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With things as they are, it would be crazy to put out some aggressive goal, then (force majeure) then they miss it by 5-10% and get crucified. If Wall Street is happy with guidance of 1.8M, why not give them what they want to hear and then (God willing) beat it? We know Tesla has higher goals...

I'm happy that the guy predicting hot CPI after being right 7 times in a row... was wrong. My sold calls may not be as happy, though.

Yay, macros! (not)

Wait, what’s this weird color showing?

Is there really market excitement over a Q3 2023 rumor? If there was going to be excitement about anything I would have thought the Semi. But could also be the recovery effect from holding the price down on Friday? Anyway, I rolled my 12/2 195 CCs to 12/9 202.50 for a modest credit. Likely...

I think a lot of TSLA investors must be feeling this way, because the slightest jitter and BAM it's knocked down another few bucks. (Then gets held down while macros recover.) Really getting old.

It does that for me at a small bridge on a small road. About a year ago the bridge was under construction and only one lane got through, so they put temporary stop signs on each side and cars had to alternate going through. That’s all completed now but FSD beta “remembers” the temporary stop...

FSD beta is completely different software compared to non-beta, so it’s not really worth comparing the two and certainly not possible to draw conclusions about the beta while only trying the non-beta. Also, the traffic light behavior you describe is working as intended -- with the non-beta...

Gutsy. What’s the plan if we hang out in the 180-190s for longer? I would be afraid there wouldn’t be week by week level rolls available, only increasing strike or paying to roll even/down or rolling out farther in time and waiting to catch up.

So hard not to be excited by the news that Elon was selling — that is, it’s not just that investors hate him or TSLA but there was some other reason for the punishment the last few days. And a nice bump up in early trading even against the macros. (Edit: haha that didn’t last) But then I...

I feel for you — margin calls suck. But I would also prefer to keep TA in TA threads and day-trading stock out of the options thread. No offense to any TA fans but personally I don’t really believe it has good predictive power, so to me it’s reducing the value of this options thread. No...

I mean, Shanghai should be producing 80k+ in addition to which there's what, a 15-20k tailwind of undelivered cars from last month? There was a holiday week but they said they were going to be working through the holiday week. I saw someone say here that they weren't at full capacity over the...

LOL, I see what you did there...

So this morning the NASDAQ is slammed, Shanghai wholesale numbers are underwhelming, we're going into MMD hour, and TSLA is green. It's like the Twilight Zone over here.

Well that sucked. New take on the golden oldie: Q: how do you know when Powell is crashing the market? A: …his lips are moving. Very happy that my buy to close order triggered on open put spreads at 2:29. Spared me a lot of indigestion!

Theres that rumor that China is letting go of zero Covid… between that and the Fed winding down increases there’s the possibility of a double shot of good news. I mean, a possibility. Could still come to nothing.

https://www.macrumors.com/2022/10/31/iphone-production-slump-foxconn-plant-lockdown/ Sounds like a positive test at this actual factory, they’re estimating 30% lower production which I guess is with testing like crazy after the positive result and then shifting to closed loop?

I thought the IRA was passed under budget reconciliation rules, as that’s the only way to do it with 50 votes. Can the new congress not just pass a new budget that changes or eliminates the money for the IRA? The same way the IRA replaced the prior EV subsidies? Is budget reconciliation...

So what happens if the Fed raises rates by 0.75 and says they’re looking at 0.5 next time then 0.25 then wait and see? I think the market could go bananas if the end of rates hikes comes into view. Certainly not a given — some more bad earnings forecasts could stick us back in the dumpster —...

Holy crap it should not have been this hard to gain 1% today.

Feels weird to see the NASDAQ hammered and TSLA doing OK this morning. I know, I know, the day is still young…

Well the lag in restoring features is unfortunate. I’m also a little concerned with losing parking assist in bad weather. If it shuts down for rain or snow like FSDb/NoA, that will be frustrating. But the rear camera view can certainly get mangled in the rain, so it’s hard to see how they...

I think Apple, Amazon, and Meta results will drive the macros for the remainder of the week, which I’m guessing will be a big influence on TSLA. Problem is, I have no idea what those results will be. Could be sour and we dump again (Netflix will be permanently infamous in my mind for that)...

Yeah, on that pic I’d be happy if it recognized the white sign (and ok if it ignored the green one). And I’d be happy if initially the (common; top 90-95%) signs were recognized and displayed on the visualization… even if it takes a bit longer to incorporate that data into the path planner...

My guess is greater supply of LFP batteries and therefore relatively more standard range 3/Y production vs LR/S/X. I think if they had the nickel cells available, we wouldn’t see longer wait times for LR models in China because they’d prioritize the higher trims.

I do wish FSD would read all road signs. Mostly lane selection signs (which around here are often visible before markings on the road, especially with traffic), school zone signs, and distinguishing between “35 mph” and “35 mph ahead“. Also perhaps low-speed curve ahead signs. But really...

I think these answers are going to depend on how you use it. I use FSDb and really enjoy it. The driving I do around here is often following individual one-lane-in-each-direction roads for several miles at a time and between other cars. I don't especially enjoy that part of the driving, just...

Good call, but on the topic of our overly optimistic earnings estimates here and the missed analyst revenue estimate… I’m starting to think we should just forget about the past price increases affecting the average sales price. I feel like we’ve had two or three quarters of predictions that...

When comparing margins to the great Q1 result, note that regulatory credits were $400M higher in Q1... (if they had been the same this quarter then operating margin would have been 19%) Not to mention the $250M of foreign exchange.

Its possible the Berlin Q3 estimate of 15k is low. I don’t have hard numbers but I feel like they hit 1000/wk early in Q3 and 2000/week just now (either end of Q3 or early Q4). If that wasn’t dramatically back-loaded then the total could be more like 18k? But again, just a possibility. Has...

Didn’t we just get a report of >80k production for Shanghai in September? (I think Rob Maurer reported that) That makes forecasting 225k for all of Q4 seem pretty low — unless you’re trying to accommodate further lockdowns or something.

Well, that's about 35K cars, right? (Rough math: 450,000/13) Maybe 40K if they hit 495K production and it's back-loaded? That's not so incredibly far from Troy's numbers, but it's still a higher discrepancy than I'd expect. By that logic, they have the last week of production from Q3 to...

Just spitballing here, but I bet we're green on the day when Elon states unequivocally that Twitter funding is finalized and no more of his TSLA shares will be sold in order to close that deal.

Another one of those days where I wish the darn economists would just fudge their estimates up so inflation doesn’t come in hot every. single. time. (PPI up 0.4% month over month, vs 0.2% estimate)

Tesla would have to choose to compete in the Corolla or Accord market for an EV-equivalent of a Corolla or Accord to be competition. Right now it seems like Tesla is content at the higher end of the market. I believe China has a history of foreign brands dominating the luxury market -- before...

It is ridiculous that the wave forces them to pull service techs into delivery (thereby making service worse) while periodically and regionally forcing them to offer incentives or play hardball on delivery dates to squeeze stuff in by the end of the quarter. If they really do unroll the wave...

I mean, the increase in inventory is over $1B of potential sales (based on ASP), right? Close to $1B in cost to produce those vehicles? I guess it’s not COGS yet on account of no S but the drag on cost of inventory has to be in there. Is that reflected in these updated EPS estimates?

Check me on these numbers: Last year total production: about 930,000 Q1-Q3 this year total production: about 930,000 (That's assuming about 366,000 for Q3) If accurate, then to achieve 50% growth Tesla needs Q4 to be 50% of Q1-Q3, or about 465,000

PCE up more than expected. Sigh. Still waiting for these declining oil and raw material prices to, you know, make a difference?

You show me the macro rally, and I'll show you... well, whatever you like; it doesn't matter since apparently we're not going to get that far!

It would be cool if Tesla included figures other than S3XY on the P&D report... I'm thinking solar, powerwalls, megapacks, etc. but I guess also insurance subscribers and any other similar sales metrics.

Sunday, I would think. Usually lately it's been on the 2nd, even if that's a weekend.

My point was, all our present national debt originated back in the day... "in 2020 at 2% cost" in that analogy... and is now being paid by taxes collected from people who are earning more thanks to inflation and using the modern dollar supply. The amount and interest rate of that debt doesn't...

Wait, isn't it the opposite? With inflation people earn more and pay more taxes so there are more dollars in the treasury used to pay off the debt that was originated at a time of fewer, more-valuable dollars? So the debt gets easier to service after more inflation?

It was all right there in the "June production was 12 units a day" So yeah, the "competition" is coming with their vast array of factories and years of manufacturing experience...

If I remember right, last time there was a big rally after the announcement and speech, and then a major tank the next day when supposedly the reality of a Fed-induced recession set in. So maybe don't count chickens until tomorrow, though it's hard to imagine anybody who hasn't considered a...

Well, I do speak of the USA, but that's because I was responding to this: Maybe you meant Canada and Mexico have gigantic deficiencies in charging infrastructure? I can only speak to the section of North America I drive in, but it leads me to believe that "North America" was not the right...

Hmm. I travel mostly in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, Michigan, West Virginia, and Virginia. I have a Tesla Wall Charger at home and haven't had trouble with Supercharging on the road. I can point to towns I wish had a Supercharger, and I've had more than my statistical share of problems at...

That's not even close to true for me. Even if I were to make every turn -- which I don't, though I do take over for a number of them -- just taking the mundane bits out where I'm following some line of other drivers for miles through suburban and country roads and stop lights and whatever...

Well... manufacturers moving to EVs which are at this point still generally more expensive (I've heard +$10K comparing like models, not to mention Tesla sells a lot of EVs that are above the average cost)... also manufacturers quitting cheap compacts and sedans with poor profit margins in favor...