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  1. D

    Does your state charge you a penalty for owning a Tesla?

    I would imagine that Nordic countries never tied building and maintaining roads to their gas tax. While there is something clean about gas tax paying for roads, the vast majority of what taxes pay for does not work that way because it can't. So they just pay for roads out of the general budget...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    I am trying to figure out what bigger picture look leads to a "pessimistic" attitude and corrective action? You made some comparisons to stock market and Academy awards viewership. And BTW - the Dow isn't a great catchall for the stock market and hasn't been for a long time. In each of the...
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    Does your state charge you a penalty for owning a Tesla?

    When I looked at weights, it really isn't a big deal. Yes - a comparable EV will generally weigh more than a comparable ICE. Especially one with a 300 mile range. But - EV's also favor efficiency because of range so that leads to generally better aerodynamics and being better about weight. You...
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    Climate Change Denial

    While the Medicaid part of that is true, nobody is touching SS for a while. Yes, republicans have floated some things but nothing serious has been out for a long time. SS is a problem and will need new revenue or cuts. I would imagine that R's would favor cuts rather then new revenues, but it...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Agreed that tiny cars and cars from China will have struggles. Currently so much of a car purchase is wealth signaling. People who can barely drive buy AMGs. Single people drive Explorers. City dwellers buy jeeps. Logic and economics seem to be secondary considerations. Economics strongly...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Yeah - about 15% of the US is in a state that gives a tax credit for EVs. That isn't nothing but not exactly something to make a huge difference. CA would be close to another 15% if it were still active.
  7. D

    Washington Post Article - We are running out of energy

    The chart was showing requests for new energy. 2023 was double the demand average for the previous 6 years. It doesn't mean that much energy was used and it is wasn't a running total. It seems totally kosher to me. So we don't really manufacture that many new things in the US. And the economy...
  8. D

    Will California ban Ships that don't comply?

    A recent NJ to NC transplant recently told me of the expression - Raise a family in a blue state and retire in a red state. It is the logical, if selfish thing to do. 5 million per ship is a quote from a rabidly partisan source. Given the size of the ships, even that might not be as bad as it...
  9. D

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    To be fair, the US is the number one producer of oil and NG. So that is a source of carbon and methane. It isn't like we are all sitting on the couch. The US has a problem with SUVs and distances driven. Very few of us live in public transportation citiies. Our other problem in all the flights...
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    Will California ban Ships that don't comply?

    Lots of new people in NC are from CA also. But the average price of a San Jose home at $1.5M is certainly part of the reason. But moving to a state with no income tax (TN) is not a bad idea for a lot of people. For the most part though, a house in San Jose is $1.5M for a reason. The market is...
  11. D

    Will California ban Ships that don't comply?

    That was a crazy biased article. I mean unhinged with word choice. I never realized MSN was competing with Newsmax.
  12. D

    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    That quote from Kale - "Only in America" - he really needs to get out more. I realize that it is just a speech but that some people will eat that up is really pathetic. Also that statement about homes being without power for the reason stated is false from my understanding. "An astounding...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Curious how a Bolt owner could never plug in? That US News article is pretty worthless and certainly is not proof that "most" owners are not plugging in. Methodology and time period are not given. Just that ICE use is higher than predicted which could be for many reasons. The data is also from...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Are we really sure that "most PHEV owners" never plug in. I don't believe that. My colleague at work plugs in every night - she lives in a townhome but I think it has a garage - Honda Clarity - an unusual one. My parking garage at work has a Volt plugged into it every day. A good friend has a...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Arguably, best case, you rent an old ICEv when you need to tow long distances. The PHEV part isn't helping much at all in a long distance tow. Are you long distance towing more than 2X per year? Is that a common thing? Are you towing an ICE boat? What I see is mostly is towing an ICE boat on...
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    Climate Change Denial

    It isn't really a matter of serious debate. More interconnections lead to greater reliability and better use of renewables. Does that mean it is perfect? Of course not. Read the quotes from Vegas - they are intellectually dishonest. Of course severe weather events don't obey state lines but...
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    Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

    Agree the wording was about carbon savings. It still sounds somewhat overstated. Obviously one more efficient home does not take 29,000 cars off the road with the first year savings. I am thinking they meant that 50,000 new homes(1 years worth?) built to a better standard would be equivalent to...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    When you look at PHEVs and real consumption patterns, you need to differentiate between US and EU as well as fleet vs personal. In the article "we can only guess that people aren't plugging in". Maybe people who buy PHEVs do more miles than average drivers in a day and therefore can't use the...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    US concern over Mexico attracting Chinese electric vehicle factories What has been discussed here about the coming of cheaper EV competition. Who knew there was a Las Vegas NM (above video). I'd like to see a poll here on who has actually needed a tow for running out of juice. I would imagine...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    I like that the article mentioned the Musk factor. They did it last and I would not put it there - but it was not meant to be in order of importance. I have had a Tesla since 2015. I tried not to get another one when mine was totaled but it was just the best value - and I had gotten used to...
  21. D

    Electrify Everything

    Being "100% efficient" is not really a helpful statement. Using that terminology in regards to a heat pump is disingenuous. In the common use of the term, a heat pump is usually 200-300% efficient. 100% efficient is where heat strips are. A heat pump is not worth using at 100% efficiency. Heat...
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    We must face facts - meat is the problem

    That study was for prostate cancer survivors - so not particularly applicable to the masses. I often try to find sexual motivation for being healthy but it rarely works. Things like weight loss raises testosterone levels and obesity is associated with impotence. I think when men are so far down...
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    Where To Spend the Carbon Budget

    The fact that beef is untouchable is really a pathetic statement on the human condition. Lamb also it just doesn't have the quantity effect in the US. I say this from multiple viewpoints - including that beef is generally not very healthy also. Sure, a good steak tastes really good but the vast...
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    TV Show Recommendation: "Electric Cars - Pros and Cons" (PBS)

    For my use case, 330 mile range with 1000 mi/hr charging is perfectly fine. Very few trips for me are over 500 miles. So usually drive close to 4 hours, charge for 10-15 min and then finish the trip and charge at destination. When the charging station is in the right place and full speed, it...
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    Where To Spend the Carbon Budget

    I think some of this is happening. The problem is that the risk is fairly long-term and businesses work in short terms. Look at Ford making an EV. They will lose their shirts for years. The dealers will lose their shirts forever. It is a better short term play to slow roll the transition. It...
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    TV Show Recommendation: "Electric Cars - Pros and Cons" (PBS)

    There is very little chance that government rules on nuclear will change in the next 20 years so the 25 year timeline still applies. Even if government changed in 10, it would take 15 to take advantage of the change and install. And you would also need state and local government changes...
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    Trump will end Biden's EV (tax credit) policies

    The petrostate comments from Europe remind us the the United States is a petrostate. We are at a point where damping domestic consumption through EVs, efficiency, renewables would force significant exportation and/or collapse of prices. We have been seeing this in NG pricing for a decade. Oil...
  28. D

    Help with Model S rear accident damage repair costs

    I had a 2015 that came to $25k to replace the rear quarter (7/2023). The value was about $25k so it was totaled out. It was a t bone style collision so not the same. But it was very far to the rear - the car was driveable - the only issue was the parking sensors. I can't imagine this would...
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    Climate Change Denial

    Great video - I learned a lot. How stupid easy it was to get lead out of obvious things. The sad part is that it is still all over the place - in the US at least but at least we don't burn it often. Amazingly, the US banned lead in gas before the EU. The US was actually pretty good at some...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Agreed - that was a pretty bad piece. Edmund's isn't exactly knowledgeable in this space. The person doing all the talking was from Edmund's - the interviewer was just running through prepared questions. Her first answer for Hertz's decision to sell a lot of their Tesla's - battery...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Maine is a fairly good example of how the US is a bit too big and diverse to make generalizations. Certainly the vast majority of US population does not live in a place with the topography, weather and density that Maine has. Maine is the least dense state East of the Mississippi - and the West...
  32. D

    We must face facts - meat is the problem

    To be fair, when you are confronted with a choice between protein and a processed carb, the better choice is typically protein - if from a lean source. The people obsessed with getting protein are typically not obese. This is a generalization but often true. It is always interesting to see...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    There were a good amount - I don't have stats - of PHEVs that were bought by fleets and not plugged in. Certainly if someone is getting their car from work - they may not even have easy means to plug in. And in some cases, the work pays for gas - so there isn't even that incentive. I can think...
  34. D

    Does your state charge you a penalty for owning a Tesla?

    We pay $140 going to $180 per year for 2024 in NC. We pay 40 cents a gallon. So it is arguably close to 2 cents a mile. That would be 9k miles to make it even which is certainly lower than average. Now - we do pay 7% on electricity. So about 7 cents for 8 kwh or 24 miles. So add another .3...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    I really find it fascinating the rhetoric that is so strongly anti-government. I am going to work tomorrow and drive on roads that government made. I am going to get paid in money that government backs up. Some of my work is going to be paid for by the government. All of it is going to be...
  36. D

    Are these timelines attainable to be Fossil Free

    Electricity rates in CA have a lot more to it than trying to be fossil free. You can certainly list corruption there. But there is also fire risk, high labor costs, difficult terrain and probably a few other things. Getting to 80% renewable is not hard at all. Just build out a ton of wind and...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    People are always going to differ on the role of government. I've varied over my life along with my party affiliation since ostensibly there is a difference in philosophy at least. Tesla would not have survived without government assistance and I believe it is still the number 2 EV manufacturer...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Do you not agree that the vast majority of the US is not built like Manhattan? It is rather unique in the US. You realize that more heavily urban countries already have higher EV adoption rates than the US? Over 50% of the US population lives in suburbs. 20% live in rural areas. There are 27%...
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    Trump will end Biden's EV (tax credit) policies

    The IRA (poorly named law and already used acronym) is a law that is one the books. It is not something that Trump has the ability to change. It would require getting past a senate filibuster to pass if there was an even a will to get that far in Congress. I am not saying it isn't possible, it...
  40. D

    Model S 2018 worth keeping before battery warranty expires?

    The battery coolant heater, 12V battery and MCU are fairly common failure points. I did all 3 with my 2015 70D. I never had any other issues until a collision totalled it out at 8.2 years of age. I too had the same concerns and I rolled the dice (although not for long as it turns out). Your...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    NYC - only 45% of households own a car. The highest rates are in Staten Island and Queens bordering on Nassau county - ie where people have SFH often enough. You can find plenty of garages in SFH in Staten Island. Manhattan - 22% of households own a car. A total of 160,000 personally owned...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    I get that EV sales did not quite grow as much as the year before, but so many headlines about "EV sales slow". Growth of 46% YOY is not "sales slow" but you have to get the clicks. At this growth rate ... 2024 - 11% 2025 - 16.2% 2026 - 23.6% 2027 - 34.5% 2028 - 50% This ignores S curve...
  43. D

    Warranty voided

    Tesla is a young company that has grown very quickly. They don't really have long standing policies like you might think. Trying to find some pattern in how they handle such things (or some history) is an exercise in futility. Most of this stuff is made up on the fly. As long as the outcome for...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    I meant unproven reliability of a new EV - from China via Mexico etc. The M3 is a rock and a great choice. We have one also. The argument I was countering was that when these $25k EVs come from BYD or whomever, then the EV market share will jump over 50%. I don't agree. I confused the argument...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    I know there are other cheap cars but Toyota only sold 230k Corollas in the US last year. Interesting what Kpanda did - bought for children. I imagine that is a common source of sales for cheap cars. I would guess that Kpanda would not buy a cheap EV for himself (herself?). My buddy just leased...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    The 12% was based on a doubling so they aren't different. The post was after 2023 numbers were basically known so it was obviously not an "assumption", we already knew we were the mid 7's. In no way did I make an assumption of 12% for 2023. In your text you say "your assumption" and that is a...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Wait a sec - I literally said "I doubt even the most optimistic person thinks that will happen". It was not an "assumption" - it was a "look how you can get in trouble cherry picking trends" kind of number. Your choice of words will lose any argument where people are actually paying attention.
  48. D

    Hertz cuts back on EV purchases

    I suspect that car insurance purchased by renters is a fixed amount whether EV or not. I also suspect that Hertz is self-insured to a point. I mean they could pay $2 of the $10 per car per day to Allstate for instance. But there is no way that all $10 are going to Allstate. So if Telsa cost $3 a...
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    DC transmission lines

    Yes - more vertical in Maine helps but that hurts overall generation. So you need to build more and you need space. Also - vertical is pretty hard - roofs aren't vertical. The US as a whole is so far away from Maine. Politically, economically etc. Even still 75% of homes are still heated with...
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    Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

    Interesting that "Itsnotaboutthemoney" says it's all about the money. It is really hard to make an aerodynamic brick be an EV for cheaper than an ICE with good range. It is fairly easy to make a sports sedan an EV for cheaper. It is also really hard to make a tiny car cheaper as an EV - but...