Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

If shortsellers have gotten wind of the move it could also explain why there has been an all out attack on the share price recently. They may now have a hard deadline to sink the price as much as possible before their tricks no longer work.

What gives you this idea when we know short selling will still be allowed?

 

[tander]

Like what ?

Well it's just an additional investment tool that is nice to have in certain situations. And occasionally professional short sellers can identify fraudulent companies, although it seems like they do a lot of name calling to companies that aren't fraudulent too, it doesn't seem like Einhorn or Chanos still do their own research. Short Selling: Ethics And The Role Of Short Selling

 

[bdy0627]

hi - can we get an update on % historical from you?

Using the local high of $258 on 5/6 and the low of $186 on 5/23, we are down 27.9%. This is a drop of 52.2% from the ATH of $389. This dip has run for 14 trading days. The average dip has taken 9 days. The longest dip took 30 days and the 2nd longest took 27. There have only been 2 worse dips (I'm using an 8% volatility filter here) since 2014, 32.2% and 42%. After those dips, we climbed 26.6% and 69.5% respectively.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Electrek free as of today.

I wish I could. My paper losses are literally making me ill (constant head ache, can't sleep, stomach hurts). If I had sold everything in December, I could have paid off my house with the profits, and still had more money left over in the account than I do now.

It will come back. If you were psychic or lucky you would have sold before now. It caught me off guard too and I’ve ridden it down from about 290. The only thing I’m upset about is not having sold high, so I could buy back in below 200. I’m definitely not selling now at these prices. If my convictions were stronger I would be selling other investments and buying TSLA, but I feel that I’m already a little over invested in this company.

 

[CorneliusXX]

What gives you this idea when we know short selling will still be allowed?

It's speculation at this point. However, the LTSE is not going to be particularly effective if it allows the same rampant short selling mechanics that are available on current exchanges. My guess is that there will be certain limits or transparency requirements put in place to attempt to negate the worst of the current "short the stock and lie about company performance".

Even relatively simple steps like banning naked shorting, forcing lenders of the shares to charge minimum rates, creating a reputation shore for short investors or requiring real time short positions to be published would make a world of difference. Those are just three ideas off the top of my head, however I'm sure there are many practical ways to allow short selling for those that genuinely believe a stock is overvalued while denying the incentive to lie about a company.

 

[sparcs]

Way WAY too much inventory !
Only 44 model 3's in inventory in the US.
Its 6 AM on a saturday holiday weekend. One of those days when dealers try to unload inventory and Tesla has no cars.
Doomed I tell ya. DOOMED !


PS: Only 46 inventory X's and 734 model S.
Might be able to get them to throw in a floor mat on an old style S.

EDIT: We are one month away from end of quarter and their is NO INVENTORY !

Isn't this going to get worse as we near the end of the quarter when the US tax credit cuts in half? Seems like a mad end of the quarter scramble is inevitable just for tax credit purposes.

For a company that's being painted by the media as having a demand problem, you would think Tesla would be talking about the cut in the tax credit to boost sales for Q2.

 

[Zaxxon]

Isn't this just going to get worse as we get closer to the end of the quarter when the US tax credit cuts in half? Seems like a mad end of the quarter scramble is inevitable just for tax credit purposes.

For a company that's being painted by the media as having a demand problem, you would think Tesla would be talking about the cut in the tax credit to boost sales for Q2.

Fear not. There will be an end of quarter rush, and it will be epic. It is known.

 

[ZeApelido]

The only thing that is materially worse it's the constant loss of executives. If it wasn't for this I would probably be doubling down. I don't buy the argument that is normal for the Valley when there is so much potential with Tesla (see Ark). I'm a big fan, have an S, bought stock,etc. We on this board can't be blind to the executive churn and just dismiss it so casually as we have done.

It's normal.

It's abnormal if someone doesn't even stay a year.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Fuel cells, really?!
I thought you are a number guy. Which part of the fuel cell makes financial sense?

Japan is pushing FCEVs. That's just a fact. I think it's a mistake, but they didn't ask me. As long as they push FCEVs, though, you won't see meaningful BEV penetration in Japan.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

My dad sold all of his TSLA stock this week. He holds about 100 stocks, so it was not a big deal for him, but still about $60k worth of TSLA that he probably lost about 30% on. He was not a high conviction investor, mostly influenced by me in deciding to buy the stock a couple of years ago. He lives in Seattle so he sees lots of Teslas all around. The FUD was ultimately too much for him along with the weakness of the stock. He is totally convinced that Tesla is doomed at this point. Too much debt, Elon's unstable and you can't trust him, and of course, demand looks like a problem already. I decided not to try to persuade him to keep his stock at this point. I feel a little guilty about it actually. He feels better just getting rid of a loser in his portfolio. I think he's right to jettison a stock that he has low conviction in. I'm sure he's got a lot of company selling TSLA on this huge drop. We've even seen a number of old timers here decide to sell and move on. It takes serious conviction to hold TSLA through all of this.

My dad is in his late 70’s and holding strong. TSLA is by far his largest holding. He is very invested in the market and basically maintains his own personal mutual fund of stocks. His faith in TSLA mostly comes from what I tell him about the company, so it’s mostly my fault if he loses money on It. He maintains about $200,000 worth Tesla shares. If it goes up he sells some off and if it goes down he keeps buying in. Last year with this strategy he made over $50,000. I’ll eventually surpass him with my buy and hold strategy when the stock price hits 500 or so, but he’s playing this stock perfectly for now.

 

[Remus]

Fear not. There will be an end of quarter rush, and it will be epic. It is known.

I guess there will be a rush alright, as Tesla guided only partial rewinding of the wave.. Epic or not remains to be seen, the price cliff is not as deep, less than 5% of a SR+ before tax

 

[elasalle]

I guess there will be a rush alright, as Tesla guided only partial rewinding of the wave.. Epic or not remains to be seen, the price cliff is not as deep, less than 5% of a SR+ before tax

The Rush will be limited by inventory .. because unlike 18Q4, vehicles going to China and EU as well.

 

[Boomer19]

That's the curse of "feature complete." It's a term used by software engineers to indicate they built what they were told to build, but it's a term often used to imply the team has "reached the finish line" on the project chart, when in fact the key work is still left undone, that being, quality assurance and testing. And when it comes to software where lives are at stake, as in automotive autonomy, that means relentless testing and then more relentless testing. I kinda dread and fear that the company is pushing "feature complete" software out to customers and letting *them* do the testing as if it was a huge outsourced Mechanical Turk job.

that’s a little much. the alert goes off when it thinks you are departing your lane as a warning and it autocorrects. it’s startling at first. it will get better with each iteration. i don’t see it as a safety issue (at least it has not been in limited couple times i’ve experienced it on vs16.2). rather the opposite.

bottom line is don’t think they’d push while sacrificing safety in any way.
we cannot lose sight of the fact that the driver must remain in “drive mode”, basically, the whole time they’re behind the wheel.

 

[Alphacrux]

Since it is now the weekend, I bring you the first edition of "Tesla Bingo"!

This week's edition is extracted from the reader comments of the Wall Street Urinal (WSU) article:
Investors Helped Build Tesla. They Could Undo It, Too.

 

[Pras]

So I received this random survey request from WSJ. I usually never respond to these but decided to do today. In the end I responded that I will never subscribe to WSJ for the “other” unlisted reason with a comment “bias against Tesla”.

 

[bdy0627]

Just took a look at all TSLA dips over 20% since 2014 to see how many trading days it has historically taken once a dip has gotten over 20% to hit the bottom. We are already over the average on this one. There have been 17 such dips, including the current one. The average number of trading days to the bottom after hitting 20% is 3. The longest was 18 days on the huge 42% dip in early 2016. The 2nd longest was 7. We are at 4 on this one.

 

[Navin]

Remember. Be greedy when others are fearful. While CNBC and the chimps like Adam Jonas give the bears a lap dance and try to shake the confidence of retail investors - there is large demand from institutional investors for the shares. Don’t believe me???

Check this out. Truth paints a different picture

 

[Remus]

Japan is pushing FCEVs. That's just a fact. I think it's a mistake, but they didn't ask me. As long as they push FCEVs, though, you won't see meaningful BEV penetration in Japan.

That fact is irrelevant if it can not translate to numbers of cars sold and I thought you among all people would know it! How many fool cell cars bought by the general public? Given their pathetic number now, to what extend it can rise? Would it ever pass the super early adopter phase to actually threaten EVs?

All The hydrogen stations in California ran out of fuel for a prolonged period of time grounding all the cars. This is in the natural gas rich continental U.S. The big storms in the Pacific bound to disrupt the natural gas import to Japan once in a while, threatening the owners of those cars. Talking about range anxiety! For EVs at least you can toll the car to a nearby charging station.

And that is only one of the many problems. The fuel cell power train has tons of complexity and it'll take a lot of debugging. Recall all the problems faced by early EV adaptors, it would be far worse, including many problems such as excessive fuel leaking, gas line freezing and swelling, fuel cell platinum premature failure, control system bugs. Any one of these can get the owner stranded.

And why the hell would anyone want to endure all these trouble? For EVs you get driving pleasure, low running cost and being green. For fuel cell cars you risk stranded on the road or grounded at home for being green?

 

[Navin]

OT but this is one of the ring leaders of the shorts- Jim Chanos. Sole job is to conjure FUD in everything Elon Musk does. Similar to fairfax. At what point does society say enough to this borderline criminal behavior.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Even if you work there it is almost certain you have no oversight of the positions of every fund, every derivatives desk, every hedge fund they have an equity position in, every OTC bond trade, etc, etc. There would only be a handful of people with that knowledge, if anyone at all.

People in risk management.

And quite honestly at this point pulling the "you don't know for certain" card is quite amusing, given the original post I was responding to stated with such factual certainty that within MS there's some conspiracy between Jonas and the derivatives desk to drive down the SP, having underwritten the convertibles, sold to clients on recommendation and profit on the side.

Is it possible? Sure, same as it's possible Fiat will have Level 5 autonomy by Christmas. Is it probable? Not really.