Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ammulder]

Well that sucked.

New take on the golden oldie:
Q: how do you know when Powell is crashing the market?
A: …his lips are moving.

Very happy that my buy to close order triggered on open put spreads at 2:29. Spared me a lot of indigestion!

 

[CHGolferJim]

Next time making a wager: STO an ATM CC just before close on the Tuesday prior to FOMC, then BTC the next day after Powell speaks. An 11/4-c$230 gained 65%.

 

[dl003]

Well that sucked.

New take on the golden oldie:
Q: how do you know when Powell is crashing the market?
A: …his lips are moving.

Very happy that my buy to close order triggered on open put spreads at 2:29. Spared me a lot of indigestion!

The market doesn't care what he's gonna say. The chart was screaming bull trap regardless of what he's gonna say. Well not exactly "regardless" but he's predictable and there's only so much he can say. This is how I was able to call out SPY 388 and TSLA 217 yesterday. FOMC never disappoints.

 

[BornToFly]

I sold 230 strike CC three weeks out before the FED meeting today. Obviously that was a good play. I sold shares on the way down as well, but a stop loss bought them back. By the time I sold again I lost $4/share compared to the original sale.

I rolled all the remaining BPSs I had to Jan 2024. Cost me a fortune. If we are at this level in 14 months I'm screwed. I will need to keep a close eye on the Margin Calculator if we keep dropping.

 

[dl003]

Here's when I will, and I think you should, roll back your hedges: as soon as TSLA makes a lower low, hopefully not breaking below 198.5 and you can see double bullish diversion developing on the 1h timeframe, roll back your hedges gradually. If you see it on the 2h timeframe, roll them back aggressively.

Tesla dropping further is a given. What important is whether it will break 198.5. If it does, we're looking at just a dead cat bounce - don't want that. It will go higher regardless, but a dead cat bounce is bad for business.

This is what it looks like. We're not there yet so hang in there and be careful.

 

[vikings123]

Here's when I will, and I think you should, roll back your hedges: as soon as TSLA makes a lower low, hopefully not breaking below 198.5 and you can see double bullish diversion developing on the 1h timeframe, roll back your hedges gradually. If you see it on the 2h timeframe, roll them back aggressively.

Tesla dropping further is a given. What important is whether it will break 198.5. If it does, we're looking at just a dead cat bounce - don't want that. It will go higher regardless, but a dead cat bounce is bad for business.

This is what it looks like. We're not there yet so hang in there and be careful.
View attachment 870394

Lower BB is currently at 205 on the daily chart so that would be my next target, maybe not for this week but next week. I still think there is a really good chance we get there this week.

I think we might need some fundamental news to push us down below the 198.59 low. Unfortunately covid shutdowns seem to be affecting a few companies in China so maybe it's this potential news or FUD related to this COVID situation could be the trigger.

Medium to longer term concern(late Q4 or early Q1), I'm noticing that the used car market is basically getting smashed. I wonder when new car sales will get impacted. I have to assume some people will delay their car purchase. The good news is we have enough margin cushion to help soften any drop off in demand. Or maybe Tesla pulls the FSD demand level like they do for their used cars sales.

 

[juanmedina]

Lower BB is currently at 205 on the daily chart so that would be my next target, maybe not for this week but next week. I still think there is a really good chance we get there this week.

I think we might need some fundamental news to push us down below the 198.59 low. Unfortunately covid shutdowns seem to be affecting a few companies in China so maybe it's this potential news or FUD related to this COVID situation could be the trigger.

Medium to longer term concern(late Q4 or early Q1), I'm noticing that the used car market is basically getting smashed. I wonder when new car sales will get impacted. I have to assume some people will delay their car purchase. The good news is we have enough margin cushion to help soften any drop off in demand. Or maybe Tesla pulls the FSD demand level like they do for their used cars sales.

According to Troy's latest delivery numbers we will not meet the analyst consensus for Q4. I wonder if a forced Covid shutdown could be a good thing; last time we had the shut down Wall Street gave us a pass.

Next year most Tesla's will get the $7500 federal incentive that is way more than the increase on the car payment because of the higher rates.

 

[intelligator]

Yep, looks exactly how it felt today... negative gamma, expect MM will revert to shorting. Likeliness of -c235 at risk is lessened, 217 to 223 seems probable.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Take a look at the last 2 significant bounces we had. At the beginning of each, we had a wave 1/A (green) followed by a 2/B (red). Look at how long each wave 2/B took. They took quite a bit of time before wave 3/C began because we're looking at major wave sequences. There's no way in hell the drop from 233 to 216 was it so buckle up. If we shoot up from here, I'll be very very concerned as that will be just a short squeeze which won't last and will trigger massive selling afterward. If you think I sound bearish now, you don't want to hear my bearish view. Also look at how small this last wave 1/A is compared to the last 2. This is alarming because the length of the entire sequence more or less corresponds to the length of wave 1. We can still have a nice year end runup with an outsized wave 3, triggered by an 'epic' Q4 P&D report but that needs to be proven first. The only way we're breaking out of this range right now is the possibility of wave 1 not completed yet. I find this unlikely as a double diversion (downward red arrows on the RSI and MACD charts) on the hourly timeframe was developed in last Wednesday morning @ 233. That's when I knew 233 was the top of wave 1, even before the quick drop to 225 and subsequently 216. Look at the last 2 wave 1/A. Double diversion at the peak, signaling exhausted momentum. I don't like the fact that we only bounced 35 points before calling it a day and I hope some good fundamental news coming out soon will help us hang around this area till December FOMO kicks in. In the event the Fed does the unthinkable and only raises by 50 bps, I can see us breaking out to 240-250 to truly complete wave 1. That'll be the uber bullish case.

Market hasn't crashed like I expected but we still have 2 CPI reports, 2 job reports and 2 FOMC meetings on tap before the year is over.
View attachment 869676

Just realized we are only 7 weeks away from the Christmas rally. We will finally rally back from 140 to 160. This looks like an interesting development.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Sorry to have missed all the FOMC swing trading, but busy at the time so will just have to live vicariously through others. Amazing predictions by folks here. Hopefully everyone profited immensely. I really didn’t like the trading/vibe before the meeting, so rolled my straddle down and out to 11/25 -c/p225s for a little credit. Perhaps I should have gone lower, 220s or even 215s. I was busy during the meeting, so couldn’t trade (probably a good thing for me, since I would have messed up anyway). One of my stock buys hit at $216.xx, so I’m a few shares “richer.” Don’t know where the bottom is, but I still have quite a bit of cash, and buys set at $5 lower increments, so for this reason, probably we won’t drop as much as others have predicted. Thanks @dl003 for those graphs, definitely looking at the ~$210 level. Good luck to all. FYI, I still can’t predict the SP, so sticking with straddles, and adjusting as needed.

 

[dl003]

If anyone is interested, I created a thread to post my charts and analyses here.

TSLA Technical Analysis & Roadmap

I'd like to start a thread to post technical analyses of TSLA where I have all my charts and rationales in one place. My TA consists of moving averages, patterns, momentum indicators, Elliott Wave, and timing exclusive to Tesla events & news. I look at the chart from a bird-eye view first as...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[corduroy]

Well it finally happened to me. I got assigned on my 11/4 -245p's. My -250P's were not assigned. My own fault for not rolling yesterday.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well it finally happened to me. I got assigned on my 11/4 -245p's. My -250P's were not assigned. My own fault for not rolling yesterday.

If you wanted to roll it, I don't see the problem, just "roll" it today. (Create a ticket that sells the shares and new -Ps at the same time. If it was part of a BPS, you can add the roll of the +Ps at the same time.)

You can look at it as they saved you the option trading fee on buying your -P back.

 

[elasalle]

closed the $200 FOMC insurance Puts for 11/4 for .42 cents ... 100% gains ... wish I had bought more

bought some March calls with proceeds

 

[MikeC]

Assigned 11/18 -300p overnight. Sold the shares and sold a 1/23 -p300/100.

 

[Discoducky]

Thinking of taking advantage of the greenness and selling some calls for next friday.

Looking at $240s, waiting for it to come up to maxpain. At least that is my theory...

 

[OrthoSurg]

Overnight, got assigned 20 DTE 3 -p139 on META I sold 1 month ago. I thought the NASDAQ would bear market rally. I was wrong obviously

 

[vikings123]

Assigned 11/18 -300p overnight. Sold the shares and sold a 1/23 -p300/100.

Is this in a taxable account? Do you know if there are any wash sale implications? I have heard different versions and honestly not sure if this particular trade is treated as a wash sale.

 

[dl003]

I'm detecting large put inflow into TSLA. Only happened 4 times that I can recall: late February 2021, early June this year, August 26th this year, and today. Be careful

 

[UltradoomY]

I'm detecting large put inflow into TSLA. Only happened 4 times that I can recall: late February 2021, early June this year, August 26th this year, and today. Be careful

Partially my fault....
I exited my $210 P's from yesterday this morning at open BTO- $0.40 ---> STC $3.50

Some really nice whiskey coming this weekend... now that sober October is over!

Loaded up some more March $300's at $7 as well - now holding an insane amount of these for my modest account.
Will off load sometime around Christmas but before the EOY.
Looking for $20 each or better.

Nothing in play for this week now or next week. Might grab some cheap Puts for next week if we get a good bounce (buying them, not selling)