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  1. mershaw2001

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    It looks like spwr got a nice upgrade. I didn't see when this upgrade came out, but mid day it was running up from 28 to 28.60+ pretty rapidly. SunPower price target raised to $39 from $32 at Citigroup Citigroup raised its price target for SunPower to $39 after meeting with management...
  2. mershaw2001

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    Larger than usual volume today. A sharp down spike in the morning that moves about 5%. No real bad news. All looking good for SPWR having a capitulation bottom. If the market moves up and we don't see SPWR collapse through the rest of the day, I think 27.15 was it.
  3. mershaw2001

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    If these solar stocks shoot up like crazy, and then drop like crazy, why is buy and hold the dominant strategy? It seems like it would be "sell when things seem good, and buy when things seem in-the-dumps". I feel like "buy and hold" is a good strategy when the stock moves up only a penny a...
  4. mershaw2001

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Not a lot of action on tesla today. Most of the action was on the solar dive and the biotech dive. Almost across the board my solar and my biotechs were down 5%. What an epic coordination. I can't believe we're still seeing fallout from the "fed taper", that was soooo mid-2013. They would...
  5. mershaw2001

    What other tech stock to consider?

    Yeah it does. I've been holding every single share (was at a loss, still am at the current price). However, short interest hasn't fallen dramatically. The stock went from 2.82 to 1.11 and is now at 2.05, and short interest only moved from 24Mil to 18Mil. The accelerated review of Lymphoseek...
  6. mershaw2001

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    Based on what limit knowledge I have, it sounds like with the closing of the SOL poly factory there was a fundamental change in SOL. While the other ones haven't changed in the past few weeks, the tremendous upside from owning a poly factory for SOL is gone. Am I wrong?
  7. mershaw2001

    Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

    Speculation at appropriately timed large sales when the volume thins out, and the selling quickly catches stop losses. I don't have a ton of experience but it doesn't look like regular selling because it appears to attempt to drop the price as far as possible with as little sale as possible...
  8. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I think there's been some interesting action, it seems that the bot that we see attempting to drive the price down has hit support in the 124.7 range, and no longer down in the 121 range. I'm glad to be seeing a move up, and i think we may see another attempt in the next few min to go down...
  9. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    You guys are watching TSLA act rationally on a day when there is very little trading and it's a half day with many people taking the day off. I want to add a note of caution that part of the reason that the stock is down to the 120 level, which is ridiculously low in my (our) opinions, is that...
  10. mershaw2001

    Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

    Thank you everyone on the forum. I'm glad to have you all to bounce ideas off of and share the emotions of Tesla over the year.
  11. mershaw2001

    Tracking short interest

    Why would you have to pay for this? I thought they pay you. And if the current lend rate is 1.25% annually, that's less than .2% per month which barely makes up the 25 dollars on 100 shares. You must have a ton of shares, but even still why pay 25 dollars?
  12. mershaw2001

    Tracking short interest

    Shares available to short from fidelity went from 473,000 yesterday to 435,590, with a cost of 1.25% 11/26/13 435,590 (1.25%) 11/25/13 473,000 (1.25%)
  13. mershaw2001

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    SolarCity Next Bond Offering May Reach $200 Million: CFO - Bloomberg Wow 200 million bond offering next year for solar city, and they expect to keep on doing this for the foreseeable future. Sucks that the stock dived so hard today, they seem to be rocking right now!
  14. mershaw2001

    Tracking short interest

    While the cost to short tesla isn't high at all, 1.5%, the number of shares available to short has dropped drastically if I recall correctly. I am checking Fidelity right now, and it is down from millions of available shares to 470,000. Anyone have any better data on this?
  15. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I see that bot going all the time at exactly the time that i don't want it to be going. I see volume start to trail off and I'm thinking "now's when it could drop" and then bang! Someone throws a shiiiitload of shares on to drop it 50 cents. And I cry.
  16. mershaw2001

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Sadly, a month ago I was starting to think that we had confirmation bias and that some alternative views would be appreciated. Since then, I've seen a lot of people posting negative things about tesla as the stock slides and some of those things have been misleading, and I've decided I...
  17. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I don't think people sell their winners at the end of the year if they will be taxed with short term cap gains. They only sell losers at the end of the year.
  18. mershaw2001

    Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

    Yeah, I've been a little put off by tesla recently because of the pain of losing so much so quickly. I sold 90% of my tesla a little higher than we are right now, after losing a lot of money in the fall from 135 to here. On the good side, the volume was strong and things seem to be stabilized...
  19. mershaw2001

    What other tech stock to consider?

    I think that's a false story by a site like the onion, for one, the settlement isn't over to my knowledge, and for two that was reported in july and then sites like this: No, Samsung Did Not Pay The Apple Patent Penalty In 5c Coins | Gizmodo Australia said that it's not true.
  20. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    of course a squeeze can happen while there is a restriction, however, i think the one day delay in that response killed the stock's momentum completely. Even with this reply, which is excellent, too many people sold today (23 million) to put upward momentum on the stock.
  21. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    Well at first glance it looks like nothing new.
  22. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    sadly to protect any earnings I had left, I've sold out of all but a few hundred shares of tesla. Well, that was a good run guys, but without the old elon at the helm saving us each tesla tuesday, the same strategy of buying the dips isn't going to net me money. Time to move to a different...
  23. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    Well it looks like the selling bots have been temporarily turned off and are no longer looking for stop losses. I like the volume today, that's quite reassuring. I don't see any catalysts in the near term future that could change this other than the NHTSA coming out, investigating tsla and...
  24. mershaw2001

    Tesla not planning a Model S recall: CNBC

    This was filed in 2011, so it could be the current standard that they are using now.
  25. mershaw2001

    Tracking short interest

    Wow if you haven't seen short analytics, you should take a look: Interactive Charts The % sold short today and yesterday went from 40 to 55%. My understanding is that these numbers are taken from a limited number of brokers, just for the additional caveat that it's not the market as a whole...
  26. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I've lost a tremendous amount (as has everyone else here) because of this and other stocks tanking at the same time and having to sell out to meet margin calls. Whenever that happens, I become more risk averse. However, I consistently remember that about 2 days after I become risk averse is...
  27. mershaw2001

    Newbie Options Trading

    Time value goes to a miniscule amount (depending on the amount that the market is unsure of whether the buyout would be complete). The option value goes to Buyout price per share-strike value. Buy out for 200 dollars. Strike price of 140, option would be valued at just under 60 dollars...
  28. mershaw2001

    Newbie Options Trading

    Oh one last thing: with regard to selling the put, remember that someone can exercise at their whim, whereas with the call and the stock you are in control.
  29. mershaw2001

    Newbie Options Trading

    You understand correctly, but I think there's a few subtle things: 1) your margin requirements for the put will be huge (like owning the stock) but the margin requirements of the call will be 0, it will just suck out the cash that it cost. 2) you will get very little time-premium for a 200...
  30. mershaw2001

    "The End Of The Suburbs" effect on Tesla demand?

    I know it's anecdotal, but I've spent my entire adult life without a car, living in the city and biking around, and I'm so excited about the Gen III that I'd put 5k down to buy one as my first car.
  31. mershaw2001

    Tesla not planning a Model S recall: CNBC

    The math, as originally presented for the 5x safer statistic, was based on miles driven, if I recall correctly. The math you present above (that I assume is a quote from him in the interview) is different from the math that was originally used to derive the 5x safer statistic. The inherent...
  32. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    "the stock is a good value now, before it was a little high for my taste"
  33. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    Yeah, I learned that most likely from you, six months ago.
  34. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    I think that the negativity that you are seeing is the people who remain long dislike the approach of "i got out and I won't get in until $X per share is reached" with X being significantly lower than the current price. My take has always been that if you are standing there saying "i'll get in...
  35. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    Intrinsic value is how far your option is in the money, and extrinsic value is how far your option is out of the money. When the price is 139, and the option is for a 140 strike, it's 100% extrinsic value. The premium on an option is a vague term. Price is determined by volatility, distance...
  36. mershaw2001

    Theory on a perfect storm....

    I think the thing that most people wishing for a fall miss is that there would have to be drastic news out of tesla that would change the perception of the company for it to fall to 80. For instance, if a meteor hit the factory, and the stock fell to 80, would these people be so keen to invest...
  37. mershaw2001

    What other tech stock to consider?

    yeah, actually about 4 purchased. Two this morning, then two later on. My understanding is that there is a limited window in which they can purchase, and I guess they all did. I'm encouraged by that, but since I purchased another 1000 shares at 1.55 I think i'm good at this price and won't be...
  38. mershaw2001

    What other tech stock to consider?

    NAVB is just absolutely dying. The funny thing is that their statement about expansion doesn't match their reported earnings, in other words, the money they got in is less than the adoption rate that they are claiming. That could be a good thing, in that the payments are delayed. However...
  39. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    You and i might be more comfortable with the battery, but 3 fires in 1 month is going to be something serious we should consider. 1) will the NHTSA decide to do a formal investigation, which could ultimately be good but in the short term be bad? 2) will buyers shrug this fire off as just...
  40. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    http://www.millertabak.com/mma/globa...=5AEF&Z=no&T=p the document says that it closed close to session lows, i find that to be inaccurate as it was 151 at the close with the low being 146-147.
  41. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    DaveT was not always DaveT, there was a time when he was just a wee little davet and even he was just learning. I think you meant that you want to only pay attention to his estimates, but allow other people to post their educated guesses as well.
  42. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    can you give a link to that upgrade?
  43. mershaw2001

    Q3 Venting Thread

    My vent: my tesla position was 33% shares, 33% puts with 180 strike, and 33% calls with 190 strike. I'd try to weather the storm, but my other two largest positions also took a 21% and 12% hit today (failed drug test and issuance of stock), so altogether it's a perfect storm and i'll have to...
  44. mershaw2001

    Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

    You're acting like tomorrow is a foregone conclusion. Tesla has the ability to surprise us, so don't give up all hope yet, especially when there's nothing you can do overnight. Just hope that we see a rebound off of 158 hard and then upward movement.
  45. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    Should we start a new thread for the opening price at the bell tomorrow? My take is that there will be funds that have been sidelined looking to enter, whereas there were not funds looking to exit after the call. If a fund was bearish or looking to take profit, it would not wait until after...
  46. mershaw2001

    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

    In three days, it's touched 153 twice and bounced hard both times, to me that's a strong double bottom. If it hits in the 157 range in the next day again I'm going to double down (i don't think we'll see 153 range again, but 157/158 is possible. )
  47. mershaw2001

    Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

    Don't be done with this thread. I am glad to hear arguments from shorts, even though they are specious, and have someone like you point out how they are wrong. I don't work on cars enough to know that you could buy skid plates etc.
  48. mershaw2001

    Alternative Energy Investor Discussions

    I am very positive on SPWR after skimming the earnings. I sold in the money puts out a few months- i think it will recover what it has lost, i think it will be trading around 34 until the next earnings. (dec 33 puts for 4.85 if anyone cares)
  49. mershaw2001

    Questions For Q3 Conference Call

    If there are two sources of batteries in the future: Are the batteries sourced from one supplier dedicated to one car, and the batteries sourced from another supplier dedicated to a different car? Or will there be mixing between the suppliers? Maybe someone could help me with the...
  50. mershaw2001

    Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

    Touche, man, touche. I did shoot myself in the foot with that opening sentence.