Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

Then, it is not even far-fetched, considering actual practical evolution of perovskite and others in solar panels:

LONGi sets a new world record of 33.9% for the efficiency of crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem solar cells -LONGi

LONGi announced today that it has set a new world record of 33.9% for the efficiency of crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem solar cells.

www.longi.com

We may not be too far away from being able to top semi-tractors and trailers with actually usable and practical solar power generation to produce longer ranges so batteries need not do the entire job.

Even 30% efficient panels would only produce 10 kW of the 120 kW consumed at highway speeds. And that's 10 kW at high noon on a cool, cloudless day in the southernmost US states. Far less kW at most times in most areas and 0 kW at night.

My reasoning is based on my 2014 P85D range of 265 miles my 2022 S Plaid range of 396 miles in the same physical space. Has that rate of improvement suddenly stopped?

That mostly came from dumping AC induction in favor of permanent magnet motors and upgrading power electronics from IGBT to SiC MOSFET. Nickel-based battery improvements have been glacial. Maybe 1-2% a year. LFP/LFMP/etc. improved a bit faster. They're also safer and much more cost-effective over thousands of cycles. Life cycle cost is what fleets care about.

Sure 300 miles of range is sufficient, but even then they will want the maximum payload possible. Will the cheapness of LFP offset the reduced revenue from a lower payload capacity?

The pack-level weight advantage in heavy duty (e.g. Chinese buses) is not that large. Maybe half a ton for a 300 mile Semi. Once you match diesel payload there's little benefit to going further for companies with mixed fleets. Which will be almost all of them the rest of this decade.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Sure glad we got Barron's advising people that $TSLA wont top $200 until a 'more major' event:

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Paywalled of course, must be a light FUD day due to $TSLA being up.

It's just the Hangover from last week's shorting. But it does have some spring in it. I wonder who's loading up today?

 

[samppa]

In 1980, IBM forecast that from 1981 to 1985, the worldwide demand for personal computers would be 241,000. The correct answer was 25 million.

The reason IBM was so far off is exactly the reason you cite about bots. They didn't consider that the PC was multi-function. Its utility was limited only by the human imagination.

That's just what we will see with humanoid robots.

And to answer your question, we will need so many because there are so many things we can dream up for the bots to do.

Expect a lot of pushback once people realise bots will take their jobs.

Our society is already very polarized between employed and unemployed, it's gonna get worse.. I really can't see governments making the needed changes for bot-enabled-econony (hah I made that word up)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It's just the Hangover from last week's shorting. But it does have some spring in it. I wonder who's loading up today?

Prob EM buying

 

[samppa]

But you will finance it and it will cut more from your budget than the payment. No more housekeeper, lawnboy, pool guy, nail salon, hair salon, laundry service, meal prep, etc.

Very limited number of people have any of those that you count in yout budget.

 

[advocate8]

Trolls troll.

And the weak call names.

 

[insaneoctane]

The previous page of this thread has started to sound like science fiction...

 

[larmor]

Every middle-class household will have at least one.

Every middle-class household Amazon delivery truck will have at least one.

 

[wtlloyd]

The previous page of this thread has started to sound like science fiction...

You, ummmm, missed the whole thing here about electric cars that drive themselves, and reusable rockets that land on their tails like God and Wernher von Braun intended?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1802787641340952861

Masterplan 4

Thread here:
Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3

 

[Leftlane22]

Sounds like a future where humanoids’ main job will be creating more humanoids. With 8 billion +/- people in the world, and a significantly smaller # than that who are working or in developed countries that would/could support this, it makes 1 bil humanoids sound crazy. Replacement theory isn’t enough, that’s for sure. Not sure who will have even $20k to buy one when they have been displaced from their jobs. Yes, I know I can’t even imagine the unknowable that might be coming down in the future (does anyone?)….but this idea scares me more than excites me.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Quite hilarious anyone is taking that valuation seriously.

Just over 1bn new smartphones are sold each year. The ASP is below $1,000. But the demand for a humanoid robot priced at ~$20k is...also going to be 1bn units/year?

Apple, which is essentially created the smartphone market and has the largest marketshare, has sold ~2.5bn iPhones since inception. And that's for a ~$1,000 product.

You may be insufficiently optimistic.

A smart phone is only so useful; a humanoid robot, working 23/7/365 has orders of magnitude greater value . . . .

 

[DarkandStormy]

But you will finance it and it will cut more from your budget than the payment. No more housekeeper, lawnboy, pool guy, nail salon, hair salon, laundry service, meal prep, etc.

I do none of those things. So how will it "cut more" from my budget?

 

[DarkandStormy]

You may be insufficiently optimistic.

A smart phone is only so useful; a humanoid robot, working 23/7/365 has orders of magnitude greater value . . . .

Why stop at $25tn? Why not $100tn? Or $250tn?

Since we're just making up numbers.

 

[Usain]

The number of people with a spare $20k is extremely limited.

They no longer need to own a car. Might as well spend the savings on a bot. Or they can rent a bot.

Businesses and governments will also buy a lot of bots.

The whole economy changes.

 

[Skryll]

In response to dark and etormy saying :
The number of people with a spare $20k is extremely limited.

They no longer need to own a car. Might as well spend the savings on a bot. Or they can rent a bot.

Businesses and governments will also buy a lot of bots..

To control the spare people

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1802761750003187962

support

 

[aronth5]

And to answer your question, we will need so many because there are so many things we can dream up for the bots to do.

As someone like many here who grew up before the internet, PC's etc. I am always struck by the creativity people have to create great apps that had never been thought of before. Just like you said people will now dream up and create things for bots to do that cannot be comprehend today but in the future will be obvious. How many times have you seen a great mobile phone app and thought "why didn't I think of that?"

 

[Thumper]

Would like to support Alexandra's Survey Monkey effort, but no way I am sending my stock info off to somewhere (who knows) on the internet.

 

[SOULPEDL]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1802761750003187962

support

It's quick, all yes for me.