Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Likewise you’d pay a lot of money for a car made by Tesla but not one by a guy who works 7 days a week making one in his garage.

Custom built vehicles often get extremely high prices.

It’s a complete fallacy that hard work should be compensated equally. That’s the whole point of the pricing system and capitalism, it determines what something is worth, completely fairly and equitably.

So the CEO compensated with millions for a failing business is fair and equitable? We'll just have to disagree about the state of the current system.

 

[GSP]

Great thread on the advantages of the 48V system over and above reduced copper, and how it helps enable the unboxed next gen manufacturing technique.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659330720610004994

IDK about most of the assertions in that tweet thread. It seems that advanages from 48 V are being mixed up with advantages of a highly multiplexed wiring system. I doubt 48 V vs 12 V helps modular assembly, but IMO only the multiplex architecture does that, and could do the same with 12 V.

Also the assertion that modular assembly will result in “never having to stop the line due to a missing part” sounds like fantasy. The problems of finished vehicles with missing parts will remain. That is a very undesirable outcome regardless of how the vehicle was assembled.

However, the advantage of reduced copper is a very big deal, so 48 V will be a huge cost advantage for Tesla vs. other EV and ICE vehicles. It should also fix any concern about copper resources being capable of scaling EVs to replace all ICE vehicles.

GSP

 

[Artful Dodger]

My gut tells me Tesla needs Franz to redesign the Optimus for better curb appeal. Stainless steel so customers can choose the wrap they like.

"Form follows Function"... it's still early days.

Cheers!

 

[bkp_duke]

Oh really? Please explain what the current bottleneck is for limited DBE yield, because Tesla hasn't told us lately.

What they had explicitly said was that originally the calendaring machinery was getting dented rolling the material into a film. Conjecture / discussion / youtube videos then they were changing roller material, # of rollers, and trying to cool / freeze the material before going into the rollers.

Are those still the issues? If not, what is? Does anyone know? Considering this is cost a good amount of profit the last few quarters and has limited growth, don't you kinda think you would like to know?

BTW the limited growth most definitely showed up in limited Powerwall production in 2022. If you remember a while ago (I think Summer 2021), Musk was quite confident that Powerwall production would grow immensely in 2022. Then it didn't happen, at all. Likely because they had to take that 2170 supply and throw it at Model Y.



Please explain where he said 5-6 years. He said 3 years to achieve all the cost savings. We are near 3 years and have achieved negative cost savings.

Provide the source for 3 years please. I've searched the transcripts, re-watched the presentation a dozen times, I can't find that.

What I CAN find is the below. Battery day was Sept 22, 2020. The below graph clearly shows a 5 year trajectory change.

Do you know someone personally that was up on stage on Battery Day? I do.

 

[hobbes]

FSD beta drive in SFO city traffic, so much going on. Impressive progress in path planning and assertiveness, but still a lot to do, too.

 

[mongo]

IDK about most of the assertions in that tweet thread. It seems that advanages from 48 V are being mixed up with advantages of a highly multiplexed wiring system. I doubt 48 V vs 12 V helps modular assembly, but IMO only the multiplex architecture does that, and could do the same with 12 V.

48V allows feeding multiple circuits from a reasonably sized shared feed. That is a key enabler of the distributed/ modular control architecture.

 

[Artful Dodger]

48V allows feeding multiple circuits from a reasonably sized shared feed. That is a key enabler of the distributed/ modular control architecture.

True, plus the PoE standard (802.3af or "Power over Ethernet") is 48v. This allows for a single cable to each device, which also decreases the cable count by 2x. Less wiring, simpler build.

Cheers!

 

[Opus BC fan]

Looking good right out of the gate today...

 

[Speedr117]

IDK about most of the assertions in that tweet thread. It seems that advanages from 48 V are being mixed up with advantages of a highly multiplexed wiring system. I doubt 48 V vs 12 V helps modular assembly, but IMO only the multiplex architecture does that, and could do the same with 12 V.

Also the assertion that modular assembly will result in “never having to stop the line due to a missing part” sounds like fantasy. The problems of finished vehicles with missing parts will remain. That is a very undesirable outcome regardless of how the vehicle was assembled.

However, the advantage of reduced copper is a very big deal, so 48 V will be a huge cost advantage for Tesla vs. other EV and ICE vehicles. It should also fix any concern about copper resources being capable of scaling EVs to replace all ICE vehicles.

GSP

The efficiency comes from different lines stopping and starting, in parallel, vs. the whole line. Add in some buffer of completed sections at the end of the line where the pieces are finally joined together, and that's where the improved efficiency and throughput should come from. That's how I see it anyway (and I hope the way I said it makes sense).

 

[SOULPEDL]

MMs blowing off some steam today I see...
Cheers!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Custom built vehicles often get extremely high prices.

So the CEO compensated with millions for a failing business is fair and equitable? We'll just have to disagree about the state of the current system.

On CEO (and sports star) compensation … you have the ability to see into the future then do you? Sports GMs are the most ruthless cutthroat executives going … and yet they sometimes give $40M/yr contracts to busts. Kinda hard to predict the future, you make the best guess at the time.

Thats one reason why many public company CEO compensation is tied to stock price. You only reward the CEO if the company actually does well.

Another common fallacy is comparing the compensation of CEOs and the janitor pointing out that they work equally hard. First, that’s actually not true, the CEO typically forgoes a happy married life, drinks a lot to relieve excessive stress and rarely sees their kids while the janitor works 9-5. But even assuming it is, if the janitor makes a mistake or does a poor job, the company keeps on functioning just fine. If the CEO makes a mistake or does a poor job, the company can go bankrupt taking down everyone’s job. The higher up in a company you go, the more leverage you have to effect change across more and more of the company and thus the compensation MUST be higher to attract really good talent or else poor decision making at various levels will doom the company.

Just ask Anheuser-Busch about that.

 

[GSP]

48V allows feeding multiple circuits from a reasonably sized shared feed. That is a key enabler of the distributed/ modular control architecture.

Why is this a key enabler? Smaller connectors are better, buy why would they be necessary to enable multiplexed wiring? Off the shelf multi-way automotive connectors are available with small pins for signals and larger pins for 12 V power, and multiple pins for 12 V+, and for 12V- can be used for even higher currents.

Tesla’s new modular assembly is enabled by designs that allow painting before the body is assembled, vs. welded assembly that must be done before paint. Multiplex wiring with small connectors helps, but IMO is not needed for Tesla’s new process, as was asserted in that tweet thread.

GSP

 

[SOULPEDL]

And 182.5 it is

 

[2daMoon]

Why is this a key enabler? Smaller connectors are better, buy why would they be necessary to enable multiplexed wiring? Off the shelf multi-way automotive connectors are available with small pins for signals and larger pins for 12 V power, and multiple pins for 12 V+, and for 12V- can be used for even higher currents.

Tesla’s new modular assembly is enabled by designs that allow painting before the body is assembled, vs. welded assembly that must be done before paint. Multiplex wiring with small connectors helps, but IMO is not needed for Tesla’s new process, as was asserted in that tweet thread.

GSP

Consider how much reduction comes from also sending data over the power lines.

Increasing voltage gets lower current advantage (smaller conductor), piggybacking data on those wires further reduces additional wiring requirement. ( Best part is no part )

This illustrates yet another example of bringing proven strategies from the electronics industry ( POE, as mentioned by @Artful Dodger ) into auto design and manufacturing.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I feel much better about the stock market now. Thanks!
(Your argument is ridiculous)

I was talking about the economy, and specifically products/services that people buy, not the stock market. The stock market has a gambling element to it, mixed in with predictions about future worth of very complex entities (companies).

The vast majority of purchases people make in a non inflationary or non scarce environment (gotta put all these ridiculous disclaimers in since someone will try to argue by coming up with a corner case that has nothing to do with the central argument), are made with regard to utility right now, not future utility.

The point being that a non-distorted capitalism model (which we don’t have, our economy has many distortions) prices goods according to their utility and availability. Look, this is Econ 101, why do I even have to argue this? It’s like arguing whether or not statistical mechanics works, or whether chemistry as a science works.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Depends on where the farm is. In the county I am in there is an annual tax on the tools of your business. So they absolutely tax tractors, typewriters, computers, mechanic's tools, etc.

Yep, when I owned a small business most recently, there was this annual “personal property tax” which taxed the value of every business asset that wasn’t property. So anything that could be moved, which would include robots…

 

[wtlloyd]

I was talking about the economy, and specifically products/services that people buy, not the stock market. The stock market has a gambling element to it, mixed in with predictions about future worth of very complex entities (companies).

The vast majority of purchases people make in a non inflationary or non scarce environment (gotta put all these ridiculous disclaimers in since someone will try to argue by coming up with a corner case that has nothing to do with the central argument), are made with regard to utility right now, not future utility.

The point being that a non-distorted capitalism model (which we don’t have, our economy has many distortions) prices goods according to their utility and availability. Look, this is Econ 101, why do I even have to argue this? It’s like arguing whether or not statistical mechanics works, or whether chemistry as a science works.

"The point being that a non-distorted capitalism model (which we don’t have, our economy has many distortions) prices goods according to their utility and availability. Look, this is Econ 101, why do I even have to argue this? It’s like arguing whether or not statistical mechanics works, or whether chemistry as a science works."

I live in the real world, not one where academic arguments shape reality. You're going to trip over yourself backpedaling so fast.
Your argument is false. Everything is rigged to favor those who can most influence. This is why concentration of wealth is a death spiral for a civilization. I'm not going to spell it out here, everyone has played the game of Monopoly at some point in their life. Where do the losers go?

 

[mongo]

Why is this a key enabler? Smaller connectors are better, buy why would they be necessary to enable multiplexed wiring? Off the shelf multi-way automotive connectors are available with small pins for signals and larger pins for 12 V power, and multiple pins for 12 V+, and for 12V- can be used for even higher currents.

Tesla’s new modular assembly is enabled by designs that allow painting before the body is assembled, vs. welded assembly that must be done before paint. Multiplex wiring with small connectors helps, but IMO is not needed for Tesla’s new process, as was asserted in that tweet thread.

GSP

Wire crossection.
For equal power loss (self heating) at the same voltage, running 4 circuits on the same power cable requires 16x the copper of a single circuit and 4x the copper of the original 4 circuit bundle. That is equivalent to 6 AWG increases.
Going to 4x the voltage allows 1/4 the total crossection with a shared feed (size of original single circuit).

It also helps that LEDs are lower draw than incandescents.

For equal voltage drop, the bussed wire can be the original size of one circuit.

Spoiler: Maths

P=I^2*R
Four 1A loads:
P= 4*1^2*R=4*R
One 4 Amp load:
P'= 1*4^2*R' = 16*R'
P=P'
4*R = 16*R'
R'=1/4*R meaning it needs 4 times the crossection
Dropping current by 1/4 due to 48V
P'' = 1*1^2*R''
P'' = R''
4R = R'' meaning the 48V has equivalent loss in cable with only 1/4 the crossection (4 times the resistance). All four circuits can be handled by one of the original wires

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The weekend is over. So is the discussion about capitalism.

 

[GSP]

Wire crossection.
For equal power loss (self heating) at the same voltage, running 4 circuits on the same power cable requires 16x the copper of a single circuit and 4x the copper of the original 4 circuit bundle. That is equivalent to 6 AWG increases.
Going to 4x the voltage allows 1/4 the total crossection with a shared feed (size of original single circuit).

It also helps that LEDs are lower draw than incandescents.

For equal voltage drop, the bussed wire can be the original size of one circuit.

Spoiler: Maths

P=I^2*R
Four 1A loads:
P= 4*1^2*R=4*R
One 4 Amp load:
P'= 1*4^2*R' = 16*R'
P=P'
4*R = 16*R'
R'=1/4*R meaning it needs 4 times the crossection
Dropping current by 1/4 due to 48V
P'' = 1*1^2*R''
P'' = R''
4R = R'' meaning the 48V has equivalent loss in cable with only 1/4 the crossection (4 times the resistance). All four circuits can be handled by one of the original wires

Of course. Please note that I acknowledged that the reduced copper use is very significant. It was the other assertions that I see little merit in.

GSP