Search results

My definition of Optimus doing "useful work" is - work Tesla would pay a human to do. Regardless of the effort to train for this type of work, it is mostly a one-time task. Once trained - any number of bots can do the same task 24/7 for any number of years. Say the task was pick up an object...

I've been thinking about this shift of emphasis. Part of it is general cost cutting and reprioritizing, part of it is expecting fewer EVs to be sold in some regions than earier projections. But I think part may also be the Biden Admin's rejecting of funding for a Megacharger highway. Tesla...

I follow the Stoic Emperor on X, this is his quote for today:- Some posters here seem very highly motivated to mine for every piece of negative information, including negative media speculation, and post it here. Some of the media speculation is stupid to the point of being comical - e.g...

Aside from the raw spend on AI compute, there are 3 relevant questions:- How efficiently is that AI compute being used? What are the potential and current real world income streams from that AI compute? What are the potential future applications? I am unsure of Microsoft or Google AI currently...

Reposting my own post:- After giving Robotaxis some thought, the closest historical parallel is the building of railways. Prior to railways walking was probably the main means of travel for the majority of the population, only a minority owned a horse or could afford to travel via horse and...

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/04/23/tesla-tsla-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript/

After giving it some thought, the closest historical parallel is the building of railways. Prior to railways walking was probably the main means of travel for the majority of the population, only a minority owned a horse or could afford to travel via horse and cart. Railways did 2 things:-...

This quote form Elon on X is interesting:- Inference is the cars and if we assume 3 Million cars and $1,000 per FSD computer , we get $3B which is probably on the high side. So at least $7B on additional AI training compute. I am assuming the amount citied is just hardware.

While we don't have direct confirmation, we also don't have a direct denial. What is different about a new factory like Mexico? No existing lines, so probably anything Mexico builds will be unboxed, if unboxed pans out as expected. When Tesla stated that they are intending to build up to 20...

You only left out one word ..... initially. So it might read like this:-

Sometimes "ignore" is like taking a shower after an 18 day trek through the wilderness - very refreshing and relaxing. And time saving...

Smart phones need towers, networks, sim cards, regulatory approval. etc. Robotaxis need - charging, cleaning, a fleet, insurance, maintenance, regulatory approval. etc I think the complexity level is similar, but Robotaxis require less infrastructure. Due to the fleet size requirements...

IMO the staff cuts were never about 10% across the board. Elon was looking for duplicated or unnecessary functions, and under performing staff, Not what others consider duplicated, unnecessary or under performing - his opinion. So it is possible that the cuts to the charging team were...

Yes, it is so huge that, if anyone has a photo of a prismatic cylinder I would like to see it :)

What we don't know at this stage is if more of that 10% cut was for staff positions with higher salaries:- Management Engineers IT Seems to me that factory production at most factories is largely unaffected, only factory staff for the new compact car in Austin were laid off. So I think it...

Maintenance / expansion on existing popular sites might also make more sense. I am wondering what the 500 members of the charging team did, and where they were located. It may be that Tesla is moving to a more geographically based decentralised model for sales, service and charging. Removing...

All depends on the ROI of allocated capital, and the spending priorities. At present Elon is all in on AI training capex, and Elon is conservative about preserving the existing cash buffer. Existing Supercharging can still be profitable, while expanding Supercharging might currently not be the...

I think that is right, but inductive changing will be for RTs. It hasn't escaped my attention that many of the presenters on Investor Day are no longer at the company. What has changed since Investor Day? Increased focus on autonomy and AI training hardware investments. Macro environment has...

A quick hack for Geofenced Robotaxi operation would be to mark certain turns as closed on the map, ensuring Robotaxis take alternative safer routes. FSD still needs to allow for the case where there is no alternative safer route.

There is a difference between annual production and deliveries and fleet size. The difference is each year X million cars get added to the fleet where X > 2 and X <= 20.

Tesla using Baidu Maps should mean that all Tesla vehicles including Robotaxis improve Baidu Maps as they drive around. When integrated into Tesla navigation using Baidu Maps will be seamless. I expect the gap to Amap Map APP will quickly close.

Seems likely to me that Tesla Robotaxis update Baidu maps, Baidu Robtotaxis benefit from those updates. And Tesla benefits from the existing maps and any updates done by Baidu. Those that are thinking that a Chinese competitor can easily copy or reverse engineer the Tesla FSD solution haven't...

I think all of the AI training software runs in Python and Tesla has developed a Python compiler / interpreter for Dojo.

The Hornsdale battery project started in 2017 at the time it was hand built and Tesla needed to source cells from Samsung. At the time I can remember many claiming that the whole idea of big batteries was an extremely dumb idea and it would never work. We are only now getting to the point...

Sadly it seems to me like there is no possible way that your in-laws can visit .... problem solved. :)

After reflecting on history at the Austin factory there was a time when there were 2 Model Y lines:- Model Y 2170 (Still running) Model Y 4680 (stopped) When those 2 Model Y lines were running the process probably looked like this:- Body Shop - separate Paint - combined Marriage - separate GA...

I think the issue is people using the steering wheel or brakes as there are physical linkage. But the airbnb model with strangers staying in your property is a bigger exposure. You can limit Robotaxi use to family and friends, or 5-star customers. You could attach some sort of steering wheel...

In my case, the car is going to demand that I wash it. :)

They had good answers to most questions. Part of the answer here is apply Gen3 technology to the existing Model 3/Y models, lowering the cost to build those cars. Another part is additional battery and motor options for the existing Model 3/Y, perhaps even different trims or seats. I think...

I can't see the width of Model 3/Y being reduced.. IMO the most logical smaller form is the same width and a slightly shorter and lighter body, Just changing to 48V/800V/etherloop will remove a lot of weight and cost, allowing smaller battery sizes. It might be possible to use the same front...

I would say delayed rather than dead, But a fairly significant delay, probably around 2-3 years perhaps longer, they probably don't have a definite schedule.

The most important part is increased production capacity and lower cost vehicles from existing lines. More vehicle production without major capex, probably because AI training compute is the capex priority. It is not really clear if these new vehicles will have a Model 3/Y body shape, or how...

Do you find it easier to drive a familiar route, or an unfamiliar route? IMO FSD is only ever going to work smoothly with maps. and the maps act in a way similar to human memory. The main purpose is to aid route planning and giving the car more notice of impending possible stop signs...

Even if you are right, it is too late to change the plan now. The fact that the 25K car is delayed for so long doesn't surprise me, for it to be profitable, all of the ducks need to line up, Without the Gen3 unboxed process and batteries at the right price, it is a very hard slog. If they...

I think Anthony is experiencing genuine frustration with his Cybertruck delivery.. It is venting, not trolling.

Well the facts are that they are building the Robotaxi first, and there is a reasonable chance it uses high nickel 4680 cells. The Gen3 drivetrain is supposed to be chemistry agnostic. We may or may not get information on the earnings call, or at the Robotaxi reveal. All of the posters here...

Yes at the right time it would.. Building factories to make new models isn't cheap or instant... It is good to "get the house in order" before embarking on a major expansion, that means all of the existing production capacity fully built out, fully ramped, and profitable. I now think all new...

James has modest expectations for Q1 earnings:- There are a number of macro and one-off factors impacting on Q1 results. But from my point of view anything Tesla was doing wrong in Q1 2024, they were also doing wrong in Q4 2023. Some issues have been exposed, and areas where Tesla needs to...

Does the average person spend 140 mins commuting each day? If they were not driving in mind numbingly boring traffic, they might be able to do something useful, like read a book, play a game, or answer emails. It is likely in a city there there is a mixture of trips at different times for...

What does it take to get working Robotaxis? IMO the answer is mostly compute hardware, and maps may play a minor role in smooth path predictions. If we assume that compute hardware is going to be very expensive, then recent moves make some sense:- Staff layoffs - freeing up funds for compute...

Yes, in my case the battery and powertrain warranty is 8 years, 160,000 kms. People might quibble with the mileage aspect, but the number of years is great. From memory Tesla has been historically very generous with warranty reserves, and I think some allowance for battery pack failures is...

There are 2 main things that decide the cost of a Compact Model 2 or Robotaxi, size (raw materials) and the Gen3 manufacturing process. Size :- Model 2 - 65% of a Model 3? Robotaxi - 55% of a Model 3? Gen3 manufacturing 30% cheaper for both. A Robotaxi might have a more expensive long cycle...

This seem to confirm that the Boring tunnel will extend inside the factory, or close to it;- If we assume this reporter has an accurate source of information, which is hard to judge.

Perhaps that low cost car that will blow people's minds is the Robotaxi?

IMO - 500 Mile range semi 2170s, 300 mile Semi LFP, energy density should be good enough for 300 miles. Even if LFP could only do say 270 miles, then the SR Semi would be 270 miles. 250 miles or 1/2 the range is the absolute bottom range limit.

How do you know they are not cell limited? One reason Semi development has been proceeding at this pace is because they probably are cell limited. IMO Model Y will eventually migrate to 4680s then 2170s more can be used for the Semi. I can also see new prismatic LFP cells being built with the...

It is what it is. Is Elon wrong, or are quarterly earnings reports the wrong metric for this type of enterprise?

As I see things:- Investing = long term horizon = low stress Speculation = short term horizon = high stress Tesla + Elon + Speculation = world of pain Bulls are not claiming that Elon is perfect, merely that he is persistent. He will attempt things that no one will try, and he can seem wrong...

Logically speaking a 2-seater Robotaxi is probably ideal for 95% of trips, but isn't suitable for the other 5%. Retrofitting any required hardware to existing models seems to me like the most efficient way of satisfying that last 5%. I am referring to comments like :- "I will not use a...

What do you think a HW4 Model 3/Y/S/X with high definition radar would be missing? if they are going to add something to the sensor suite for RT high definition radar is the most likely crutch, otherwise it is back to pure vision that all HW3/HW4 cars have. Even if there were special cameras...