Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bdy0627]

Thanks, but it was a projection for production later in the year - the SR+ was only a few weeks from entering production at that time, so the design was ready and planned future production rates would have accounted for it. I think (can't be absolutely certain, going on memory) that they even stuck to the 7k/week end of year comment later - maybe during the Model Y or 3 SR unveil, but I think during the Q1 earnings call.

However, it may well be the case that SR+ is a higher percentage of demand than they had anticipated (is that what you were referring to?) and that could be the reason that 7k/week is possible earlier. Unfortunately, that may be a bad indicator for ASPs in future. At least margins will be better.

I suppose another possibility is that they are simply prioritising SR+ production over other models for this quarter in order to make the 7k/week number. Hopefully they won't need to slow down production again next quarter for other models if Panasonic's extra capacity is available by then.

At that point in time, Panasonic's ramp issues with the batteries looked quite bad. We have learned more recently that the ramp should progress in June, but it seems that Elon may have assumed at that point in January that it was not clear when Panasonic would increase battery production. I think that was a substantial factor in conservatively guiding for 7k/week out of Fremont by end of 2019. He consistently indicated he gave no thought to demand, meaning there was absolutely no concern about it. Consequently, it seems extremely unlikely he would have guided conservatively because of demand.

 

[CorneliusXX]

From the Vox article on the Long Term Stock Exchange:
America’s newest stock exchange wants to fix one of capitalism’s fundamental challenges

To soothe this tension, the LTSE asks both founders and investors to each give a little.

Founders are typically concerned with these Wall Street hijinks that play casino with their babies. Investors are typically concerned that founders are immovable and recalcitrant and don’t want to take their advice.

“A lot of these companies have set themselves up as dictatorial monarchs for life,” Ries says. “There’s got to be a way to have a more constitutional republic vibe to how companies are governed.”

My understanding is that there have been several changes on the Tesla Board recently (in addition to those mandated by the SEC) which remove some of Elon's yes men and reduce his voting power.

At the time i thought it was strange that Elon was giving up this power and when it was discussed on this board the reasoning was the belief that some of the major institutional shareholders were demanding it.

After reading this article I think it is plausible that Tesla will move to the LTSE. Elon is one who likes to jump into new ideas with both feet and has a genuine hatred for the shorting/short term thinking mindset of being a publicly listed company.

If shortsellers have gotten wind of the move it could also explain why there has been an all out attack on the share price recently. They may now have a hard deadline to sink the price as much as possible before their tricks no longer work.

 

[bdy0627]

I agree Matias. On my drive yesterday it went off. Until now I didn’t realize that it can’t be turned off permanently and when it went off I thought that it was a bug in the 16.2 firmware. It’s a pain to have to remember to turn it off every time I drive.

Mine went off twice while driving yesterday. It was startling. I was centered in the lane on a 2 lane highway with no cars even near me. I drive that route every day. It has never gone off before. This seems to have been triggered by the latest update. Mine updated just 2 days ago. I'm sure there will be an update soon to fix this.

 

[mickificki]

Oh snap!

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) Tweeted:
@ElectrekCo @FredericLambert This is complete nonsense

Elon Musk on Twitter

Knowing how well Fred tends to take criticism, I would expect more, rather than less, clickbaity articles on Tesla in the future from him.

Wouldn't be surprised if Fwed blocks Elon.

 

[Matias]

I didn't do any math. He owns about 100 different stocks, not just TSLA. He had 60k worth of TSLA stock that he had bought. The stock price went down about 30% from his purchase price. I don't know exactly, but I think he bought somewhere around $300. The 30% loss is a rough number. He may have lost a bit more.

Thank you, i misunderstood .

 

[mekberg]

If he didn’t sell when it went up 30% why sell when it goes down 30%

People are more afraid of loss.

Loss aversion - Wikipedia

 

[kbM3]

Isn't Model 3 already competitive with BMW/Audi/Mercedes/etc without the tax incentives?

https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tes...3-vs-bmw-330i-vs-genesis-g70-comparison-test/

Apologies. I was actually referencing the Model 3. I should not have said some EV’s as it actually is the only one for which this statement was true. And you could argue it starts at just over $35k, but I didn’t because that one is off menu.

By 2022, hopefully the $25k starting Tesla is released and then it will only be the very cheapest ICE vehicles which have a lower purchase price (but probably higher true cost to own).

 

[Navin]

I didn't do any math. He owns about 100 different stocks, not just TSLA. He had 60k worth of TSLA stock that he had bought. The stock price went down about 30% from his purchase price. I don't know exactly, but I think he bought somewhere around $300. The 30% loss is a rough number. He may have lost a bit more.

hi - can we get an update on % historical from you?

 

[bdy0627]

minutia - No inventory M3's in NOVA this weekend (per website). So all accounted for heading into weekend ...

I've been following Chicago inventory. This is the first time is is showing 0 model 3 inventory. S inventory is relatively low, and X is only 2. The S/X listed are pre-refresh. Seems like demand must be strong. Can Tesla shift inventory cars up to Canada with robust sales there? Or is that not possible?

 

[jerry33]

I've been following Chicago inventory. This is the first time is is showing 0 model 3 inventory. S inventory is relatively low, and X is only 2. The S/X listed are pre-refresh. Seems like demand must be strong. Can Tesla shift inventory cars up to Canada with robust sales there? Or is that not possible?

That wouldn't be possible because there are legislative differences.

 

[bdy0627]

Way WAY too much inventory !
Only 44 model 3's in inventory in the US.
Its 6 AM on a saturday holiday weekend. One of those days when dealers try to unload inventory and Tesla has no cars.
Doomed I tell ya. DOOMED !


PS: Only 46 inventory X's and 734 model S.
Might be able to get them to throw in a floor mat on an old style S.

EDIT: We are one month away from end of quarter and their is NO INVENTORY !

This is what I'm seeing in Chicago, which I follow weekly. Inventory levels are very low. There are 0 model 3 there. Obvious implication is that demand is strong. Apparently the growth story might not be so dead yet. The media will soon need to pivot back to margins, fires, AP crashes, and production issues.

 

[dww12]

This is what I'm seeing in Chicago, which I follow weekly. Inventory levels are very low. There are 0 model 3 there. Obvious implication is that demand is strong. Apparently the growth story might not be so dead yet. The media will soon need to pivot back to margins, fires, AP crashes, and production issues.

I see 5 in Austin, SA, Houston. All SR+, last week there were 25ish with about 10 dual motor.

 

[bdy0627]

The only thing that is materially worse it's the constant loss of executives. If it wasn't for this I would probably be doubling down. I don't buy the argument that is normal for the Valley when there is so much potential with Tesla (see Ark). I'm a big fan, have an S, bought stock,etc. We on this board can't be blind to the executive churn and just dismiss it so casually as we have done.

I don't really know, but it sure does get covered obsessively by the media. I guess I don't think it means what you think it does. There is a high burnout working for Tesla no doubt. Years working for Tesla are probably like dog years - each year feels like 7. That's probably a big factor in the departures. While it's certainly possible the departures are because these people don't like where Tesla is headed, they have been going on for years. I don't think we are seeing more departures now than 2 years ago.

 

[goinfraftw]

After a day thinking about it, here are my off-the-cuff expanded thoughts on Starlink.

I don't think people understand how important this SpaceX Starlink constellation is yet. Namely, we're living in the future now and even sooner than we think.

The 4B people (mostly developing countries) that aren't on the worldwide internet are going to have cheap access in 2-3 years because of this (or nearly instantaneously when it turns on). That's amazing - we're talking about revenues of increased to $30B-$50B for SpaceX in just a single day/week/month too (to further space exploration and colonizing the Moon and Mars). We're talking about a social media app like Facebook going from 2B users to 6B users, potentially, in a single day/week/month (obviously not accurate, but just explaining the potential situation). Other possibilities:

1. We'll be able to live anywhere, practically, with access to the Internet and all services.
2. Developing countries will suddenly have access to all apps, info, and data that's accessible to people in Silicon Valley in just one day, cheaply.
3. We'll be able to have all your devices, individually, connected to the Internet from practically anywhere.
4. Companies will be able to improve logistics and fleet routes to decrease, significantly, travel time for shipped goods.
5. Tons and tons of data collection across all devices (e.g. clean tech and electricity consumption and weather devices) at high throughput.

Lots of implications when you start really delving into what this constellation means, I think. Thoughts?

 

[EVNow]

Mandeep Patel turned down six figures to be his own CEO. - UT News

Good idea, but this man is going to be out of a job once people can put their own cars on the Tesla network.

No - he is going to be owning many Teslas and putting them on the network himself.

 

[tander]

Cool video of the 60 Starlink satellites captured over the Netherlands. No avoidance maneuvers captured that I could see. ;-)

Elon Musk Says It's 'So Far, So Good' for SpaceX's 1st 60 Starlink Satellites

So what are those 60 going to be doing for now? Are they still talking about using them to supplement autopilot?

 

[bdy0627]

If he didn’t sell when it went up 30% why sell when it goes down 30%

Poor conviction in TSLA and he prefers to sell his losers and move the money into his winners.

 

[Plug Life]

Facebook going from 2B users to 6B users, potentially, in a single day/week/month

Fantastic news!!!

 

[kbM3]

Yes it is simple math but not probability....
The simple truth my friend is you are a gambler ... TSLA long investors want this company to succeed but a series of unfortunate events "real events" not the FUD going on right could put TSLA at $10 for 5 years... i guess you did not have any investments through the dotcom bubble collapse or the financial crisis ... it can take a really long time 5 + years or more for even great companies to recover

I don’t think your example proves your point.

If someone had borrowed a small amount on margin (5% in my example) to buy Amazon or Google (the closest examples I can give to Tesla) they would have outperformed the person who did not, even through the two periods you described.

I would not mind continuing the margin discussion, but this thread is so busy I hesitate to keep up a back and forth. If you would like to continue, please start a new thread and PM me.

 

[tinm]

FYI. We’re still long way from FSD. This is also distracting indicator of how little Tesla tests safety critical software before implementing it to general public

Emergency Lane Departure - False Positives

That's the curse of "feature complete." It's a term used by software engineers to indicate they built what they were told to build, but it's a term often used to imply the team has "reached the finish line" on the project chart, when in fact the key work is still left undone, that being, quality assurance and testing. And when it comes to software where lives are at stake, as in automotive autonomy, that means relentless testing and then more relentless testing. I kinda dread and fear that the company is pushing "feature complete" software out to customers and letting *them* do the testing as if it was a huge outsourced Mechanical Turk job.