I don't so much mean that a large number would be cross shopping only ICE vs BEV, but that some of them just don't care one way or the other whether it's a ICE, HEV, PHEV, or BEV, and are shopping based on other metrics.
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I don't so much mean that a large number would be cross shopping only ICE vs BEV, but that some of them just don't care one way or the other whether it's a ICE, HEV, PHEV, or BEV, and are shopping based on other metrics.
The latest but not greatest from VW or how to fall further behind in EVs.
VW will not deliver any EVs and Plug-ins any more until end of this year. This has been officially confirmed by the speaker from VW. Today they have a bottle neck to get the certification for Diesel and Gas cars done. That has been reported previously.
Because of that bottleneck they concluded and decided that, "EVs and Plug-Ins are comparably sold less often and for the reason they do not get priority." "EVs will be delivered again next year"
Volkswagen kann keine Elektroautos mehr ausliefern
For me its another testimony that VW has not understood the strategic relevance of VW EVs for the future of their business.
They could have prioritizes EVs to get them out on the street to show they have models too and its more to come. Instead they decided that short term revenue and profit is more important than long term success with profit and revenue.
Consumers will consider and remember VW (the brand) not to be a player in EVs for now. Even if the VW brand will bring good EVs out one day it will be more hard for them to change the consumer perception that they do not play in that field.
I am very concerned now, not because they loose some EV revenue in 2018 but I do not see the change in behavior and strategy that I did expect from VWs board from GAS&Diesel to a strategy making EVs a success.
VW will not deliver any EVs and Plug-ins any more until end of this year. This has been officially confirmed by the speaker from VW. Today they have a bottle neck to get the certification for Diesel and Gas cars done. That has been reported previously.
Because of that bottleneck they concluded and decided that, "EVs and Plug-Ins are comparably sold less often and for the reason they do not get priority." "EVs will be delivered again next year"
Volkswagen kann keine Elektroautos mehr ausliefern
For me its another testimony that VW has not understood the strategic relevance of VW EVs for the future of their business.
They could have prioritizes EVs to get them out on the street to show they have models too and its more to come. Instead they decided that short term revenue and profit is more important than long term success with profit and revenue.
Consumers will consider and remember VW (the brand) not to be a player in EVs for now. Even if the VW brand will bring good EVs out one day it will be more hard for them to change the consumer perception that they do not play in that field.
I am very concerned now, not because they loose some EV revenue in 2018 but I do not see the change in behavior and strategy that I did expect from VWs board from GAS&Diesel to a strategy making EVs a success.
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HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Another reason I would like to see a CCS adapter for the model 3.
One station is being installed about 40 miles from me in Commerce Georgia at the Walmart. A high-class location!
Should be finished in September.
350 and 150 KW stations to be located across the country.
Looks like they have eight stations up and operational.
The stations are being put in due to the VW fiasco.
"Over a ten year period ending in 2027, Electrify America will invest $2 billion in Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure and education programs in the United States. Of this $2 billion, $1.2 billion will be invested nationwide (in states other than California), while $800 million will be invested in California, the largest single ZEV market in the world. This investment represents the largest of its kind ever made, and it will provide long-overdue solutions to ZEV stakeholders"
Welcome to Electrify America | Locations
One station is being installed about 40 miles from me in Commerce Georgia at the Walmart. A high-class location!
Should be finished in September.
350 and 150 KW stations to be located across the country.
Looks like they have eight stations up and operational.
The stations are being put in due to the VW fiasco.
"Over a ten year period ending in 2027, Electrify America will invest $2 billion in Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure and education programs in the United States. Of this $2 billion, $1.2 billion will be invested nationwide (in states other than California), while $800 million will be invested in California, the largest single ZEV market in the world. This investment represents the largest of its kind ever made, and it will provide long-overdue solutions to ZEV stakeholders"
Welcome to Electrify America | Locations
Krugerrand
Meow
End of this year is only 5 months away. So not that long to wait. I’ve no idea if in 5 months they’ll delay again and I don’t care because not holding my breath for them to get their BEVness in order, ever.
Honestly, I hope they crash and burn along with all the other toe dragging OEMs but that might just me being cranky because the bananas at the store yesterday were all over ripe.
Mod: everyone, please stop posting duplicates of the Downfall video. There have been multiples posted in pretty much every thread, I'm getting tired of deleting the duplicates. --ggr.
Has anyone here done a back-of-napkin calculation of what Tesla earnings might be when the company is actually able to supply enough product to meet the market demand for its products?
Let’s say that in 5 years Tesla has finally built enough manufacturing capacity to satisfy sustainable annual demand for MS, MX, M3, MY, Roadster, Semi, pickup, Powewalls, solar roofs, etc. What might a reasonable estimate of total annual revenue look like? And then applying reasonable margin and cost assumptions, what amount of annual earnings does that imply?
I realize this requires making assumptions with enormous margins of error, but I think it’s even more erroneous to make assertions about a company’s valuation based on projections that do not go out long enough to take into account meeting a company's reasonable sustained annual demand.
Let’s say that in 5 years Tesla has finally built enough manufacturing capacity to satisfy sustainable annual demand for MS, MX, M3, MY, Roadster, Semi, pickup, Powewalls, solar roofs, etc. What might a reasonable estimate of total annual revenue look like? And then applying reasonable margin and cost assumptions, what amount of annual earnings does that imply?
I realize this requires making assumptions with enormous margins of error, but I think it’s even more erroneous to make assertions about a company’s valuation based on projections that do not go out long enough to take into account meeting a company's reasonable sustained annual demand.
Model3VINs on twitter said:
If I didn´t miss anything, this is the largest batch of VINs that has been registered so far. Looks like good demand and production capacity for dual motor!
Agree, I don't remember one so big.
BTW, Tesla was not done yet...
#Tesla registered 213 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 89320.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
ValueAnalyst
Closed
August of 2017: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
November of 2017: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
August of 2018: The limiting factor is skilled labor pool, as predicted.
Tesla University is long overdue.
November of 2017: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
August of 2018: The limiting factor is skilled labor pool, as predicted.
Tesla University is long overdue.
Krugerrand
Meow
Krugerrand
Meow
Didn’t Tesla just make a large payment to Nevada for the schooling system? Elon has his school humming along as well. Perhaps TU will come.
Building an ecosystem takes time. I wish they could go faster but nobody (other than a handful of us and a few others scattered around the globe) seems to understand what’s happening. There’s this huge opportunity for other companies and organizations to become part of this ecosystem build. I don’t get it. Can’t wrap my brain around the need and desire for so many to work against others and the greater good. Blind, deaf and dumb is all I can come up with.
FirebirdAlpha
Member
Did Tesla release the autopilot and safety data yet?
Elon promised that we'd get that raw data on the Q1 call.
Tesla will regularly release data about the safety of Autopilot, Elon Musk says
Elon promised that we'd get that raw data on the Q1 call.
Tesla will regularly release data about the safety of Autopilot, Elon Musk says
I suspect that the real problem is without the ability to sell the ICE cars they lose too much money on the BEVs, so they can't sell them either.
dc_h
Active Member
I’m creating a new one about mods trying to manage the threads.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
This is a little bit like throwing sod at the groundskeepers. I'd have hoped we'd be kinder than that. :-(I’m creating a new one about mods trying to manage the threads.
Edit: Clarity
dc_h
Active Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Other than chauffeur driven cars I don't think people in this class of cars qualify the drivetrain as being 100% irrelevant. And chauffeur driven cars in this class is restricted to maybe 10-20% in China?
And I don't see someone seriously considering a Tesla to be so anti-PHEV they actually prefer an ICE.
Anecdotally that is what I see hear around Los Angeles in my circle of friend and family. People comparing Model X to Cayenne PHEV and Model S to Panamerra PHEV. Not the ICE version.
Maybe Los Angeles is atypical but a rather large percentage of Tesla sales.
If in 5 years they are selling a million Model 3s at an average sell price of $40,000, with a 20% profit margin = $8bn annual profit
Then I ran out of napkin, you'll have to plug in your own numbers for everything else.
There is a handy spreadsheet for you to plug in your own numbers;
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
I'd think many wouldn't be too bothered if the PHEV was sold out (at least on the lot), if they otherwise liked the car, and would buy the ICE. Granted, this easily can vary regionally. People in California are far more likely to care about drivetrain than those here in Texas. I think you'd be more right in California for sure, but here in Texas I'd think it'd be more in the middle.
The 900m+ in reservations reported in Q2 are now either refunded or have been converted to non refundable cash as of when they opened all orders up starting July.
It will now be interesting to see how shorts deal with this reality of reservation conversions. Since many orders are getting a 3-5month delivery window, potentially much of this converted cash will still be there in Q3 cash&equivalents, all the while revenues and margins increase notably with potentially 2X-3X more m3 deliveries as compared to Q2 occur.
There is also the surprise potential of energy revenues and margins increasing as well. The second half of the year is traditionally the largest portion of yearly revenue for solar, so shorts shouldn’t sleep on these numbers either.
It’s always fascinating the so called analysts never ask any questions on Tesla Energy which is all the better for Elon to use as a suprise revenue item that not many pay attention to.
Bottomline, cash position is appearing to be a neutralized issue as evidence of production sustainability and real demand in terms of current order volume (50k+) into the end half steadily increasing (as noted by test drive to order conversion revealed in the conference call), short positions based on Tesla’s insolvency are extremely hazzardous.
Again, the big short whales haven’t covered yet, and it will be very interesting to see how they exit or figure out a revised talking point narrative to string along the stable of short traders till they do.
It will now be interesting to see how shorts deal with this reality of reservation conversions. Since many orders are getting a 3-5month delivery window, potentially much of this converted cash will still be there in Q3 cash&equivalents, all the while revenues and margins increase notably with potentially 2X-3X more m3 deliveries as compared to Q2 occur.
There is also the surprise potential of energy revenues and margins increasing as well. The second half of the year is traditionally the largest portion of yearly revenue for solar, so shorts shouldn’t sleep on these numbers either.
It’s always fascinating the so called analysts never ask any questions on Tesla Energy which is all the better for Elon to use as a suprise revenue item that not many pay attention to.
Bottomline, cash position is appearing to be a neutralized issue as evidence of production sustainability and real demand in terms of current order volume (50k+) into the end half steadily increasing (as noted by test drive to order conversion revealed in the conference call), short positions based on Tesla’s insolvency are extremely hazzardous.
Again, the big short whales haven’t covered yet, and it will be very interesting to see how they exit or figure out a revised talking point narrative to string along the stable of short traders till they do.
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