MartinAustin
Active Member
I'm one of that group. Failed to get out yesterday! But... about to buy some more today.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I'm one of that group. Failed to get out yesterday! But... about to buy some more today.
With short positions restricted until Thursday/Friday, what do you think we can expect in terms for price movements from now until the restriction period is over and beyond?
To me, it sounds like we might be able to see the stock climb from today's low and some green tomorrow but once the restriction is lifted, we'll see another cascade that causes the stock to plummet into next week.
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I can't exactly say that you failed to get out or anything along those lines. I think many of us short term investors/traders were really expecting TSLA to pop (even by a little to the upside, not the pop we're getting now) after yesterday's close when earnings was announced.
When I had bought back in when TSLA hit the mid-150s last week, my plan was to stay through the earnings report regardless out outcome. But now, I'm looking for an exit strategy where I at the very least break even or come out with some sort of profit with the plan to get back in during the next dip. One thing I didn't count on was seeing TSLA dip all the way down to 146.
If you got in later means you have to wait longer (end of 2014), otherwise you are not "long term". A lot of the people here who bought at 20's had waited for a LONG time. Patience, discipline makes for a long term investor. Tesla builds complex physical products, not virtual one. Historically bets on great management and a sound business model have mostly paid off. You have to be on top of your investments however. Good luck, and don't think you are alone. We are all with you.
hockeythug
Active Member
Would the Chinnese goverment offer incentives to buyers of EV cars or do they not do that kind of stuff over there?
Norse
Active Member
They already have it, but they do not have it for shipped cars yet, perhaps that will change when Tesla arrives. But that shouldnt be a problem. Tesla will sell like hot cakes, and perhaps its only better that the price is higher. I wish Elon tweeted this, then the mainstream media would be over this. This is really sending a signal that EV will be a big market and that Tesla will not meet demand by decades.
I guess Tesla will have no problem "getting in" to China now.
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Funny how the experts on CBNC are hammering TSLA and talking about the chinese does not want EVs
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Technically speaking the stock is in a very bad position right now. If we close above $153 that would be very good but highly in-probable. If we get another round of sellers come in then we could easily see $143 before the week is over and after that the next support is at $133. I think we might see another attack into $143-$145 range before quickly rebounding back into the $150s this week. Then next week we can start a slow climb back into the $160s and $170s but there is a lot of resistance ahead.
I see that the $140s would be the lowest that TSLA should see. If it goes into $130s, that's just wishing that TSLA did bad overall and sinking it below where it was 3 months ago after a good quarter earnings. I'd agree with you that TSLA should bounce up to around $160s. $170s is very tough to see in the coming weeks though, unless there's news about increased battery cells from other makers to rocket this stock back up (e.g., from Samsung and LG). I think that's the only way that this stock will surge because we all know that Tesla Motors is constrained by battery cells.
The thoughts that linger a day later with TSLA continue to focus on the apparent discrepancy between the energy and determination exuded by Elon in prior months regarding improving areas that were lagging -- surely you all remember how he got personally involved in fixing "stupid stuff" at the factory as well as in the service centers as they were rolling them out in Feb-Mar-Apr-May. Eventually they put Jerome into that role, and since the company seems to have fixed a lot of those issues.
But what I didn't hear yesterday and frankly have not heard in months is an equally energetic, determined demeanor from Elon regarding fixing the production constraints, his favorite phrase now. What I am not hearing is that he is pouring all his energy in the next few weeks into once and for all getting the factory and its supply chain into a new level of productivity. As I said yesterday, his use of the phrase is becoming an excuse and what seems to be lacking is execution. Who's in charge of production? Who's responsible? Is the right person in place? I wish an analyst had probed this issue yesterday. Production constraints slipping into 2014 is a bad thing.
But what I didn't hear yesterday and frankly have not heard in months is an equally energetic, determined demeanor from Elon regarding fixing the production constraints, his favorite phrase now. What I am not hearing is that he is pouring all his energy in the next few weeks into once and for all getting the factory and its supply chain into a new level of productivity. As I said yesterday, his use of the phrase is becoming an excuse and what seems to be lacking is execution. Who's in charge of production? Who's responsible? Is the right person in place? I wish an analyst had probed this issue yesterday. Production constraints slipping into 2014 is a bad thing.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Major Q3 Earnings Call Mistakes (IMO):
#1. How many cars were PRODUCED in Q3? 6xxx. It's larger than 5500 "delivered."
The actual number of cars produced would've helped support the stock price. There are many investors that don't know about EU boat transit times or loaner cars. Tesla explained lease accounting and Street accepts that. Produced vs. Delivered is a similar explanation. Elon DID talk about the inventory carrying cost of cars in transit and that these cars have owners/buyers (unlike regular auto makers). He should've said how many were "produced" in q3 The only explanation I see for failure to disclose cars "produced" is that it wasn't higher than 6000. Regardless, I think we have a right to know
#2. Provide 2014 guidance.
TM mgmt had to know the stock would tank if they didn't provide it. My guess it was purely Elon's decision NOT to provide 2014 guidance. I firmly believe many in mgmt are really upset with failure to provide 2014 guidance. As a long-term investor, I'm not happy with this lapse. The stock was clearly already under pressure in Oct. Raising 2014 isn't hard to do. Make it 41k etc. everyone will interpret it to be a conservative number. Under promise, over deliver
comments welcomed!
Full disclosure: I'm long TSLA and haven't ever sold any of my shares.
#1. How many cars were PRODUCED in Q3? 6xxx. It's larger than 5500 "delivered."
The actual number of cars produced would've helped support the stock price. There are many investors that don't know about EU boat transit times or loaner cars. Tesla explained lease accounting and Street accepts that. Produced vs. Delivered is a similar explanation. Elon DID talk about the inventory carrying cost of cars in transit and that these cars have owners/buyers (unlike regular auto makers). He should've said how many were "produced" in q3 The only explanation I see for failure to disclose cars "produced" is that it wasn't higher than 6000. Regardless, I think we have a right to know
#2. Provide 2014 guidance.
TM mgmt had to know the stock would tank if they didn't provide it. My guess it was purely Elon's decision NOT to provide 2014 guidance. I firmly believe many in mgmt are really upset with failure to provide 2014 guidance. As a long-term investor, I'm not happy with this lapse. The stock was clearly already under pressure in Oct. Raising 2014 isn't hard to do. Make it 41k etc. everyone will interpret it to be a conservative number. Under promise, over deliver
comments welcomed!
Full disclosure: I'm long TSLA and haven't ever sold any of my shares.
They already have it, but they do not have it for shipped cars yet, perhaps that will change when Tesla arrives. But that shouldnt be a problem. Tesla will sell like hot cakes, and perhaps its only better that the price is higher. I wish Elon tweeted this, then the mainstream media would be over this. This is really sending a signal that EV will be a big market and that Tesla will not meet demand by decades.
I guess Tesla will have no problem "getting in" to China now.
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Funny how the experts on CBNC are hammering TSLA and talking about the chinese does not want EVs
Has anything been resolved as far as the trademark issues in China? I was really hoping to hear more on this in the call.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
CURRENT Battery Constraint? News to me!
One thing I heard Elon say on CC is that they are CURRENTLY battery supply constrained. He said they could've made more cars in Q3 if they have more batteries supplied in Q3. I was shocked by this. He said he explained this before but I never got that impression. I interpreted the battery constraint to be a future problem not a Q3 problem. I thought there were other production constraints such as productivity and retooling in the factory but battery supply wasn't the bottleneck.
For long-term investors who have been long Tesla for a several years this move is just a bump. And even a buying opportunity. It's great to see that many here are taking that standpoint.
Those who got hurt today, mostly got themselves to blame. They jumped on the band wagon when the stock was overinflated and didn't have much more room to move up. That's gambling. And they ignored the signs (like Elon on valuation). And for those who have only been buying or selling short-term calls and puts, or going in and out of the stock constantly: that's not investing but speculating. I don't think Tesla has any need for such stock holders (they aren't even holding on to anything).
The stock is crashing because expectations were too high, after blow-outs in Q2 and Q3 many were expecting a blow-out in Q3. The speculation based on VIN's on TMC has aggrevated this. This forum is being closey watched by analists, we should know by now. So all those investors (and speculators) who were saying Tesla would annouce 6,000 and even up to 7,000 sales were digging their own hole.
Those who got hurt today, mostly got themselves to blame. They jumped on the band wagon when the stock was overinflated and didn't have much more room to move up. That's gambling. And they ignored the signs (like Elon on valuation). And for those who have only been buying or selling short-term calls and puts, or going in and out of the stock constantly: that's not investing but speculating. I don't think Tesla has any need for such stock holders (they aren't even holding on to anything).
The stock is crashing because expectations were too high, after blow-outs in Q2 and Q3 many were expecting a blow-out in Q3. The speculation based on VIN's on TMC has aggrevated this. This forum is being closey watched by analists, we should know by now. So all those investors (and speculators) who were saying Tesla would annouce 6,000 and even up to 7,000 sales were digging their own hole.
The next next few weeks is not going to solve the problem. The new battery deal with Panasonic, new deals with Samsung/LG, and finding partners and a location to build that Gigafactory will. This is a multi-month effort at the least. The "Tech" portion of TSLA's value has taken a hit today as investors realize Tesla is still more constrained due to the brick and mortar portion of it's existence.
Agreed! Tesla's stock didn't do much of anything for an very long of time and it was quite volatile. It was a matter of patiently waiting for others to understand what Elon had planned and witnessing execution. If you were not already on board, then there was an opportunity lost because it happened so fast.
In the same time period last year it was swinging from the mid 20's to the mid 30's after seeing a high near 40 previously. It was the start of the real US deliveries, just as it is now the beginning of the EU deliveries. They were supplier constrained then too. Tesla made tremendous progress quickly.
Tesla seemed very proud of the 1000 EU deliveries. It is certainly better and smoother than their US launch last year. This time they are dealing with multiple countries which was another big complication that they had to address.
Maybe they didn't give guidance on 2014 yesterday because they don't know at what point their bottlenecks will get resolved. Maybe in a couple months they will have a better idea of what the battery supply will be, and they can give fairly accurate numbers.
Norse
Active Member
+ 1000. We are all partially to blame especially on our predictions on higher sales. Lots of analysts think we are right and have been spewing these inflated numbers. We as a group need to cool it on VIN based projections and excessively optimistic numbers. I for one want just DaveT to produce estimates on these types of figures. His numbers are conservative and well thought out.
Gtoffo
Member
On the supply side, right now, anyone who bought the stock in the last 3 months is losing money and thinking of closing their positions. On the other hand, who's going to buy this stock? Does the drop make it more attractive to those who have followed the company but haven't bought in the last X months? We've had several "pullbacks" in which people on the sidelines have had the opportunity to get in "cheap". What if at this point the stock has run out of steam and there's no-one left to buy? The only hope is that those who had to sell have sold already...but I doubt it, and I'm afraid many will be waiting for the slightest pop to offload their losing positions.
We need analysts RISING their targets. Not reiterating their buys. Tesla is fundamentally in a better position today than it was yesterday. They need to stop being influenced by the market reaction and start treating the ER as the BEAT it is.
I'm sorry to say this.... but my feeling is that the management team dropped the ball on this one. They underestimated the market yesterday and delivered a sloppy ER. We want to see Tesla's management presenting the best image of the company possible. Just like before the summer when Elon was dropping bits of information with surgical precision and with an exact plan on Twitter, all culminating with a perfect ER. Some may say that they don't really care about "short term" fluctuations in price, but that's not true, and a 20% drop is not an insignificant event. All of their wallets were affected by this drop just like us (probably substantially more....). And this also hurts Tesla's long term reputation and image. They look like "amateurs" in the face of the world, who could be wiped out by the slightest misstep. Confidence drops, and people stop buying cars. "I've heard they catch fire..." becomes "I've heard they are tanking on the stock market", and finally "are they a real car company? or just some startup with a crazy idea that has no chance of making it? Why should I buy their cars if they are failing?".
This is a rant from someone who lost money today, but also a rant from a long time investor who owns stock in this company since the 30$s and who plans on holding way after Gen3. I want to see Tesla succeed and the recent trend of miscommunications and PR blunders has been worrying me.
We need analysts RISING their targets. Not reiterating their buys. Tesla is fundamentally in a better position today than it was yesterday. They need to stop being influenced by the market reaction and start treating the ER as the BEAT it is.
I'm sorry to say this.... but my feeling is that the management team dropped the ball on this one. They underestimated the market yesterday and delivered a sloppy ER. We want to see Tesla's management presenting the best image of the company possible. Just like before the summer when Elon was dropping bits of information with surgical precision and with an exact plan on Twitter, all culminating with a perfect ER. Some may say that they don't really care about "short term" fluctuations in price, but that's not true, and a 20% drop is not an insignificant event. All of their wallets were affected by this drop just like us (probably substantially more....). And this also hurts Tesla's long term reputation and image. They look like "amateurs" in the face of the world, who could be wiped out by the slightest misstep. Confidence drops, and people stop buying cars. "I've heard they catch fire..." becomes "I've heard they are tanking on the stock market", and finally "are they a real car company? or just some startup with a crazy idea that has no chance of making it? Why should I buy their cars if they are failing?".
This is a rant from someone who lost money today, but also a rant from a long time investor who owns stock in this company since the 30$s and who plans on holding way after Gen3. I want to see Tesla succeed and the recent trend of miscommunications and PR blunders has been worrying me.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
DaveT was not always DaveT, there was a time when he was just a wee little davet and even he was just learning. I think you meant that you want to only pay attention to his estimates, but allow other people to post their educated guesses as well.
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