Search results

Am I the only one surprised solar roof news hasn't sent premarket soaring?

As a Canadian, we get a lot of cultural influence from the US. Money is often a fairly taboo subject here too. I've never understood it. Keeping your salary a secret from your coworkers only benefits the employer. People seem to fear that their coworkers will resent them for making more...

Now I'm curious how many figures you think i'm playing with :P

Based on my experience as a new CPO owner - yes. Very much so. My car is in for some due bill items right now (which i knew about before taking delivery), and they called me yesterday to say they noticed a couple other things (chief among them, a noise from my drive unit) they want to fix...

Hugely important. Tesla (by which I mostly mean Elon) understands this. They understand that if you want to change the world and get everyone to stop using fossil fuels, merely producing an electric car, or some solar panels isn't good enough. The product has to be superior to the fossil...

I actually believe this is a big part of why Tesla chose July 1, 2017 as the targeted start date. What better day to choose than the first day of a quarter? You maximize the amount of time you have to get things up and running smoothly before reporting. If they launched the Model 3 line...

I think you're way too pessimistic on the early part of the ramp. You're showing less than 500/wk until November. I believe the line will start up (by which I mean once the earliest stop-the-line class issues are solved, and I expect that to happen by mid-august at the latest) at approximately...

Let them bicker. If they're bickering, nobody is spewing euphoria and producing a top.

I strongly doubt its baked in. Most of the analysts are still calling for 0-20k Model 3 in very late 2017 and ~100k in 2018. Elon says ~60-100k starting in July 2017, 500k in 2018. Who do you believe? My money is on Elon this time - I suspect he's a little optimistic, but I very much believe...

Ehhhh. I'm pretty solidly convinced that man will be green and renewable when and only when it is economically the best choice and not a moment sooner. Partly - that comes from applying pricing to the unpriced externalities (pollution), but it also comes from advancing the technology. We...

I mean sure, there's an element of that. But most retail investors are small enough fish that I can't believe this would account for much of the effect I'm seeing. That type of action is all about shaving pennies at the fringes - its a problem, but in a volatile stock like TSLA the net effect...

They've successfully kicked the transition down the road for 20 years. Why would they think that some Silicon Valley Startup is a reason to maybe stop kicking and try?

*shrug* at the rate those guys spew speculative statements, at least some of them are bound to turn out correct.

The point is that the statistics show these guys (by which i mean, hedge fund managers and several analysts who cover TSLA) are significantly worse than blind luck. You would literally be better off choosing stocks at random than following their advice.

So far I'm going with Palihapitiya's winning.

They're also why most people unwilling to do their own research should just buy index funds and forget about it.

I wish I understood why invariably whenever I make a buy or sell action, the market immediately moves in the opposite direction to what would be beneficial to me. I mean, I'm usually right in the longer haul, but the first hour or two after I make a buy or sell is always painful.

Almost like that was their mission statement or something....

Believe me I know what an annoyance the lake is when it comes to visiting upstate NY or vice versa. I've spent a good many hours of my life driving around Lake Ontario to get to the other side. I grew up in Oshawa, ON, and visited Rochester, NY (about 100km away as the crow flies, 330km by the...

Amusing: The 4 closest service centers to Syracuse, NY are in Canada, all just a little closer than Westchester. (Side note: seems more like 8 hours RT, not 10, according to google, but I'm unfamiliar with the area) Still better than Montana or anywhere in AB, SK, or MB, though. I don't know...

I'll grant you no upside to being transparent, but the downside to not is SEC violations. Elon can't stand there on an ER call and straight up say that there are no known showstopper issues if that isn't true. It never ceases to amaze me how quick some people are to question Elon's...

Probably because Camry vs Model 3 TCO is a fair comparison that will absolutely be made by buyers and many of them will choose the Camry purely because they can actually get their hands on one. I agree. The fuel savings alone mean that Model 3 doesn't really compete with only 3 series and...

By time division. If you made the design in such a way that the same robots are used to do the job whether its 1500m or 100m of wiring, the 100m run will be faster. You don't mix the designs on the line, you do them sequentially. Run 1000 MY's in a hour, and then run 1000 M3's in 15 hours, or...

You completely missed the point of what I was saying. They don't have to share anything other than the layout of the robots that assemble them in order to be built on the same line. My suspicion is that the Model 3 line is the first iteration of this concept. Elon suggested that Pickup and...

Different platform or no, I expect that the Model 3 production line is designed to be able to produce Model Y's as well. Much like the Model S and X share assembly lines despite not exactly sharing a platform. Tesla's superior robot-software design may even allow them to develop a line which...

Why do you guys think Elon is already onto GFs 3-6 before 1 and 2 are even fully operational? Before Model 3 has even launched. Anyone with any common sense can easily see that when you have a product from a manufacturer who does not advertise, which already has paid preorders on the books for...

You know what I think part of the problem is? I think nobody alive today really remembers what the giant automakers who crank out millions of cars per year looked like when they started. They look at Tesla and say you can't possibly multiply your output by 5x in a year's time. When Henry Ford...

He seems to have completely forgotten the possibility of Y's platform being used on a next generation S, which by that point will be way overdue

What a shocker, we landed just inside the implied move bounds based on option pricing. Market Makers win again.

Yeah, yeah, I know. Short term is a fool's game.

12+% in 3 trading days sure feels like a bloodbath. I'm torn. I have some May19th 300 Calls that I can't decide what to do with now. Green yesterday, they're way in the red now. Do I bail anticipating further descent to the 270 area as some suggest? Or hang on anticipating a bounce...

Tesla has to anti-sell the 3, if they want to maintain any semblance of happiness among their customers. The number of reservations on the books for the 3 while unknown, we know is big enough that they've likely got most of 2018's planned production already spoken for. Its also reasonable to...

Looks to me like the shorts piled on to drive it below 300 and trigger stoplosses of weak longs to paint that exact picture and attempt to get the momentum to push it further. The reasons that TSLA reached 300 are unchanged, and if anything strengthened by the ER. An EPS miss is... transient...

Which is why I said a month or so ago that I believe it is important for Tesla to sell as many ZEV credits as they can for whatever price that they can get for them as soon as possible. That $210M or so of credits (based on 50c on the dollar) we'll be sitting on by the end of 2Q17 rapidly loses...

If you ask me, this prediction is like Technical Analysis. It works really great until the fundamentals slap you in the face. One ER coming soon its all going to change, and TSLA will start reporting big fat juicy numbers and then it will gap-n-go on a big earnings beat.

Lets look critically at this: 1) Gigafactory cell production first came online Jan 4. 2) It is reasonable to assume that there was some sort of ramp associated with that. 3) Those cells then had to be assembled into powerwalls and powerpacks. 4) It is reasonable to assume that there was some...

In fairness, what I said was that if they sold ZEV credits, there was about $140M of money would could have had. They sold none. That means they have $140M or so of ZEV credits sitting in the bank, accruing at a rate of around $70M in credits per quarter.

Am I the only one seeing that Automotive Gross Profit is up $200M QoQ? The bulk of the loss, at least as far as I can grok it, is because of the stupid accounting of SolarCity. Automotive business seems to be aces.

Its up: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/4407887214x0x940721/8E9FC98F-343C-4D2E-8516-491DEFB9B69B/TSLA_Q1_2017_Update_Letter.pdf

ir.tesla.com gets basically DDOSed every time.

I suspect the reverse is true as well, though, that the majority of the money lost in the stock market comes from the few days a year that your investments really blow chunks. Missing those could be just as valuable as catching the days they kill it.

I don't understand how customer cancellations at Sunrun or Solarcity are material information at all. They are a sale that never actually materialized into a sale. Happens all the time.

You mean like the companies issuing new debt to fund their share buyback and dividend programs?

The difference of course, is that you don't build a scam on a successful company that took over 10 years to build. You build a scam on a flimsy foundation. Hence - if you were making these arguments about Faraday Future today, or Tesla 10 years ago when taking early reservation money for...

This is the other thing that drives me crazy. So many of the analysts don't specify whether their expectation is for TSLA's GAAP or non-GAAP numbers, which just leads to a pile of confusion and nobody really knowing if a beat is a beat.

...Thats not how a beat works... The market expectation is defined by analysts, and for 1Q17 TSLA seems to be around a loss of $0.69 EPS GAAP. If TSLA reports numbers after market close today indicating a narrower loss than that, or a profit, then that is a beat.

Its not the S's simplicity which makes me say its not up to the mega-luxe standards of the high-end German cars (note, I'm not talking about 3 series/C class, or even 5 series. I'm talking about fully decked 7-series and S-class, and Bentleys and the like, which in fully-optioned trim are...

As an owner of a 2014 S? No. The interior of the Model S, while spartan, is not "Fisher Price cheap plastic" in appearance at all like the workhorse truck is. That being said, I agree that Model S/X interior is not up to the mega-luxe standards of high-end German brand models.

The number needed to make it with 1Q17 is something like $400M GAAP (which is north of +$2 EPS - its not going to happen, and if it does, holy sugar look out, because the fireworks show is going to be spectacular). Combined total GAAP of 1Q17 and 2Q17 need only be something like +$150M to make...

Yup. Squeaky Fisher Price plastic. I don't care for it, especially in a vehicle nearly twice the price of a garden variety F-150. To my mind, though, if brought to market as is, it will be one of the strongest plug-in offerings going. So there's that.