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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
- Start date
I really find it fascinating the rhetoric that is so strongly anti-government.
I am going to work tomorrow and drive on roads that government made. I am going to get paid in money that government backs up. Some of my work is going to be paid for by the government. All of it is going to be regulated by the government. I am licensed by the government and because of that people will trust me to do things to them.
I will write prescriptions on computer on an exchange set up by the government for medications that were certified to be safe by the government.
There is no modern society without the protections and infrastructure of government.
Government has existed in some form for a long time. Maybe some trade occurred before that. But modern markets certainly requires government.
The concept of libertarianism is attractive in an infantile way. A kind of whiny - "No one is going to tell me what to do". The appeal is obvious. But you really have to give up an entire reality to make it happen.
Excuse me why I go get a drink of water that comes from government pipes and is tested and certified to be safe by the government. Perfect? no - but a heck of a lot better than the average well water.
I am going to work tomorrow and drive on roads that government made. I am going to get paid in money that government backs up. Some of my work is going to be paid for by the government. All of it is going to be regulated by the government. I am licensed by the government and because of that people will trust me to do things to them.
I will write prescriptions on computer on an exchange set up by the government for medications that were certified to be safe by the government.
There is no modern society without the protections and infrastructure of government.
Government has existed in some form for a long time. Maybe some trade occurred before that. But modern markets certainly requires government.
The concept of libertarianism is attractive in an infantile way. A kind of whiny - "No one is going to tell me what to do". The appeal is obvious. But you really have to give up an entire reality to make it happen.
Excuse me why I go get a drink of water that comes from government pipes and is tested and certified to be safe by the government. Perfect? no - but a heck of a lot better than the average well water.
FastEddieB
Member
We had a PHEV Honda Clarity from 2018 to 2022. It’s still in the family.
We dutifully plugged it in at home every night, getting the first 40 or so miles of driving the next day on fairly cheap electricity. Though we live in the suburbs, most days that 40 miles covered all or most of our daily running around. As such, the 7 gal tank could last a long time, and when the ICE kicked in it turned into a 42 mpg hybrid.
That’s just us. But on a forum I frequented, that was the rule, not the exception. Some folks with relatively short commutes could go many months without buying gas, so long that some were concerned about their gas going stale.
Did you have a source for your assertion? I’d be surprised if it was anywhere close to true - but if it is, I’ll stand corrected.
We have many PHEVs at my work of all different makes and models at my work (e.g. BMW, Chrysler, Jeep, Toyota, Volvo, Chevy, Mitsubishi, etc.) They DO get plugged in and charged at work, esp. since L2 juice is free. I personally know some of the drivers.
Too bad Volt Stats! (RIP) Tracked real world usage of Chevy Volts in the wild... is no longer operational from a data collection POV but you can see what's there still.
I sometimes see PHEVs like Volts charging on public L2.
E90alex
Active Member
I think PHEVs should not have government incentives that make them cheaper than the equivalent gasoline model. Otherwise people will buy the PHEV only because it’s cheaper and not because they intend to plug in.
But PHEV are great for the usage cases where EV may not be ideal.
But PHEV are great for the usage cases where EV may not be ideal.
There should be an incentive for plugging in. Like the onboard software could track how much total charging has been done and dispense incentives for reaching a certain amount of charging.
Since the state incentives tend to be smaller ($500 to a few thousand), maybe states could dedicate $500 and link it to reports from the onboard software that show a minimum amount of charging has been reached.
Since the state incentives tend to be smaller ($500 to a few thousand), maybe states could dedicate $500 and link it to reports from the onboard software that show a minimum amount of charging has been reached.
FastEddieB
Member
From that report:
”According to the study, which uses figures from Fuelly.com and data collected by the California Bureau of Automotive Repair, PHEV owners are driving 25-65% fewer electric miles than vehicles allow and consuming 42-67% more fuel than EPA estimates.”
I’m having some trouble parsing exactly what that means. But pretty sure it doesn’t mean ”no one plugs in a phevs in rhe usa.”
In all honesty, on road trips we’d rarely make a point of charging, and never once paid to charge. We treated the car as if it was a reasonably large hybrid sedan that got 42 mpg, which is not bad at all. But if a friend or family member we were staying with had an extension cord handy, we’d definitely charge overnight. Getting the first 40 or so miles “free” doesn’t make a huge difference, but does save the cost of about a gallon of gas - which is not nothing.
There were a good amount - I don't have stats - of PHEVs that were bought by fleets and not plugged in. Certainly if someone is getting their car from work - they may not even have easy means to plug in. And in some cases, the work pays for gas - so there isn't even that incentive. I can think of pharmacy reps whose company was trying to show that they were being green.
My feeling is that a lot of early PHEVs were this - and that can really drive down numbers. I have seen no recent study.
In parts of Europe, PHEVs have significantly favored status including lower congestion taxes. It is the status of the car, not the mode it is operating in. So again, the primary driving force to buy is not to save on fuel.
At some point, people are going to plug in if it is easy and saves them money. But with incentives thrown around, they can be driven without quite easily. That is going to happen sometimes. And that is a decently large problem but not a reason to completely throw out the entirety of the fleet.
One thing that bugs me in the US for many reasons is that people don't park in their garage typically. So plugging in isn't as easy as it should be. My feeling is they park outside because they have too much junk.
At my parking garage at work, there is a Volt plugged in during work hours on a 120V circuit. Presumably they live 30 miles away since electricity here is 11 cents. I have competed with Volts on L2 at another job. The Volt is still almost in a class by itself among PHEVs. Especially since there really isn't a non-PHEV version.
My feeling is that a lot of early PHEVs were this - and that can really drive down numbers. I have seen no recent study.
In parts of Europe, PHEVs have significantly favored status including lower congestion taxes. It is the status of the car, not the mode it is operating in. So again, the primary driving force to buy is not to save on fuel.
At some point, people are going to plug in if it is easy and saves them money. But with incentives thrown around, they can be driven without quite easily. That is going to happen sometimes. And that is a decently large problem but not a reason to completely throw out the entirety of the fleet.
One thing that bugs me in the US for many reasons is that people don't park in their garage typically. So plugging in isn't as easy as it should be. My feeling is they park outside because they have too much junk.
At my parking garage at work, there is a Volt plugged in during work hours on a 120V circuit. Presumably they live 30 miles away since electricity here is 11 cents. I have competed with Volts on L2 at another job. The Volt is still almost in a class by itself among PHEVs. Especially since there really isn't a non-PHEV version.
FastEddieB
Member
We test drove a Volt and seriously considered one. But looking up YouTube reviews we found some comparing it with the Honda Clarity PHEV, which we had never heard of. We went with the Clarity for its more expansive interior room, and our prior positive experiences with Honda products, and it was trouble-free in the almost 4 years we owned it. When we got our Tesla, we gave the Clarity to Karen’s son and his wife, and it’s still providing them with reliable, relatively cheap transportation.
henderrj
Active Member
Exactly! Let the government govern, complete with fines and even imprisonment for those who refuse to act in a civilized manner, and let business do business. If each keeps their place, things work well.
When the government starts to run the money, things fall apart. You basically get a more civilized look at someone forcing everyone else to do what they want. No machine guns, at first, but also no free market.
The problem is conflating government control of laws with government control of the money. They're not the same thing! Government is a good thing. Government grown to the point of running everything, is a bad thing.
What we consider civilized changes over time. Stoning a woman for adultery was once considered acceptable. Now it's not. Having children work in industrial factories and get their hands chopped off sometimes used to be acceptable. Now it's not. Having a child outside of marriage used to be grounds for exiling a woman from polite society. Now it's not.
I absolutely agree that businesses and markets often do things better. When the profit-making interest of a business is aligned with societal interest, a business usually does it better. When the profit-making interest of a business is not aligned with societal interest, though, that's where businesses often fail. It was in the interest of plantation owners to enslave fellow human beings. That's a case where business interests did not align with societal interests, and those business interests had to be corralled by force. When it was in the profit-making interest of businesses to dupe customers into buying stocks of fake businesses, that's a case where businesses failed. So Congress and the states have passed many laws regulating investment disclosures and how stocks are marketed. When it was in the profit-making interest of businesses to sell cars that spewed unlimited noxious pollutants into the air, used leaded gasoline, didn't have seat belts, didn't have safe designs, didn'thave backup cameras, didn't have anti-theft technology, the auto manufacturers went full speed ahead and built as many bad cars as they could. So Congress and the states got involved and passed laws in the public interest, and now many of those kinds of vehicles are not allowed anymore.
So when we talk about EVs, I think there's a sense that EVs are similar to our historical response to leaded gasoline or cars without seat belts. In the early days, nobody knew any better, so leaded gasoline or cars without seat belts were allowed. But eventually, we as a society realized those things were harmful, so we used the power of government to restrict them and defend the interests of society over corporations. The government did not become a manufacturer of cars. But the government did push industry in a certain direction in order to align the interests of auto manufacturers with the interests of the public. With EVs, I think the process will be gradual, and people will continue to have a choice of ICE, hybrid, PHEV, and EV in the market for a long time.
“It is clear in the real-world data that many PHEV drivers simply never plug in at all. Why would a driver purchase a PHEV if they don’t plan to make use of electric drive? Well, in some cases, PHEVs can be cheaper than their non-plug-in equivalents when factoring in federal and state incentives”
theicct.org
Guys, enough back and forth
Hybrids might have made sense in 2001
Def not in 2024
Don’t plug in your plug-in hybrid? EPA will now hold automakers responsible. - International Council on Clean Transportation
Accounting for the real-world use of PHEV’s would prevent over-crediting of GHG emission savings
theicct.org
Guys, enough back and forth
Hybrids might have made sense in 2001
Def not in 2024
US EPA Reviewing California 2035 Electric Vehicle Sales Mandate Plan (Reuters)
The U.S. environmental regulatory agency will hold a hearing next week on whether to approve California's plan to require all new vehicles sold in the state by 2035 to be electric or plug-in electric hybrids.
US EPA to hold hearing on California 2035 EV sales mandate plan
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will hold a hearing next week on California's plan to require all new vehicles sold in the state by 2035 to be either electric or plug-in electric hybrids, a landmark move that could speed the end of gasoline-powered vehicles. The California Air...
I have a friend who bought a RAV4 Prime while a hospice nurse. BEV wouldn't have worked for them.“It is clear in the real-world data that many PHEV drivers simply never plug in at all. Why would a driver purchase a PHEV if they don’t plan to make use of electric drive? Well, in some cases, PHEVs can be cheaper than their non-plug-in equivalents when factoring in federal and state incentives”
Don’t plug in your plug-in hybrid? EPA will now hold automakers responsible. - International Council on Clean Transportation
Accounting for the real-world use of PHEV’s would prevent over-crediting of GHG emission savings
Guys, enough back and forth
Hybrids might have made sense in 2001
Def not in 2024
Here's the current state of CCS in Maine. It's 191.7 miles from CCS in Bangor to Van Buren. (BTW, the average temperature in Van Buren in January is 7.4F).
I"m not gong to show the Tesla Supercharger map, because requiring people to buy vehicles from a company with notoriously crap customer service that doesn't even have a service center in the state is unreasonable.
And even when Tesla opens up it's not going to help non-Tesla owners with Northern Maine coverage, because there isn't a V3 Supercharger north of Bangor. Jackman, Medway and Baileyville are all V2.
The wrenches are various CCS locations that are due to be built and opened this year. But the previous round were delayed, so who knows. But if those locations open _then_ Downeast Maine and The County will be more accessible to EVs. Although, not too many since most of the new locations will only have 2 chargers.
And Maine is quite proactive about charging and isn't that big a state. Lots and lots of holes to fill in the USA before anybody but EV fanbois would say that hybrids don't make sense.
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Maine is a fairly good example of how the US is a bit too big and diverse to make generalizations. Certainly the vast majority of US population does not live in a place with the topography, weather and density that Maine has. Maine is the least dense state East of the Mississippi - and the West is certainly another world when it comes to size and topography suitable for human habitation.
Bangor is a town we have all mostly heard of - it has 30,000 people in it. Van Buren I had to look up - it has 2,000 people in it. Maine is immensely beautiful but, like Manhattan, is not relatable to the rest of the US.
My county has about the same number of people as Maine. I can't count the number of fast chargers within 100 miles of me - it might be 75 locations and 500 spots. My guess is about 40 tesla supercharger locations and 35 CCS. And this is NC - not with the headstart of CA or the density of NJ.
So when people say a PHEV doesn't make sense at all, they probably live in a density that would easily support charging. Or don't have home health nurses driving over 200 miles a day (because at some point that is 1/2 the day since people don't live on interstates).
Bangor is a town we have all mostly heard of - it has 30,000 people in it. Van Buren I had to look up - it has 2,000 people in it. Maine is immensely beautiful but, like Manhattan, is not relatable to the rest of the US.
My county has about the same number of people as Maine. I can't count the number of fast chargers within 100 miles of me - it might be 75 locations and 500 spots. My guess is about 40 tesla supercharger locations and 35 CCS. And this is NC - not with the headstart of CA or the density of NJ.
So when people say a PHEV doesn't make sense at all, they probably live in a density that would easily support charging. Or don't have home health nurses driving over 200 miles a day (because at some point that is 1/2 the day since people don't live on interstates).
Update on this neighbor as I posted back in that other thread:
"In the morning and I double checked in the evening, it seems like the guzzler Silverado (was white) was replaced with a lifted brand new grey Silverado. It still has CA temp placards on it. It looked like there was a ZR2 badge on it (Site Maintenance). Looks like their starting MSRP is just under $70K. Not sure if it's leased or owned. Also not sure about the previous Silverado.
They still have 5 cars for 2 drivers. The 19 cent per kWh DC FC still exists and is much cheaper than charging their single EV (a '22 Bolt) at home."
Someone at my work (I don't know them personally, they work down in So Cal) was poking around about various vehicles after their car got totaled. They even were considering a Model 3. They mentioned they'd be able to charge for free at our LA offices (don't know if they go in regularly). In the end, they bought a Lexus NX (non-plugin) hybrid.
dude, you have been on TMC since July, 2012 and are kvetching about a dearth of V3 superchargers?
___WAY___ back on February, 16th, 2013, 8 Tesla's, S60's and S85's when there were few and far between superchargers, recreated the John Broder trip from Washington DC to New York City, leaving from the old Rockville, Maryland Tesla Service center off Gude Drive.
But the network was, and still is, growing
This was when an S60 had too small a battery to make the jump from the Delaware, Interstate 95 rest stop located superchargers to the next ones in New York City, so only 4 of the 8 were capable of making the whole trip.
As I recall, this was just before you could do a trip across the US. 11 short years ago Feb 16, 2013. LOTS more superchargers nowadays.
(my 2005 hybrid blue Prius is hiding in the background)
The young couple on the right side went along for fun.
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