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  1. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Total Addressable Market (i.e. the size of the market). This move helps make NACS the "Standard Oil" of the 21st Century. EDIT - and indirectly, this is a TAM increase for Tesla Energy. So many of the SuperCharging stations have Tesla Megapacks and Solar canopies. That's a demand lever...
  2. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not impossible, but right now Ford has a lot of fish to fry (more than Tesla).
  3. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Doubt Ford will be providing factories. Not unless they decide to build the $25k car in the "four points" style that Tesla has laid out. Ford hasn't adopted gigacasting yet, so they have a ways to go to be up to Tesla's manufacturing plans.
  4. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I would not be surprised to see the port location on 2024 and later Fords move. Kinda like gas ports are reasonably standardized (although on both sides).
  5. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    First NACS . . . next Tesla is selling FSD to Ford customers. You laugh now, but I'm not joking. Did anyone else pick up in the conversation they had how Tesla had been providing some assistance to Ford with "whole car software updates"? Farley admitted that was insanely hard to do, and that...
  6. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Single port. They will use an adapter for CCS.
  7. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    hrm, wonder if I should buy some long dated puts on the other EV charging companies . . . .
  8. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He just increased the TAM for supercharging, over 10 years likely many fold. To me, it's pretty obvious how this is a benefit for Tesla owners. Those not seeing it I bet were the same complaining about Model 3's clogging up superchargers before the Model 3 was released.
  9. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This quote from over there pretty much sums up their conflict: " Honestly, I am both "the Tesla supercharging network is excellent," and "Do I really want more of my money funding Elon Musk and the hateful things he says and does?" From a tech standpoint, this is a smart move. The Tesla...
  10. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    Sign the waiver. It's been reported before, it's standard fare because the remaining functionality of the Vision to USS replacement is being finished. So, you can stand on principle, miss a pretty good deal, and only have to wait for the code to complete, or drive your old car. Seems like a...
  11. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Twitter spaces specifically it was noted that Ford has Tesla Supercharger API access and is programming their app so that Ford owners will be able to charge at superchargers with their own app.
  12. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Heads are exploding over in the MachE forum (don't go there, trust me). Some feel betrayed. Some are delighted. Some that were complaining that Ford needed a better charging network but hated Elon are just flat out pissed off. Overall, well-received, but it's so damned funny to watch the...
  13. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    Right. Ford just announced they will use the Tesla NACS connector 2024 and forward. And Farley announced this on a Twitter Spaces with Elon. Elon's so toxic. :rolleyes:
  14. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    In actual news . . . Elon and Jim Farley are doing a Twitter Spaces in 30 minutes on Accelerating EV adoption. Honestly, surprised to see two CEOs that are competitors doing this. https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1eaJbrAPnBVJX
  15. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Going off the last Q1 data, which remove Auto GM calculations and replaced them with Adjusted EBITDA margin (non-GAAP), which is less precise because it lumps in all the business divisions and not auto-specific, we see YoY Q1/22 vs. Q1/23 dropped from 26.8% to 18.3%. But the red herring in this...
  16. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    I completely took his comments as sandbagging, but we'll just have to see.
  17. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    I know a lot of people that would be happy to take those pre-orders off your hands and jump the line.
  18. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    It was the "and whatever this is" comment. It's a Cybertruck. A vehicle with projected huge margins, with the largest TAM in North America, and an order backlog over 1M.
  19. bkp_duke

    FSD discussion

    Car was flashing warning info before he hit the curb, about cruise control being unavailable or something else.
  20. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Would be interesting to know more about what happened. "Noise from the bottom" to me is an indication he may have run over something very hard, and damaged the pack. It's rare, but it does happen (and was the reason for the titanium front protection bracket for the original S).
  21. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nasdaq up 1.5+% . . . TSLA barely staying green. Nope, no manipulation here. Nothing to see, move along now folks. :rolleyes:
  22. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Concur. There is a strong case for more like a 2-3T valuation by 2030. Everyone's mindset has changed because we are in a recession and stocks for the most part are markedly depressed. And my valuation number didn't even include pie-in-the-sky things like Optimus. I'm not even sure if I have...
  23. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm banking on FSD and Energy. Auto sales will continue to grow, but they are simply going to be the "vehicle" (pun intended) to sell FSD. This is a 10-year time horizon (and I'm the kind of guy that will never retire anyway - so the funds are all to pass on to my kids).
  24. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good question, I don't know the answer to that. But I have a mobile service appointment tomorrow for a CCS retrofit, so I'll ask the mobile tech if he knows (probably not, but worth a shot).
  25. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not happening till Highland, and even then I'm holding out for Tesla to release a Plaid 3 (@ZeApelido / Elon - pretty please?).
  26. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Spot on. I've got a 2018 M3P that I'm going to try to get upgraded to HW3 before next month. We have a road trip to Yosemite with some non-Tesla friends from the east coast and will be taking both cars. They will be driving the 3, we will have the Y with the dogs. Want them to get the "full...
  27. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    It's probably the most nimble 4th gen fighter there is. If the Ukrainians want to go after Russian jets for dogfights, this is the proper tool (handful of Su-57s aside - but Russia won't send those to UKR airspace). It's also a very VERY capable long-range bombing platform with far better...
  28. bkp_duke

    Russia/Ukraine conflict

    I had an employee who was a retired F16 instructor. The runway needs of the F16 are legit and no joke. He once said "the Migs and Sukhoi's can take off from just about anything, but the F16 needs a baby's butt smooth runway free of even the smallest debris". Not an insurmountable obstacle...
  29. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    BINGO! And yet some here can't do simple math to understand THAT is the primary reason for the drop in EPS. Yes, there were price cuts, but that just brought prices and margins back to 2020/21 levels, nothing more. Vehicles sold and revenue continue to grow ~50% YoY. What happens when CapEx...
  30. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    Herculean? You believe DeSantis' chances are that good? 🤣
  31. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    I also wonder, since I haven't listened, was it every participant having issues, or just one? I could totally see Elon doing this from his jet on Starlink and having a piss-poor connection (has happened on one of his streams before).
  32. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Patience grasshopper. Compare the number of service centers now to 2 years ago. And Toyota/Lexus has been building their network out for 50 years here in the states.
  33. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    It doesn't scale like that. I literally build these kinds of things out on Private Clouds for customers. They probably mis-allocated resources to one single part of the flow (i.e. intake server or something). I would be very very surprised if they had mis-allocated resources on the broadcast...
  34. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    Agreed, but it was a political announcement. It's not like WW3 had started and Twitter was trying to replace the Emergency Broadcast Service. Was it embarrassing? Absolutely. Is Elon actively working on mitigation at this minute? I would bet on it.
  35. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    Love when people try to take an N=1 and make it apply to everything. Meh, they failed on this livestream. The people here happy about it would have been moaning if it were for the other political party, that's what's really going on here. Did you guys jump for joy in happiness when Starship...
  36. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    CapEx for 2023 vs. 2022 is supposed to be ~2B higher. DETAILS matter. You are cherry picking, and you know it. Are you going to be singing praises for Q2 2023 when earnings are a SMASH HIT above last year due to China lockdowns stopping GF Shanghai? Probably not. A more reasonable metric...
  37. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    FYI - Tesla could turn on 360 view tomorrow (the code is essentially already there in how the car processes images). They don't, because the patent is owned by Nissan and they would have to pay royalties on every single car they enabled it for. They won't do that. But (like when the LFP...
  38. bkp_duke

    Coronavirus

    China already has a population drop problem, this will simply exacerbate this.
  39. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    In news relevant to this thread: https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-cleared-twitter-lawsuit-dismissed/
  40. bkp_duke

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Multiple computers, etc. (not ECUs, actual computers - the MCU, the gateway, and a 3rd I can't remember the name right now). They make a lot more use of ethernet than other autos. This from my personal experience with two salvage S's.
  41. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As is typical, 3%, 5%. It's a VERY small but VERY VOCAL minority that wants us to believe that is how we all should think . . . but we don't. Nuff said, Elon's the boss, and the overwhelming majority of shareholders want him right where he is.
  42. bkp_duke

    Investor Engineering Discussions

    Analog? Tesla's already utilize a lot of ethernet in their systems. It's been the godsend of those that have wanted to root into the car (i.e. salvage cars and aftermarket support).
  43. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I still had the text history from delivery for our Model Y, so I was sure this was legit and from Tesla. I just don't need any more solar. Now . . . if he had said Plaid Model 3, I would have been all over it (wishful thinking).
  44. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Apparently Tesla is doing some "advertising" to their existing customer base. I got this text no less than 5 minutes ago. Hey this is Cam from Tesla. I hope you have been enjoying your Tesla! I am reaching out to see if you would be interested in exploring Tesla Solar to reduce your Electric...
  45. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Markets were WAY different in 2020 as well. Tesla was going on a run, not had just had 50+% of it's value lobbed off by the idiots at the FED. People ALSO vote with their pocketbooks. I would argue more so than politically.
  46. bkp_duke

    Elon & Twitter

    When the mods click on a bunch of posts to move/delete and send a message to say the original poster, that message gets sent to everyone that is in the grouping of messages they selected. That's my understanding of how the forum software works, at least.
  47. bkp_duke

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Provide the source for 3 years please. I've searched the transcripts, re-watched the presentation a dozen times, I can't find that. What I CAN find is the below. Battery day was Sept 22, 2020. The below graph clearly shows a 5 year trajectory change. Do you know someone personally that...