving a legitimate problem. Reminds of the reason we have these stupid noisemakers on our Teslas when we back up. Another consequence of a solution in search...
  37. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’d love to see the “statistics” used to substantiate this BS.
  38. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    When you see it's not going to make the exit, or it feels reasonably like it's not going to make it, just disengage. Otherwise the issue doesn't get to Tesla and they don't know about--and that way you don't get as pissed because you don't miss your exit!
  39. Todd Burch

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Huh? YoY comparisons exist because of seasonal variability, which is a real thing in the auto industry. This is not unique to Tesla.
  40. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    Millions and millions of video clips. This is going to take a little while. But the great thing is that every new network version should, on the whole, get better. And only Tesla has the capability to gather that much data.
  41. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    It’s not really a fine line. There’s a big difference in torque required. The trick is this: you can apply a pretty small torque, but you have to hold it for about a second. If you do that, you’ll never disengage accidentally unless you happen to be challenged in the motor skills department.
  42. Todd Burch

    Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

    The Agility stuff just doesn’t look very impressive to me. Verrrrry slow and looks very hardcoded as well.
  43. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    I can’t remember where I heard it (maybe it was a former AI day) but Karpathy had said at the time that it took a week or two to train the perception network. This is a wild guess but I was thinking they have more data and a larger network now (yes it’s a different network) but they also now...
  44. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    My read (aka total guess) on the v12 situation: After the initial release, Tesla got enough disengagement info and feedback via the cars and social media that they recognized some weak/danger spots that they felt needed to be addressed before wider release. They have been adding more video of...
  45. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    I'm just saying in general. California law does *not* differentiate between a right-turn only scenario and other unprotected lefts. I transcribed the California code a few posts above: The driver making the left turn must *always* yield to any oncoming driver making the right turn if the turn...
  46. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    This is not correct. California Vehicle Code says absolutely nothing about cars turning into their own lane or about the right of way lasting only during the turn itself. Moreover, any experienced driver would be a fool to turn left against an oncoming vehicle turning right for two reasons...
  47. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    But if you can get away with it, maybe you can teach them a lesson 😂
  48. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    True, but if the opposite direction has a green arrow (ie protected left turn), the FSD vehicle would not have had a green light. Edit: I interpreted this as if you were suggesting that in this case it was possible the oncoming traffic had a green arrow. On rereading it you're not necessarily...
  49. Todd Burch

    FSD V12 (end to end AI)

    I would have preferred v12 honk like hell and flip the bird while all those drivers illegally usurped FSD's right of way. Does anyone in Cali know how to drive? (Don't answer that, I used to live there so I know that the percentage is small). Short of that, yes it would have been safer to yield...