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Option_Sniper (@option_snipper) keep in mind there are two KEY long-term levels for $TSLA - 181 and 221.... at 181, bulls start to panic and they buy the dip like crazy.... at 221, bears gonna be panic and short squeeze likely send it up another 50-60 pts fast and furious.... so just remember...

Here's some quotes from the article. Try and guess what the FUD angle is: "domestic demand problems piling up North American demand for the new Model 3 sedan failed Europe...has proven especially bleak. things rapidly began to fizzle in major European markets May's delivery numbers show little...

If orders and deliveries are looking very solid through next Tuesday, I can't imagine Elon won't indicate that and reaffirm guidance for Q2. Tesla will have a strong sense of orders for June by then.

Just came across this post about last year's SH meeting: Mike Smith, 34 minutes ago Annual shareholder meeting is next Tuesday. Last year investors were gloomy just like now, then Musk reaffirmed guidance at the meeting and TSLA rose 25% in about a week. #62208

I sold some J20 calls today to buy nearer term (July) ones. I feel more uncertain short-term about macros than I do about TSLA at this point. Short interest actually increased a bit over the last couple of days. The stock is climbing due to strong volume buying rather than short covering. If...

IMO, it is very likely that macros will need to fall apart for us not to climb at least 25% from the $176 bottom. We may actually climb much more. There can be volatility along the way, but it shouldn't be more than 5 or 6% during the climb.

It's remarkable how quickly gaps fill on the way up. On the way down, not so much.

Nice close to a big green day!

I thought that choice of words very odd. What other CEO uses the word cash burn about his own company? I don't know why, but it struck me as odd and clearly intentional. He certainly knew the email would leak. It's easy to deduce what would follow. Why would he intentionally do this? I really...

Chicago inventory is the lowest since I have been following it 6 weeks ago. There is just 1 pre-raven S listed. No Xs. No 3s.

This drop is now at 31.8% on 19 trading days. There have been 2 worse drops in history, 1 just barely, and the other by about 10%. We had a drop of 32.2% that bottomed in April 2018 at $244. The climb after that was 26.6%. The other one is the massive drop in Feb 2016 of 42% that bottomed at...

I did as well.

On the weekly chart, RSI has dropped below 29. This is lower than it got in 2016. On that dip, it went just below 30 before bouncing hard.

Won't Shanghai go a long way toward solving this? Margins should be much better on the SR+ produced there. Fremont shifts back to LR trims plus model Y. Granted, they have to get through a few quarters to get there, but it's not far in the future at this point. I have a difficult time imagining...

Those are fine for products on the horizon, but definitely not for the next quarter's financials/deliveries. IMO, those should be relatively low risk for failure to hit/high likelihood of success rather than high risk aspirational numbers partly based upon hope, particularly during an ongoing...

I don't believe that's the current cost though. It has been pulled out of the financials. I thought it was somewhere between $35-38k. Could you, or anyone, show me from the actual financial numbers available what the cost of the SR+ appears to be?

Absolutely true. It allows Tesla to be more successful in its mission since it provides more cash for Tesla to grow and create more product lines. The only reason to sell them at a lower price is because they must - either because of battery supply limitations shifting the preferred trim mix or...

This has been discussed but probably buried in the noise here. This is why Tesla will not offer the SR, which is at an even lower selling price, online. The SR+ is barely profitable barebones, while the SR is still a money loser. It's unfortunate that Tesla felt they needed to include Autopilot...

I've noticed something this past week in NE Wisconsin and it has surprised me. We appear to be crossing a tipping point here in NE Wisconsin for demand for Tesla vehicles. Keep in mind this is not California. It is far from it. We don't have a Tesla store since they are banned in Wisconsin. We...

Looks like Jake could use a puff of what that one guy was smoking while using AP.;)

Yeah, that's what I'd like to know too, preferably ahead of time.

You know that if the 3 of us are thinking about adding TSLA but hesitant due to the price action, this is undoubtedly what many TSLA longs/buyers are feeling right now. There are lots of buyers just waiting right now. Shorts are continuing to pressure the stock without much covering even after...

Yes, I definitely remember your experience and your warning, and here we are. I understand the market concerns, and Q1 was such a huge shock for many after Q3/4 2018. It was terrible. However, I'm still surprised at the lack of a bounce since the small one we had with the capital raise. It will...

On that dip in Feb 2016, the drop to over 50% from the ATH happened the day the dip bottomed, so there were no days where the stock stayed at that level. On this dip, we are now also on day 5 at over 50% from ATH. That says something about how this dip is different. Market is accepting the stock...

I noticed that Troy increased his Q2 total deliveries estimate to 76k from 74k, but he is still much lower than 90k. I know he has missed on some of his estimates, but he has been pretty close in general. I sure hope he is way off this time. The market won't be impressed with deliveries under...

How would that be different than when he is on (other than the apology call)?

There have been strong buyers when TSLA has dropped to $185/186.

Even though it may not seem like much, it was good to see TSLA with a little mojo today.

Only 2 points I would make would be to back down a little on deliveries. While they could hit 90k+, I would say 85k is probably more realistic to expect. As to ASP, with all of the SR+ we are seeing, I would guess that will lower the ASP. Why do you think it wouldn't be lower than Q1?

You need to clarify that statement by adding "in the markets they are currently being sold in." Tesla has not opened sales to all markets yet, so that's a misleading statement to make without the clarification. But yes, I don't think it's debatable that Tesla currently can produce more S, X, and...

I very much disagree that the stock is setting up to explode to ATH. Melt up at some point due to some short covering and longs coming back in, yes, but the current situation is not a setup for a massive climb to ATH. IMO, that is going to take some time, plus we have the deteriorating trade war...

Where did you see this?

I think analysts were frankly shocked at how terrible Q1 was, and I think some of them were quite angry at Tesla about it. I think they also viewed autonomy day as a diversion from earnings and a massage for a capital raise. There were comments about Tesla not being transparent about the $200M...

Same here. I'm starting to see some numbers here in NE Wisconsin.

The longest it has ever taken historically for the stock to hit bottom after dropping over 25% is 8 days. That was on the big dip in early 2016. We are at day 3 here. Let's see if we set a new record on that with this dip or not. That 2016 dip is the only previous dip that really compares to...

Worried about what? Either way, the fire is out at this point.

Good details to the comp. Thanks. The media is predictably distorting it in a massive way to make Elon look crazy greedy, as if he actually got paid $2.3B in 2018. "Tesla CEO Elon Musk is bringing home the bacon. So much bacon that his peers will have to settle for the scraps. According to the...

Guys - please consider the ignore function. I don't know who you are responding to, but unless you truly think they are providing some valuable info here, please assist with limiting garbage posts. We need less noise here.

Please load up as that will ensure we don't drop (as much).:D

Isn't that the truth! Please no more announcements/reveals until we at least get a bounce.:D

If it's to announce the Shanghai GF structure completion then it's steak, right? It's just not something new for the market to digest. I think people are crazy to speculate that it's something mysterious and, by implication, market moving. I just don't see that at all.

Isn't it likely the completion of the Shanghai factory structure? That seems like the most obvious to me. I don't understand all the rumors circulating about some mysterious reveal possibly happening in China. That just doesn't make sense to me, and I would not have any expectations of something...

It's not at all balanced, as expected. Main premise is Ark is delusional since there is no way Tesla can build 1.7M vehicles by 2023 because they will not have the production capacity for it. He allows for 1M between Fremont and Shanghai, which seems reasonable. He then basically dismisses GF1...

Just took a look at all TSLA dips over 20% since 2014 to see how many trading days it has historically taken once a dip has gotten over 20% to hit the bottom. We are already over the average on this one. There have been 17 such dips, including the current one. The average number of trading days...

Keep in mind we are seeing some huge sell orders to drop the stock or limit climbs. That has been very effective so far because of the uncertainty/fear about demand as well as big traders being wary of the chart at this point. No doubt it is bad.I haven't sold any of the calls I've picked up...

Using the local high of $258 on 5/6 and the low of $186 on 5/23, we are down 27.9%. This is a drop of 52.2% from the ATH of $389. This dip has run for 14 trading days. The average dip has taken 9 days. The longest dip took 30 days and the 2nd longest took 27. There have only been 2 worse dips...

Poor conviction in TSLA and he prefers to sell his losers and move the money into his winners.

I don't really know, but it sure does get covered obsessively by the media. I guess I don't think it means what you think it does. There is a high burnout working for Tesla no doubt. Years working for Tesla are probably like dog years - each year feels like 7. That's probably a big factor in the...

This is what I'm seeing in Chicago, which I follow weekly. Inventory levels are very low. There are 0 model 3 there. Obvious implication is that demand is strong. Apparently the growth story might not be so dead yet. The media will soon need to pivot back to margins, fires, AP crashes, and...

I've been following Chicago inventory. This is the first time is is showing 0 model 3 inventory. S inventory is relatively low, and X is only 2. The S/X listed are pre-refresh. Seems like demand must be strong. Can Tesla shift inventory cars up to Canada with robust sales there? Or is that not...