Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The good old days are now. The future might be dystopian.
Luke, who's yer daddy?
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The good old days are now. The future might be dystopian.
Very well said! I am prone to give Too Much Information according to many. You have accurately simplified the reality. Make People Trade!Around about the same time as that, I worked for a UK company called datastream/ICV. Our competitors were reuters and bloomberg. AFAIK at the time, reuters were basically a financial data services company, even back then. In other words they were very *in* with people working on trading floors.
A few years of that, and extensive research since has taught me that there is a HUGE industry that is deciated to one goal:
Make
People
Trade
Big companies make billions from getting people to buy, then to sell, then buy, then sell. Trade baby! Trade! They make money on the orders regardless which direction it goes. To enable this ludicrously profitable setup you need agitprop clickbait (business insider, cnbc, seeking alpha), a complicit mainstream media (cnn, wall st journal), a host of brokers that offer discounts for frequent trading, and 'live news feed' style services like reuters who will give you second-by-second updates that you should trade on RIGHT NOW, before you even finish the headline.
If Tesla were struggling financially, these same people would run enthusiastic clickbait to drive them up, like they do with Lucid, Rivian, so people would buy stock. They pimp the losers and trash the winners, all part of the constant cycle to get dumb money to keep paying those trading fees...
Yes I am cynical, but also I speak from experience. Buy and HOLD. Consider making a trade every six months at most. Its working well for me YMMV
Haven't fixed the crummy auto wipers then...
Yikes! I'm ~45 days away per this rate (give or take a few States and favors) with 112796xxx. I'm also surprised Az is involved already. I don't live too far from @SunCatcher in Az who already got an invite. I assume I waited a bit to order (maybe only minutes) which could be ideal here on something so new.4k/day increase means my reservation will be available in ~2 weeks. Now how to get it to London.
Oh come on SOULPEDL, you can do it! Imagine how popular you'd be here in AZ giving all us other TMC members a ride in your new Founder's Edition CT! I'll even let Bandit sit on my lap! PLEASE!!!Yikes! I'm ~45 days away per this rate (give or take a few States and favors) with 112796xxx. I'm also surprised Az is involved already. I don't live too far from @SunCatcher in Az who already got an invite. I assume I waited a bit to order (maybe only minutes) which could be ideal here on something so new.
Likely the algo isn't 4K/day, but then again here we are. Pressure to accept is also huge with such a long line at the Cybertruck order window, still growing I hear. Would prefer a pop in TSLA before deciding this.
Seems noteworthy how many here are passing on the opportunity to place a firm order for a CyberTruck. The overall reservation-to-order conversion rate among members of this thread is presumably a far higher rate than the general public (greater knowledge both at reservation time and now, stronger brand affiliation, financial ability to purchase, etc). Only minor anecdotal evidence, to be sure, and my own biases are almost certainly a factor, but it does seem to lend credence to the conjecture that the overall 7-digit backlog will likely be slow to convert to actual orders. Tesla can, of course, somewhat control the conversion rate by adjusting the order pricing, so it will be interesting to see how long they can keep the current pricing and how it adjusts throughout 2024.
As a career early adopter I do not see any difference other than that the guinea pigs never volunteered.Oh come on SOULPEDL, you can do it! Imagine how popular you'd be here in AZ giving all us other TMC members a ride in your new Founder's Edition CT! I'll even let Bandit sit on my lap! PLEASE!!!
Seriously, I can't wait to ride in/drive a CT, but will def wait for prices to come down, and quirks to get worked out. "You first!". "No, YOU first!"
Edit: I see a difference between being an early adopter and a guinea pig.
Yes, I fully understand that they are retaining their reservation, but not ordering the Founder's Edition. As I've stated before, I doubt few (if any) will cancel their reservation, as there is *no* real benefit to anyone to cause them to cancel it (the $100 deposit being returned seems trivial). Most will simply delay their order until such time as the {available offering, available price, their financials, and their need/desire for the vehicle} all line up to make them place the order, whether it be in 2024, 2025, 2026, or beyond. It is the reservation-deferring rate, not the (virtually 0) reservation cancellation rate, which makes me certain that Tesla's estimated delivery dates on their order page are actual estimated delivery dates for newly placed reservations (assuming the new reserver takes Tesla up on their first offer to configure/order).You do realize they are only turning down the option to buy the Founder's Edition, not giving up their reservation for their original order, right?
This reference for takers of the more expensive edition is inconsequential to the overall order queue.
Not so sure about "many" passing it up, but a few yes, and especially if we don't need a Founder's series. Part of my hesitation relates to time-value. I read pages of folks here who did the math on how much they would have been worth if they had invested in TSLA instead.Seems noteworthy how many here are passing on the opportunity to place a firm order for a CyberTruck. The overall reservation-to-order conversion rate among members of this thread is presumably a far higher rate than the general public (greater knowledge both at reservation time and now, stronger brand affiliation, financial ability to purchase, etc). Only minor anecdotal evidence, to be sure, and my own biases are almost certainly a factor, but it does seem to lend credence to the conjecture that the overall 7-digit backlog will likely be slow to convert to actual orders. Tesla can, of course, somewhat control the conversion rate by adjusting the order pricing, so it will be interesting to see how long they can keep the current pricing and how it adjusts throughout 2024.
That seems like a stretch. This version is lacking a little battery maturity IMHO. So those skipping the Founders to defer purchase for newer is smart if you can wait a bit. It's the wealthy one-marshmallow type who will dish out $120K on first units. Meanwhile, our Model Y told us that Tesla's are not necessarily an investment that holds value.Conversely, if Tesla loops through the entire reservation backlog offering the Founder's Edition and gets so few takers that they loop back around with original-reservation-pricing, that would be a quite bearish sign for actual demand.
No way they loop reservations on Foundation edition. They have already cancelled the rare cases of people who were able to order two.Obviously, for whatever value <X> one assumes for CyberTruck *production* in 2024, if Tesla were to sell all <X> at Founder's Edition pricing / packaging, that is a quite bullish sign for actual demand. Conversely, if Tesla loops through the entire reservation backlog offering the Founder's Edition and gets so few takers that they loop back around with original-reservation-pricing, that would be a quite bearish sign for actual demand. Reality will almost certainly be somewhere in between these two extremes, of course...but where between them is currently unknown.
...which makes me certain that Tesla's estimated delivery dates on their order page are actual estimated delivery dates for newly placed reservations (assuming the new reserver takes Tesla up on their first offer to configure/order).
Hence my interest in how long they can maintain Founder's Edition, and how they alter the actual order price after that. Obviously, for whatever value <X> one assumes for CyberTruck *production* in 2024, if Tesla were to sell all <X> at Founder's Edition pricing / packaging, that is a quite bullish sign for actual demand.
Conversely, if Tesla loops through the entire reservation backlog offering the Founder's Edition and gets so few takers that they loop back around with original-reservation-pricing, that would be a quite bearish sign for actual demand.
Reality will almost certainly be somewhere in between these two extremes, of course...but where between them is currently unknown. Will the first round of non-Founder's-Edition be current pricing but ala-carte instead of only with all the options in the Founder's Edition? Will there be a price cut in 2024 to increase the reservation-to-order conversion rate, and if so, when and by how much? These are the unknowns now, but as they become known, this real-world-example will almost certainly become an exercise in price discovery that will likely be the source of many an MBA case study down the road.
More like the 'camera wipers' ; especially the rear camera with much needed lens hood!"It works very well in California, but needs more training for heavy precipitation areas"
Maybe it's just the wipers?
/s
It's wise to remember that low depreciation in nearly any vehicle is a scarce event. Early BMW 3-series, Honda Accord, some Ferrari models (only some, people rarely talk about the ones that lose value), early Tesla. Those do happen but they don't last long and people often lose faith when they stop. I have anecdotes on both sides, in aircraft and cars. The only realistic assumption is for high depreciation.... Meanwhile, our Model Y told us that Tesla's are not necessarily an investment that holds value.
Mostly agree, but a slight clarification is needed on the last point. Nearly all large OEM's don't sell each vehicle with "more profit made" as the goal. Most have base models that often are sold below total cost, but if they contribute more than marginal costs, they help allow more profit to be made on higher specification models. Tesla is obviously making much more profit per vehicle on Performance models and models with options for color, FSD and wheels (to name three). BMW and Mercedes Benz are masters of that process, often invisible to customers because the base models are often sold into poorer countries and fleet/commercial use, while not even sold in richer countries. The base models help because they sell all above marginal cost....
Whatever the market will bear without increasing inventory appears to be a good baseline to follow. The goal will always be "more vehicles sold" taking precedence over "more profit made," which is the usual goal for other car makers.