TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Hey, quick question: are there any good sites for tracking the rollout of *high power* CCS stations? There are tons of sites that track CCS stations, but I've not seen any that let you limit them by power.

You could try Open Charge Map - The global public registry of electric vehicle charging locations

 

[Tslynk67]

Can you honestly picture no possible way to stash a couple powerpacks in place of ~1 car?

Why not use the power-packs of the cars, daisy-chained to the semi's drive units! Problem solved!!

 

[SpaceCash]

Why not use the power-packs of the cars, daisy-chained to the semi's drive units! Problem solved!!

It seems like a borderline inane, non-issue to me. I think Elon can figure out how to slap a little extra go-juice on his company's delivery trucks.

 

[KarenRei]

You could try Open Charge Map - The global public registry of electric vehicle charging locations

Thanks for that. But that can't be right, can it? Only one >= 100kW CCS charger in Norway?

Also, some data looks like nonsense - for example, in Airolo it claims there's a 150kW CHAdeMO

ED: Also, if I filter by network and choose Ionity, it shows only one station. Yet the official Ionity map shows 17.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why not use the power-packs of the cars, daisy-chained to the semi's drive units! Problem solved!!

Do you realize how much electrical engineering work it would take to parallel connect 9 * 80KWh batteries safely? Each battery is at an unknown SOC, you can't just connect them with a high amp capable cable without risking massive current flows. Then you have to manage failure modes, collision testing, etc.

And the Model 3 DC charge port is not bi-directional (otherwise owners could run their homes from it with V2G). There's more work and expense to do there.

Plus there's no need. The high range Tesla Semi will already have 500 or 600 miles of range supported by a system of megachargers. The alternative is that the delivery centre has to recharge each car after it arrives, further slowing dealer prep.

Finally, why should customers on the US East coast pay the same federally-mandated $1,000 delivery and doc fee yet receive a used battery, vs West coasters that get a brand new battery? What if one of those used batteries catches on fire? The U.S. is a highly litigious country. Queue the lawsuits.

This is just a idea looking for a problem. Total non-starter.

Cheers!

P.S. 'Daisy chained' is a SERIAL connection. The voltage would be 9*400 volts. They would have to be connected in parallel, so 9x the wiring. Bah!

 

[bobo]

Down here, we’re all automatically(unless we opt out) being moved over to a city-owned, 100% carbon free and slightly cheaper, utility in, I think, April. Seems like good timing, now.

Thanks for that. But that can't be right, can it? Only one >= 100kW CCS charger in Norway?

Also, some data looks like nonsense - for example, in Airolo it claims there's a 150kW CHAdeMO

Try uppladdning.nu - we have a very good coverage on the Nordic markets.
Ioniq is deploying chargers above 150kW in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. There are also couple of local companies that have installed faster quick chargers.
See here: McDonald's Kristinehamn [Fortum] Charging site
And here: Rättvik - Dalakraft Snabbladdare Charging site

 

[Jayjs20]

Come on, bad macros! Hit us with your worst in the coming weeks!

Same boat as you. It wouldn't hurt to be hit with a quick 10 minute recession real quick, would it?

 

[KarenRei]

Try uppladdning.nu - we have a very good coverage on the Nordic markets.
Ioniq is deploying chargers above 150kW in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. There are also couple of local companies that have installed faster quick chargers.
See here: McDonald's Kristinehamn [Fortum] Charging site
And here: Rättvik - Dalakraft Snabbladdare Charging site

That might give accurate data for the Nordic markets, but what about the rest of Europe? Also, unless I'm missing something, I see no easy way there to narrow down the list by power. The best I see is to go into the "list" page and then guess at what powers to look for via "find" in your browser, and cross-reference each one by country.

It seems weird that we don't have a better answer for how to do this. We're supposed to be tracking Tesla's "moats", right? How are we supposed to do that if we don't have a good way to track high power CCS deployments?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nvidia is the #13 ranked equity on the NASDAQ-100:

• NVDA's weight is 1.542 %
• TSLA is ranked #30 at 0.755 %

NASDAQ-100 futures are currently down: -69.75 (1.01%)

NASDAQ-100 by change (ascending) Pre-market 2018-11-16

 

[KarenRei]

And TSLA is down 0,69% premarket. But that's not good enough; I want like 5% down. Come on, Elon, taunt the SEC. Make fun of firemen. Photograph yourself holding a sign that says "Journalists Are The Enemy of the People". Start writing a post about ambien and wine, then trail off partway through, "covfefe"-style. Announce that you're giving up pot because it interferes with your meth habit. Come on, throw us a bone here!

 

[gora321]

Kimbal Musk trolls Fox with 'Plant a Seed Day' in exchange about Tesla’s new chair

Don't mess with brothers! This one is the marketing expert level 9.3524.3577.

 

[Jayjs20]

Gotta admit, it's getting hard not to pour some money into nvidia, considering how they're down 45% or so in 1.5 months. They're still the dominate player in video cards. On the other hand, TSLA can drop back to 300 in a week for no reason, and I'm much more comfortable putting more money into TSLA than nvidia.

 

[Fact Checking]

What is going on with the production with Model 3? Any near assumptions?

I'd guess it's currently somewhere between 4k-5k/week, with the goal of hitting 75k in Q4.

Q3 was quite amazing, and even a simple repeat performance of that would give enough of a cash cushion for convertible notes payback and growth capex.

But I guess Q4 is going to be slightly better than Q3: i.e. some Q3->Q4 growth, strong year over year growth and robust margins.

 

[JBRR]

That's a really bad source to quote on monetary policy: mises.org is openly biased towards libertarian economic ideology, and their monetary model is really crappy in particular. Here's one of their biggest prediction failures back in 2009, where they predicted that there will be "hyperinflation" due to central banks increasing the monetary base:

There Will Be (Hyper)Inflation | Thorsten Polleit

The Path Toward Ever-Higher Inflation
The government controlled fiat-money regime is highly inflationary, as it allows for an increase in the stock of money mostly through bank credit in excess of real savings (circulation credit). The rising money stock pushes up prices — be it consumer or asset prices (such as stocks, housing, etc.).​

That "highly inflationary" outcome never happened in the ~10 years that followed, in fact inflation in the U.S. and the EU was below target:

The Great Depression is one of the great failure modes of quasi-libertarian monetary policy, and it's no surprise that libertarian thought got the Great Recession wrong as well - so please link to someone with a solid understanding of history, with no libertarian axe to grind and with a willingness to change their model if it is contradicted by data.

TL;DR: mises.org is not worth reading when it comes to how modern economies work - unless you want to use the material as entertainment (fiction), or as a contrarian indicator.

Valid points. I concede that.

 

[sweter]

I for one am rather annoyed by this 7k/wk news It reduces the amount of time I have to get a good price on options; I figured they wouldn't hit 7k/wk until late in the quarter, if they hit it this quarter at all. I nearly bought when the stock was near ~$330, but delayed in order to seek some advice from the forum and missed the chance. I may end up needing to lower my expected return goals.

The way I read Elon's words it's not 7k/week at all. I doubt we will see that sustained this quarter. It's the 17Q4 situation again: "we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week". Which they didn't achieve for another month or so.

VW I.D. Neo is supposed to start at €25k with a WLTP range of 330km (205 miles), meaning EPA of around 180mi, on a 48kWh battery pack, meaning an efficiency of ~85% of that of Model 3, which is what you'd expect with that form factor. 0-100kph in 8 seconds. 160 kph / 100mph top speed. Small 4-seater.

Not every EV has to be a Tesla-killer. This is huge market open for many. I for one am looking forward to see this car in action and starting at this price it will be very competitive to the Model 3 in Europe.

 

[gora321]

Kimbal Musk trolls Fox with 'Plant a Seed Day' in exchange about Tesla’s new chair

Don't mess with brothers! This one is the marketing expert level 9.3524.3577.

My God what a combination of neurons:
1.You get the negative question which tries to strengthen the negativity with practically no news (no added value).
2. You get the opportunity to repeat 5x your massage free of charge with very high attention of audience.
3. The main listener (journalist) repeats what he learned! That 6th time.
4. Fox news addressed heading Plant a Seed Day. That's 7th time in total.
5. Kimbal created bombshell for the noble and existential cause!
6. All goals reached!

I think it would be hard for journalists to approach Musks without extraordinary preparations.
They will have to approach with such times that are coming. Actually they will beg for interviews.

 

[shlokavica22]

The way I read Elon's words it's not 7k/week at all. I doubt we will see that sustained this quarter. It's the 17Q4 situation again: "we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3’s per week". Which they didn't achieve for another month or so.

Let's also not forget Christmas is approaching and they simply might want to make up for the days the lines will be shut off (I assume?). 7K rate won't necessary be maintained for the whole month.

Another big problem with Bitcoin, beyond its waste of energy and its Cosa Nostra friendly hostility towards accountability and law enforcement, is its built-in deflationary nature - such currencies have terrible crisis properties: one of the big contributing factors behind the Great Depression was the deflationary nature of the gold standard.

There are alt coins addressing that problem already.
For many, BTC is store of value right now and not a payment system. Gold, not currency.

 

[mutle]

Hey, quick question: are there any good sites for tracking the rollout of *high power* CCS stations? There are tons of sites that track CCS stations, but I've not seen any that let you limit them by power.

I run the site CCS/Combo Charge Map - Europe since 2014 and recently started tracking the power output where that information is known. I hope to add a way to filter the map to only show higher power stations soon, along with some other improvements.

 

[bobo]

That might give accurate data for the Nordic markets, but what about the rest of Europe? Also, unless I'm missing something, I see no easy way there to narrow down the list by power. The best I see is to go into the "list" page and then guess at what powers to look for via "find" in your browser, and cross-reference each one by country.

It seems weird that we don't have a better answer for how to do this. We're supposed to be tracking Tesla's "moats", right? How are we supposed to do that if we don't have a good way to track high power CCS deployments?

You are correct - there is currently no easy way to see that... so here is a screenshot from our analytics tool. This is the deployment of CCS in Sweden.
We have similar data for the Nordic market, but not as easy to visualize yet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

All the FAANG stocks futures are down more than TSLA this morning. Here's highlights: