Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Richard007]

Found some change in the couch, and more in the car. Went and got some chairs.

 

[AndrewZ]

Don't forget to add in End of Month rebalancing, Max Pain being $245, and all the usual machinations of a wide array of market forces the most-optioned ticker symbol may fall prey to.

Against those headwinds, the announcement of the new M3 and the price cuts are easy scapegoats for anyone looking for a simple answer, rather than investing time into uncovering a more reasonable explanation for the drop.

We never truly know why stock prices do what they do on a given day, but strictly looking at options causing stock price movements belies any other underlying stuff that can drive traders to make certain options bets that then move the stock price

 

[Singuy]

We never truly know why stock prices do what they do on a given day, but strictly looking at options causing stock price movements belies any other underlying stuff that can drive traders to make certain options bets that then move the stock price

Only when options get overloaded which usually happens during earnings or major announcements from Tesla. Tsla doesn't always follow max pain when option volumes are low.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1697471273759375401

Good question.
I posted my guesses here pre S/X news.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Upon thinking about the Highland M3, I wonder if many of these interior changes are mainly to create separation between this and the upcoming "Model 2" compact car?

By adding vented seats, a rear screen, and interior LGB light strips, they create a contrast between this and the next $25K Tesla, which very likely will be super bare bones without any of those features.

Probably more about adding features they lacked compared to competitors' vehicles.

 

[wipster]

The true covered CT frunk...

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/frunk-money-shot-%F0%9F%92%B5-production-finish-with-liner-insert.9168/

 

[Max Plaid]

Interesting that most of the above conversation is focused on whether the S/X price cuts and Highland.

I'm more interested in the "dynamic" decision to introduce a new product 2 weeks ago and then kill it. Not the first time they've done that, but I think it may be the quickest?

(Real question that I can't seem to find the answer to in the other forums, did anyone actually receive a Standard Range? I don't think so since delivery was supposed to be September/October, but wanted to confirm.)

Tesla management is constantly surprising, but it seems to me that this could be argued to be impulsive as much as genius.

On the one hand, maybe they learned something about significant about demand with the introduction of a cheaper S/X (i.e., like Apple did when they slashed the price of the original iPhone shortly after launch) and decided to go all in.

On the other hand, maybe decision-making has become more chaotic at Tesla (post-Drew) and the standard range launch was a complete blunder.

Maybe a little bit of both...

None of this implicates should impact TSLA medium-term and S/X is immaterial in the big picture, but it's definitely another piece in my investment puzzle about whether Tesla management has the depth and capability to continue its rather extraordinary run of outthinking the competition. I'm more than comfortable with Tesla engineering and design. However, my long-term investment thesis also incorporates the many genius-ly aggressive business decisions they've made over the past decade.

I want Tesla management to continue with aggressive business moves and hover close to the edge -- just don't want to see them fall off.

"post-Drew", what do you mean by that? Did you mean "post-Zach"?

Bit on reflection it could well be that Tesla were testing the waters on pricing with the standard-range, if indeed they saw a significant interest, decided the margins were worth it, then yes, just drop the price and stop dicking about

I would imagine if anyone did actually order one, that they'll either get a long-range delivered now, or if they already received the SR, have it unlocked for free, would be the right thing to do

Amusing stock price today, I suspect it was going to happen whatever Tesla announced, but obviously the detractors pounce on the price-cuts and say little about the huge upgrade to the Model 3 and the substantial price rise in China

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In case anyone actually cares about our investment:

#TSLA finished +$6.19 for the week. Could it have been better? Sure...good things come to those that wait. Too bad market was not closed today Have a safe weekend y'all!

 

[CorneliusXX]

View attachment 970121

It's nice you are starting to appreciate the finer things in life.

 

[2daMoon]

The true covered CT frunk...

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/frunk-money-shot-%F0%9F%92%B5-production-finish-with-liner-insert.9168/

View attachment 970227

A shopping cart full of groceries ought to fit in there nicely!

 

[wipster]

A shopping cart full of groceries ought to fit in there nicely!

Or golf clubs and bag hopefully

 

[Max Plaid]

Yes.

Then they aren't BEV's, BEV's are battery only, hybrids are PHEV's and not to be uttered in the same sentence, except this one I just wrote, of course...

 

[Max Plaid]

These price drops, does that even work?!?

…

I just scheduled a Model S Plaid test drive for tomorrow.

I warn you now, it's a huge step-up from your crummy P100DL, so consider it a done deal... rationalise the purchase by saying your current car is out of warranty and therefore a ticking time-bomb for repair costs

 

[Buckminster]

Elon said they would do some advertising. It has been minimal so far. We they ramp up? Or will CT launch be sufficient?

Need for Tesla Advertising / PR

 

[SOULPEDL]

It’s amazing to think that you can now buy a bare-bones plaid for under 90 K

If we trade in our MYP for CyberTruck, we're gonna need a truck-load of cash to pay off the loan, including that $15K for FSD. Ouch.
Big lesson here somewhere... just not sure what it is yet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

According to @Papafox, MaxPain for today is $245. As a casual watcher of the daily TSLA ticker and the daily papapfox trading chart thread I am not surprised by the price movement, not. even. a little bit.

I AM a bit surprised so many are attributing todays price movements to the m3 release. Seems we were going here today regardless.

This seems like less a panic moment and more an opportunity to get out for the day. TSLA to the moon (another day); max pain for today!

Edit: by “get out for the day” I mean, go get a bike ride or a hike. Not financial advice, do your own research, etc.

"Missed it by that much" -- Maxwell Paine, Agent 69

Cheers to the Smart Labors!

 

[Singuy]

Elon said they would do some advertising. It has been minimal so far. We they ramp up? Or will CT launch be sufficient?

Need for Tesla Advertising / PR

Honestly I am not 100% sure if dropping the S/X price this drastically is optimal. I think they should just include FSD as a luxury feature for free and call it a day. Gives people the illusion that they "dropped" the price by 15k(or 12k). Those who bought early and didn't get the free FSD probably would cope with themselves "meh, don't care for it anyways". And S/X is a niche mover so how many of these cars will Tesla want to move a year anyways?

To hit the tax credit limit for the X box the S in so the S must be cheaper. This also forces all S/X prices to be lowered across the globe despite of regional demand. Also now it puts pressure on the Y. Not only all of that, most people who can afford the X probably have a hard time qualifying for the tax credit anyways when there's a 150k/300k income cap limit. I mean if you are single from California, making 150k/year or 80k/year post tax will put most people in a rough spot spending 3.5k/month on rent and another 1.5k/month on a 80k loan@6%.

So I don't think Tesla needed to just bulldoze the price by like 30k to draw some demand that's a miniscule number anyways.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The true covered CT frunk...

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/frunk-money-shot-%F0%9F%92%B5-production-finish-with-liner-insert.9168/

View attachment 970227

It's a front rumble seat! Needs a cushion with backrest option - Tesla Shop?

Imagine pulling up to a View Point at sunset with a loved one, popping the Frunk. Inside, cozy seats for 2 + Bandit. Add in snacks with other guilty pleasures and it's the perfect love seat. It even has a cover if it rains! for some shade if needed.

Any lighting or speakers? I'd recommend it. What's 6 more speakers anyway.

 

[alhounos]

Elon said they would do some advertising. It has been minimal so far. We they ramp up? Or will CT launch be sufficient?

Need for Tesla Advertising / PR

Somebody needs to hold Elon to his promise to try advertising. I guarantee if you polled Americans about how much a 3/Y cost they would be high by at least $10k, not even including IRA rebates (which they are also likely not aware of.)

Probably the most frustrating thing about owning TSLA is that they have seem to want keep their product and price advantage a secret, and are willing to let the hostile media “educate” consumers on their behalf.

 

[hooty]

Does that number include their Hybrid production?

The abbreviation ‘BEV’ means battery electric vehicle.
If you include PHEVs - Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicle - BYDs annualised run rate is circa 3.4M