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Why is leasing blank? I expect Auto Sales Rev around 19.0b. Margins, opex, restructuring, etc. all look fine.

Different parts of the same chip. The original FSD chip had 8 ARM cores right next to the NN accelerator. I assume the latest chip uses a similar design. I mostly agree with your points. Demand has softened, forcing Tesla to cut production and pricing. But inventory being unexpectedly stuck on...

Was Troy also TSLAQ when his delivery estimate was almost 6% too high in Q1? No. Production costs are recognized when the car is sold. There are a lot of complicating details, e.g. LIFO, FIFO and my favorite GIGO, but at a high level I think of it as each VIN getting COGS assigned to it on the...

That's generally true now, but it depends on the terms negotiated with these third party leasing companies. Especially "residual value guarantees". Tesla used to devote many paragraphs to this in the 10-K (especially back in the day when they also offered RVGs to retail customers and got slapped...

I agree about price targets. But it's not too early to call the operating targets used to build those price targets. Thanks for summarizing ARK's forecasts over time and including both pre- and post-split numbers. Very helpful. I've bookmarked it for easy reference. I'm going to focus on...

In 2021 ARK's 2025 price target was $1000 ($3k before the 2nd split), based on 5-10m car sales and $507b revenue.

I'm sorry, but Waymo's explanation is useless. It doesn't matter whether the sensors failed or not. In fact, it'd be better if they had. Instead this was a fundamental failure of their entire system design, a violation of the First Commandment: Thou shalt not run into things. AVs will make...

Tesla produced and delivered 1.8m+ vehicles in 2023. More than 30x Rivian. Legacy can make EVs, but can only sell them in volume when forced to by quotas. Startups Rivian and Lucid have the same problem. None have a fraction of Musk's marketing prowess. Unfortunately auto is a volume business...

It's 9 weeks. April 4 - June 6. I laid this out in my earlier reply to you. You can find the actual notices with applicable manufacturing dates at the NHTSA recall website.

Don't be ridiculous, almost all businesses get along just fine without rapid growth. Waymo is not most businesses, they need huge scale to survive. I'm a fan of their technology (though less so after PoleGate). It's their business metrics that worry me. They already invited those 100k over the...

Q1 was -8.5% y/y. Don't let seasonal effects distort your thinking. I agree it looks like a full year decline. Q2 was looking really bad, but recent numbers out of China and Europe offer some encouragement. Q3 is an easy comp. If it's close Musk will pull out all the stops in Q4.

This makes no sense. A waitlist exists when demand exceeds supply. The waitlist is gone because supply is now sufficient. I'm not saying the fleet will stay at 300 cars forever. But it will until they figure out how to grow demand. Until today each time they wanted to grow the fleet and...

Rivian market cap barely exceeded their cash balance due to significant survival risk, now alleviated.

Only generating enough demand to keep ~300 cars busy in one of the world's best ride-hail markets is really bad news for scaling.

3878 was through April 4, 11,688 was through June 6, so 7810 in 9 weeks or 868/week. Tesla's "xxx in a week" is always a surge number, but they know investors love to extrapolate.

Great news for people who want to ride. Bad news for their business model.

Here is Ford's May 2024 sales report. They release a new one every month. It shows May '24 vs. May '23 plus YTD for both years. It breaks down sales by model, including a couple sub-models like the all-electric F150 Lightning. They also show totals for car/SUV/truck and BEV/hybrid/ICE. Contrary...

It gives a clue that the oncoming car is going straight and the white SUV is yielding. If the oncoming car turns the white SUV is also free to turn. You release the accelerator to position your foot over the brake. Waymo doesn't need to do that. It looks to me like braking and steering...

Collision avoidance video also sucks for me, I'd estimate 10 fps. Of course it might be Twitter than sucks instead of Waymo. Or maybe Twitter's algorithms intentionally make Waymo videos look like crap :) Crash numbers over 14.8m miles: Injury crashes - Waymo 12, humans 42 Police-reported...

Yes, and non-recourse to Ford itself. To be fair, a bunch of the 127b current assets I mentioned are also in Ford Motor Credit. I'm not recommending F as an investment, just pointing out that TSLA's 50b current assets don't rule out a 50b market cap. Heck, AAPL briefly traded below cash just...

He said 10x P/E. He also expects earnings to fall 50% this year, to around $1.50. 10 * 1.50 = 15.00 Ford market cap is 47b with current assets of 121b. How dare Mr. Lekander question 1 billion bots a year on Mars.....

It carries it's own telephone pole around with it to do battle with those delinquent ones that hang out in alleys....

Even 30% efficient panels would only produce 10 kW of the 120 kW consumed at highway speeds. And that's 10 kW at high noon on a cool, cloudless day in the southernmost US states. Far less kW at most times in most areas and 0 kW at night. That mostly came from dumping AC induction in favor of...

It just means you hold until death. Or donate to charity when you're 90, like Warren Buffett. He literally went down to the bank and got his Berkshire Hathaway share certificate out of his safe deposit box, where it had sat untouched for 50+ years.

Yes. The 300 miler metro area truck is the sweet spot. It solves all kinds of problems diesel causes for cities without any real disadvantages. Long haul is the opposite.

Tesla avoids all manner of problems by requiring a human driver. Driverless is a completely different ball game. No need to bet. Just go to the Waymo thread and follow the link to Waymo's recall and (incomplete) explanation. Along with our discussion. Waymo's back office infrastructure has...

Most Semi will be LFP.

She says progress is exponential. That happens when you're a long way away. As you near autonomy progress becomes asymptotic. There's a famous chart of this, but I can't seem to find it. You know that's not true. Fleet Response gets cars unstuck in almost all cases. Only in rare cases do they...

There are other threads for solar. It's been flogged to death. Residential rooftop can be very lucrative for a homeowner with high local electric rates and sufficient subsidies. Especially the mother lode subsidy -- 1:1 net metering. But not everyone has high electric rates and 1:1 NEM doesn't...

Pretty sure it's still FSD-S. Employee in the driver's seat, paying attention. Eventual expansion to public beta testers. "Once Tesla receives MIIT approval, company employees will be allowed to test FSD on public roads, followed by an allowance for Chinese users, the report says."

I'm sure the HD mapping NNs they run offline are vastly more sophisticated than the in-car perception system. I know they've reduced the amount of human curation, but I doubt their system is good enough to take humans out of the loop altogether. I think @willow_hiller may be on the right track...

I think Fleet Response always handled such cases in the past. In fact, Waymo's Fleet Response blog article has this scenario -- FR directs a car to go off the mapped driveable space onto a private driveway to help unclog a road. PoleGate shows multiple errors. First, the map was wrong. The...

Insurance registrations are informative, but I don't put too much stock in any single week. The official monthly numbers show May YTD flat vs. 2023 and QTD +5%. Growth has stalled in China until new models come out, but 0% financing is holding the line. Even if June ends up down a bit it's not a...

Cars return to depot nightly. OTA seems kinda pointless.

I have most of the China numbers in a Google spreadsheet, just let me know which ones you want.

This DMV web page has links to their different AV programs and permits. If you follow the links for "Testing with a Safety Driver" and "Driverless Testing" they show requirements to report collisions and disengagements. But the Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Program page has no such requirements...

Fossil externalities are the issue. In the west fossil receives very little in actual subsidies. In the US, for example, subsidies are in the 15-20b/year range while taxes are >10x that. And that 15-20b includes coal and NG, used to generate electricity for EVs. It also includes stuff like...

You're wrong and owe @Usain an apology. As @MP3Mike notes these DMV reports only cover operations under Waymo's DMV testing permits (which typically have safety drivers). These days Waymo mostly operates under their DMV and CPUC deployment permits. Those reporting requirements are much...

Nobody discloses these proprietary metrics, but we can make informed guesses. JJRicks made videos for >100 full rides, mostly in Phoenix back in 2020-21 plus a few more recent ones in Phoenix and SF. He tries to get Waymo stuck. Fleet Response was involved maybe 1 in 10 trips early, much less...

Zero moving parts, 13W and sub-$500 in volume. Not quite as good as Waymo's units, but solid state lidar specs are improving rapidly. https://www.cepton.com/vista-x90-plus/reveal

It's a load of manure. And she's not dumb, which means she's being disingenuous. Not a great look, especially if trying to demonstrate the board is not a bunch of captive sycophants. The 2.3b vs. 25b is simply a GAAP technical issue. It has zero effect on the actual economic cost to...

You don't know their costs. Simple extrapolation says 3 years to 50k, so summer 2027. When do you predict Tesla will have 50k driverless robotaxis in service? How will Tesla will avoid these costs? They can start a service with safety drivers today. I'm sure they will on 8/8, along with...

To me "intervene" implies pre-emptive action. I have no idea how Elon defines it (but we know he's "aspirational", lol). CA is the only state I know of that requires any disengagement reporting (which Tesla ignores), but even CA leaves the definitions open to wildly varying interpretations...

They delivered them to third party leasing companies like LeasePlan. The cars made their way into end user hands over many months.

No. These were "employee cars", not what we in the US think of as company cars. It's a fringe benefit/tax dodge. There was a big cliff on the tax dodge part at the end of 2019 and Tesla exploited it to the max. Shanghai Y exports have dropped dramatically. 5.6k in April, down from 22.3k a year...

They claim positive gross margin by Q4. That's still a long way from a net profit. As for the updates, they're mostly focused on COGS. I don't see much that helps their competitive position. Their problem is the same as the US legacies, Scaringe can't sell enough to achieve production economies...

He also has "more real-time global economic data in one head than anyone ever". That's how he perfectly predicted the "severe recession" that started in early 2023 /s I've seen this number, too. But FWHA reports 3.196 trillion VMT in 2022. Statista shows 233m licensed drivers in 2021 (source...

These are end customer sales. Any time you see headlines like "Ford reports 2.6 million sales" or "US auto market hits 3.9m in quarter" they refer to end customer sales. There are a couple of exceptions, e.g. dealers buying "demo" cars, but they're rounding errors. OEMs report revenue and COGS...

I think I read Baidu has 1200 sq km in one city, which is 460 sq miles. That's consistent with Waymo's "largest in US" claim.

BEVs were 13% of light vehicle sales in Europe from January-April this year, PHEVs another 8% HEVs were 30% in April and close to that YTD Conventional Diesel (~12%) and petrol make up the rest. BEV+PHEV share has been 20% give or take since 2021. It will jump to 30% next year when EU 95g's...