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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Well, I thought I had remembered moving my stop loss limit to $290 but it looks like I had it set at $300, so I'm currently all cash again. Now the wait to see how low it goes before I pop back in. As others have mentioned, $270 might be the floor over the next couple of weeks, then I expect that M3 news in June/July to bring things back in the upwards trend again.
 
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There are no shares available for shorting at Fidelity:

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mmd, do you have a short position on Tesla? Shorting more? I have a large long position and plan to add more shares.
Yes, have initiated them since 280. Avg around $290. Still underwater.
No guts to change exposure. Maxed out.

(Edited out part; thought I was replyingto TrendTrader007).

Unrelated:
Saw a very curious piece from Dana Hull. Model 3, the "supposed" ultimate goal of Master plan 1 to provide emission free mobility for masses, is now around the corner. But Elon is anti-selling it, so no one will buy it! We blame GM for doing a halfhearted job and selling in CARB states only, etc. etc. Here comes Tesla with their final goal of MP1. First they cripple the car. Then, they want to anti-sell it with no test rides. Amazing.

Musk Employs Unusual Marketing Plan for Model 3: 'Anti-Selling'
Two months before the electric-car maker plans to begin production of its first vehicle to sell for near-mass-market prices, the chief executive officer told investors he’s concerned expectations are too high. Tesla will be “anti-selling” the Model 3, offering no test drives or advertising for six to nine months, he said after reporting a first-quarter loss.

Those high expectations were built by Elon himself, by showing off a sleek car last year while collecting deposits. I expect a lot of cancellations when the final car comes out.
The confusion caused by naming it 3 is just baloney. Elon still thinks everyone else is a fool (may be rightfully). The two cars are too close, and M3 is half the price. Why won't people want that instead? Many people have been stretching out to buy the Model S. Now there is Model 3 to take its place.
 
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well, never expected this much of a bloodbath...

Happens all the time.

Greedy people get excited close to earnings and pile in, and all the people who are into technicals drive the momentum. Then when earnings occur and the update after only 3 months is "on track not much new to report", impatient/disappointed people sell off.

Most people will lose money trying to trade TSLA. The best chance for large gains is to hold for a very long time and ride out the swings. Unfortunately, human psychology makes this difficult because falling stock price makes most people very scared (same with rising price for short sellers) and they cash out at the wrong time.
 
Happens all the time.

Greedy people get excited close to earnings and pile in, and all the people who are into technicals drive the momentum. Then when earnings occur and the update after only 3 months is "on track not much new to report", impatient/disappointed people sell off.

Most people will lose money trying to trade TSLA. The best chance for large gains is to hold for a very long time and ride out the swings. Unfortunately, human psychology makes this difficult because falling stock price makes most people very scared (same with rising price for short sellers) and they cash out at the wrong time.

This.

I made a gamble with calls - and lost. Now I'm looking to add to my core position today and tomorrow.

Remember - Tesla has reiterated July production of Model 3, a target that was deemed as an "impossible" date by Elon about a year ago. Not one analyst - literally no one - believes that this will happen. If Tesla executes this and guides to 50k+ Model 3s in 2017, then the stock will move appropriately.
 
Yes, have initiated them since 280. Avg around $290. Still underwater.
No guts to change exposure. Maxed out.

'Add more' is vague. Looking at your average of $209, it seems you added very tiny portions at higher prices. Bulk of your buys were around $209, which was 3-4 months back.

Unrelated:
Saw a very curious piece from Dana Hull. Model 3, the "supposed" ultimate goal of Master plan 1 to provide emission free mobility for masses, is now around the corner. But Elon is anti-selling it, so no one will buy it! We blame GM for doing a halfhearted job and selling in CARB states only, etc. etc. Here comes Tesla with their final goal of MP1. First they cripple the car. Then, they want to anti-sell it with no test rides. Amazing.

Musk Employs Unusual Marketing Plan for Model 3: 'Anti-Selling'


The confusion caused by naming it 3 is just baloney. Elon still thinks everyone else is a fool (may be rightfully). The two cars are too close, and M3 is half the price. Why won't people want that instead? Many people have been stretching out to buy the Model S. Now there is Model 3 to take its place.

Tesla has to anti-sell the 3, if they want to maintain any semblance of happiness among their customers. The number of reservations on the books for the 3 while unknown, we know is big enough that they've likely got most of 2018's planned production already spoken for. Its also reasonable to assume that once Model 3's start arriving in neighborhoods, people will see them, drive their friend's and decide they want one. I estimate that for every preorder that was willing to tie up $1000 for upwards of 2 years (373,000) there are between 2 and 20 other people willing to buy one once its actually a released product.

Until such time as the pre-order/order backlog is approaching a point of being cleared, making any effort to expand the orders just leads to more customers waiting huge lengths of time to get a car. If they buy an S, they can have it (relatively speaking) now.
 
I wouldn't call this a bloodbath, the stock is about where it was a month ago. If oil weren't plummeting 3% the fall would likely be much less.
12+% in 3 trading days sure feels like a bloodbath.

I'm torn.

I have some May19th 300 Calls that I can't decide what to do with now. Green yesterday, they're way in the red now. Do I bail anticipating further descent to the 270 area as some suggest? Or hang on anticipating a bounce (particularly knowing Solar Roof ordering is set to open any time now).

Also, June 265 Calls. More or less the same deal. I feel like these should be rolled soon.
 
The confusion caused by naming it 3 is just baloney.

I actually agree with you on this, but that doesn't negate the reality that some people expected the Model 3 to be the "next generation" Tesla beyond the S/X, which it is not.

The two cars are too close, and M3 is half the price. Why won't people want that instead?

Because the two cars are not that close. Obviously the interiors are completely different, as is the size, and the top of the line performance and luxury will stay with the S. Your argument is as ridiculous as asking why people would buy a 7 series when there is a 3 series. No one asks that question.
 
In a strongly uptrending stock like TSLA it's entirely normal to have big moves down periodically to shake out weak longs
This is no different
I'm probably down well over $600k today alone but selling here makes zero sense to me personally
Just my personal opinion and I may be totally wrong
In which case I'm willing to pay the price By losing millions. Yet more tuition to the markets
 
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