Government approves E- Vehicle policy to promote India as a manufacturing destination for EVs
The Union Government has approved a scheme to promote India as a manufacturing destination so that e
![pib.gov.in](https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/photo/2022/apr/ph20224636301.jpg)
EV policy as approved by Govt of India .
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Has anyone seen anything on V12.3 that suggests we won't be rich (again..) this year?
I might need to keep these threads warm:
Tesla Network prerequisites
Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model
Tesla to license Autopilot / FSD
Never underestimate exponential growth. One limiting factor was computer power (Dojo). We will soon have more than enough of it and with other millions of miles driven by Teslas around the word the perfect data source - us TESLA drivers - you can imagine. The big steps we already see from FSD should result in a wide rollout across North America before summer. Followed by parts of Europe at the end of 2024.Yes FSD v12.3 is looking very nice right now, but it isn't there yet. There is still a long ways to go before it's "robotaxi ready".
I doubt FSD sales will improve much in 2024 and contribute to our bottom line. I think it's much more likely to happen in 2025 or 2026 though. It's getting so close now that Level 5 does finally seem reasonably within reach.
I'd buy a Model 2 hot-hatch, in addition to our current Tesla fleet... would be perfect for city driving and weekly grocery shop, going to gigs, etc.I’m pretty sure the performance version of the Model 2 will have a very high demand in Europe. Mainly people that have a much bigger budget, but no desire to have a car the size of the Model 3.
Price is not the only reason to buy a car. Some people have hard limits on how much to spend on a car, and they will love the Model 2 (although somebody may need to calculate the TCO for them).
And my Model S already charges at 200 miles in 15 minutes, there’s no real reason why the Model 2 would charge slower.
Thanks Troy. I appreciate the response and the work you do to understand production and delivery numbers.Describing Tesla's Q1 deliveries as "light" would be an understatement. Here is data I use to calculate deliveries:
China: Weekly insurance numbers. This data is very reliable. In addition to that, we also get monthly China domestic sales numbers from CPCA (China Passenger Car Association), and historically, the two data sources have been always very close when we look at quarterly sales.
Europe: Each country in Europe releases its own monthly registration numbers. You can see these here. Many countries also release data before the month is over. The data quality is excellent.
US: There is no official sales data for the entire US. We never find out the actual numbers. The best way to calculate US sales after the quarter is over is to calculate Tesla sales in all other countries in the world and then subtract that number from the global number released by Tesla. That's what I do. The best way to calculate US sales during the quarter is to calculate inventory carried over from the last quarter to the current quarter, plus, all production in the US in this quarter, minus, estimated inventory at the end of this quarter. This calculation is complicated. I don't want to share the latest data I have but to give you an idea, here is what my inventory calculation looks like excluding this quarter and the last one:
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My method relies on calculating production from VIN data reasonably accurately. Unfortunately, Tesla doesn't release production by factory. They only release the global production number. In addition, we get China production numbers from CPCA. That means I need to calculate production for Fremont, Giga Texas and Giga Berlin. I use VIN data to do that. Normally, we never find out the actual numbers for any of these factories but in the last shareholder letter, Tesla mentioned an important number. They said, "in 2023, the Tesla Fremont factory produced nearly 560,000 vehicles".
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Tesla released the shareholder letter on January 24, 2024. Therefore we can go back and check what my number was before that. Here is the production table that I tweeted on January 3, 2024. I was calculating 558,838 for Fremont, pretty much in line with Tesla's "nearly 560,000" statement. This suggests my calculations for Giga Texas and Giga Berlin should be reasonably accurate too. I use VIN data for those factories too.
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As someone working in AI since ~10 years, I can say that this is the right point of view: never underestimate exponential growth. Anyone predicting that anything in AI "is at least n years out" is thinking linearly, not geometrically.Never underestimate exponential growth.
Only because S&P 500 Total Return doesn't have a 5 years history (see S&P 500 (TR) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance and S&P 500 (TR) (^SP500TR) Charts, Data & News - Yahoo Finance).That bottom one is a price chart? No dividends, so less useful.
Yes, it would be (is) worse bc of that. Still not a fan.Only because S&P 500 Total Return doesn't have a 5 years history (see S&P 500 (TR) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance and S&P 500 (TR) (^SP500TR) Charts, Data & News - Yahoo Finance).
But the diverging trend would be starker since Tesla doesn't issue dividends.
I don't get your math, taking into account inflation the 64k would be even less in 2019 Euros
I'm not that bullish on India, although I have some cash in an indian stocks ETF...but frankly 500m is pocket change for Tesla right now. I think now is maybe the time to make a step into that market. There is a limit to how big Tesla can grow while ignoring India, Africa and S America. Also India can potentially become a good location for solar power. When you can offer cheap solar power along with a no-maintenance EV, I think there is (in the long term) a good market there.Summarizing
-That’s minimum investment of $ 500 million USD in local manufacturing facilities
- to reach commercial production within 3 yrs
-A localization level of 25% by the 3rd year and 50% by the 5thyear will have to be achieved
- in the interim allowed to import upto 8000 Evs per year for total 40,000 EVs over 5 yrs with a lowered import duty tax at 15% ( currently this stands at 70%)
Never underestimate exponential growth. One limiting factor was computer power (Dojo). We will soon have more than enough of it and with other millions of miles driven by Teslas around the word the perfect data source - us TESLA drivers - you can imagine. The big steps we already see from FSD should result in a wide rollout across North America before summer. Followed by parts of Europe at the end of 2024.
The "Robotaxi" function should be right on time when the first cars designed for it roll out Gigafactory Austin next year.
Yes FSD v12.3 is looking very nice right now, but it isn't there yet. There is still a long ways to go before it's "robotaxi ready".
I doubt FSD sales will improve much in 2024 and contribute to our bottom line. I think it's much more likely to happen in 2025 or 2026 though. It's getting so close now that Level 5 does finally seem reasonably within reach.
Summarizing
-That’s minimum investment of $ 500 million USD in local manufacturing facilities
- to reach commercial production within 3 yrs
-A localization level of 25% by the 3rd year and 50% by the 5thyear will have to be achieved
- in the interim allowed to import upto 8000 Evs per year for total 40,000 EVs over 5 yrs with a lowered import duty tax at 15% ( currently this stands at 70%)
And yet you doI can agree that V.12.3 is not ready (didn't try, cannot judge),
Europe through February is similar to China, up YOY, but down to Q4. March is typically a big month and with Berlin being down about a week, there will be some impact. But that may hit more in April since I’m guessing most March deliveries are cars produced in February.
Then you have the US market. I don’t have any real data on production or deliveries, but Fremont and Austin seem to be cranking
the $7500 tax credit at the point of sale
I also agree with you on the Robotaxi timing. Gen 3 is slated to start production late next year, about a year and a half from today. If FSD keeps improving like it has been recently then I shudder to imagine how good it will be by then!![]()