Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[shn]

perhaps irrelevant.

but Paul walker, has just passed away in a car accident...red Porsche lost control and bursted into flames...

very tragic but definitely builds a more solid case for the public that life of a person > life of a car.....
so there you have it...lets see how the media plays this one out

 

[aznt1217]

perhaps irrelevant.

but Paul walker, has just passed away in a car accident...red Porsche lost control and bursted into flames...

very tragic but definitely builds a more solid case for the public that life of a person > life of a car.....
so there you have it...lets see how the media plays this one out

Seriously... crazy.

 

[Causalien]

Please stay classy people.

 

[ZenMan]

Looks like the bot is turned back on today. Same 1 hour into trading we have seen before. Wonder where they are getting the shares to short?

 

[uselesslogin]

Well SpaceX has resolved the anomalies and are now going to try to launch tomorrow. No other posts today and I'm not sure what else to talk about...

 

[Causalien]

Looks like the bot is turned back on today. Same 1 hour into trading we have seen before. Wonder where they are getting the shares to short?

Yeah that bot.
I sometimes wish I have the clout to start a hedge fund whose sole purpose is to profit off of bots like that. They are easy to detect and are allowed to run rampant because no ome dares to go against them.

 

[Gtoffo]

What proof is there of the existence of this "bot"?

 

[mershaw2001]

Speculation at appropriately timed large sales when the volume thins out, and the selling quickly catches stop losses. I don't have a ton of experience but it doesn't look like regular selling because it appears to attempt to drop the price as far as possible with as little sale as possible. But again- speculation on my part.

 

[sleepyhead]

I don't know if this "bot" exists or not, but using stop losses is the dumbest thing you can do when investing.

If you buy a stock and it goes down, you should be buying more and not selling at a loss. If you liked the company at $X then you should love it at a fraction of $X.

I hardly ever use stop losses; virtually never.

 

[ggr]

Speculation at appropriately timed large sales when the volume thins out, and the selling quickly catches stop losses. I don't have a ton of experience but it doesn't look like regular selling because it appears to attempt to drop the price as far as possible with as little sale as possible. But again- speculation on my part.

If this bot exists (and I agree it looks that way) it's clearly market manipulation and hence illegal. Luvb2b, you have contacts, right?

 

[c041v]

This is starting to feel like the good ol' days of June again.

 

[luvb2b]

If this bot exists (and I agree it looks that way) it's clearly market manipulation and hence illegal. Luvb2b, you have contacts, right?

in the past those were all options related inquiries which went to the options exchanges, opra, etc. imagine at that time it was millions of shares of tesla options being predictably traded and exercised by apparently two or more colluding parties who had no interest other than moving shares from point a to point b.

to the best of my knowledge, no regulatory actions were ever taken.

if they missed that, good luck getting them to look into this "bot". that's my 2c.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

Looks like shares available to short are drying up this morning, is that putting any upward pressure on the lending rate?

 

[sleepyhead]

Looks like shares available to short are drying up this morning, is that putting any upward pressure on the lending rate?

I know that you are hoping for the lending rate to go up so that you can lend out your shares, but it will not go up. If shares available to short are drying up today that is because TSLA is going up and short sellers are getting margin calls, longs are calling back their shares to take profits, etc.

The lending rate will not go up unless there is really bad negative news that could threaten the company into bankruptcy or other failure. The only way that you are going to get the lending rate to go up is if all of a sudden everybody and their mother wants to short TSLA because it is a slam dunk case. This will not happen again unless the stock starts tanking extremely hard (for some good reason).

As a long TSLA holder, I don't think you want that to happen. If TSLA continues a slow and steady climb then you will not see lending rates to go up above the current 1% or whatever it is. You are not going to see double digit lending rates anytime soon. Like I said it is a double edged sword, you will not get good lending rates with a rising share price. Unless of course there is a VW-like short-squeeze, in which case you would be 10x better off selling the shares at a profit than lending them out for a high interest rate that will only last a day or two.

That 85% lending rate in the beginning of the year was an anomaly and it will not happen again without good reason.

If you want to lend your shares, then you are going to have to live with a few hundred basis points at best. Not worth it IMO: all you are doing is increasing TSLA supply and putting downward pressure on the stock.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

I know that you are hoping for the lending rate to go up so that you can lend out your shares, but it will not go up. If shares available to short are drying up today that is because TSLA is going up and short sellers are getting margin calls, longs are calling back their shares to take profits, etc.

The lending rate will not go up unless there is really bad negative news that could threaten the company into bankruptcy or other failure. The only way that you are going to get the lending rate to go up is if all of a sudden everybody and their mother wants to short TSLA because it is a slam dunk case. This will not happen again unless the stock starts tanking extremely hard (for some good reason).

As a long TSLA holder, I don't think you want that to happen. If TSLA continues a slow and steady climb then you will not see lending rates to go up above the current 1% or whatever it is. You are not going to see double digit lending rates anytime soon. Like I said it is a double edged sword, you will not get good lending rates with a rising share price. Unless of course there is a VW-like short-squeeze, in which case you would be 10x better off selling the shares at a profit than lending them out for a high interest rate that will only last a day or two.

That 85% lending rate in the beginning of the year was an anomaly and it will not happen again without good reason.

If you want to lend your shares, then you are going to have to live with a few hundred basis points at best. Not worth it IMO: all you are doing is increasing TSLA supply and putting downward pressure on the stock.

If you think my position has a material effect on the stock you are mistaken. I don't think we'll reach 85% again, but 5% would be nice.

 

[sleepyhead]

If you think my position has a material effect on the stock you are mistaken. I don't think we'll reach 85% again, but 5% would be nice.

It is one of those things that if everybody thought that way then...

Do you vote? (don't answer that) Why do you vote if one vote doesn't change anything? Same thing goes for the stock market, it is a herd mentality. If no one were to lend out any TSLA shares, or if everyone recalled their shares tomorrow then the stock would go up a few hundred percent in a day. One person doesn't make a difference, but if others follow your idea here then it will make a huge difference and cause TSLA's share price to go down (or not up as much) and everyone who lent out the shares will pay the price.

Every share counts.

If there is a smaller amount of shares to short today, that is because brokerages do not want you to short TSLA now that it is potentially breaking out. It is not because all of a sudden everyone wants to short and used up all of the shares available. In this case lending rate will go down if anything and not up.

 

[austinEV]

Haha giving rides at thanksgiving I made all of the men giggle like school girls. The only one I let drive it was my father-in-law.

My wife's grandfather (84) knew nothing about the car not the make or anything but that it was electric. I mashed the pedal and his eyes lit up and he said "that's an electric motor for you, full torque from the start, no winding up." Then he proceeded to tell everyone in the car how far ahead of his time Nikola Tesla was. I told him the company that makes this car was named after him and designed from his ideas and he was amazed. He then said he wanted to get one.

I gave my policeman uncle a ride over thanksgiving(he drove). He made it go very fast... I told him I thought his force should use model S as a money saving measure, and he said if they had a sedan-with-a-trunk or an SUV he would totally pitch the idea.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't know if this "bot" exists or not, but using stop losses is the dumbest thing you can do when investing.

If you buy a stock and it goes down, you should be buying more and not selling at a loss. If you liked the company at $X then you should love it at a fraction of $X.

I hardly ever use stop losses; virtually never.

I agree. However, I like stop losses a lot if I am ready to sell something at market. Instead of doing that, I set a stop loss at some small 0.5% limit below market. That way if it wants to prove me wrong and zoom to the moon it can do that as well. Later I can raise it again if I still want to sell. I have had some very nice surprises when I realized a few days later I didn't trigger.

 

[uselesslogin]

So if I get to 100 posts does that make me a member? I have to say with the price at $142 the pullback is a good thing for me. I had sold covered calls and was able to buy them back when we were down in the 120s. Now we watch all over again I suppose. So far I have been able to make a little extra money from volatility since I only buy long-term calls and sell medium-term covered calls. I will probably sell covered call again at some point because I sort of want to cut my position in half but only if I am selling at record highs.

 

[Gtoffo]

Mario just got a reply from Elon on Twitter....... I would print that and hang it on my wall :biggrin: congrats on the new car! And first in Estonia! (I must come visit you in Tallinn....a truly wonderful city!)

 

[Causalien]

in the past those were all options related inquiries which went to the options exchanges, opra, etc. imagine at that time it was millions of shares of tesla options being predictably traded and exercised by apparently two or more colluding parties who had no interest other than moving shares from point a to point b.

to the best of my knowledge, no regulatory actions were ever taken.

if they missed that, good luck getting them to look into this "bot". that's my 2c.

I remember at the beginning of the bots taking over, there was a case where one of the hedge funds sued two guys who took advantage of the bots. The two guys ended up getting jailed.

So basically, if I saw the bots predicability and trade against it to make it lose money, i will end up in jail. That's why the bots are unstoppable.