Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[winfield100]

The rapid inevitable death abandonment of gasoline vehicles due to gasoline not being available or being extremely expensive is just wishful thinking.

FTFY

what fuel costs are going up? extracted fuels: finding, multiple transports, refining, spills, fires, etc. most fossil fuels will be stranded assets
way too useful to just burn & use once

what fuel costs are going down? manufactured : Renewables plus batteries
the switchover will accelerate, be vicious for some, foreseen by others, some dimly
-----
A Tesla Y MYLR 100+ MPGe why drive a 50MPG when you can get double, triple etc?

PV $1,600w+ 1956, $101w 1974 ~$1w. 2014. ~20cents watt now (free fuel)
batteries similar curve
Wind turbines similar curves

take a glance at some of the sheets in these

Home

The Energy Institute is, as of 2023, the home of the Statistical Review of World Energy, published previously for more than 70 years by bp. The Statistical Review analyses data on world energy markets from the prior year. It has been providing timely, comprehensive and objective data to the...

www.energyinst.org

take a glance at these Sankey diagrams of US energy use now and 10-20 years back, see what's decreasing, increasing, efficiencies, waste,

Flowcharts

flowcharts.llnl.gov

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

FTFY

what fuel costs are going up? extracted fuels: finding, multiple transports, refining, spills, fires, etc. most fossil fuels will be stranded assets
way too useful to just burn & use once

what fuel costs are going down? manufactured : Renewables plus batteries
the switchover will accelerate, be vicious for some, foreseen by others, some dimly
-----
A Tesla Y MYLR 100+ MPGe why drive a 50MPG when you can get double, triple etc?

PV $1,600w+ 1956, $101w 1974 ~$1w. 2014. ~20cents watt now (free fuel)
batteries similar curve
Wind turbines similar curves

take a glance at some of the sheets in these

Home

The Energy Institute is, as of 2023, the home of the Statistical Review of World Energy, published previously for more than 70 years by bp. The Statistical Review analyses data on world energy markets from the prior year. It has been providing timely, comprehensive and objective data to the...

www.energyinst.org

take a glance at these Sankey diagrams of US energy use now and 10-20 years back, see what's decreasing, increasing, efficiencies, waste,

Flowcharts

flowcharts.llnl.gov

It's not inevitable, except on very long timescales.

Unless we can somehow eliminate petroleum, there will be refineries, and they will produce gasoline because there's a fraction of petroleum that can easily be distilled to gasoline. They will sell it cheap, because they just want to get rid of it.

If demand for gasoline and diesel are much reduced due to electrification then it'll be the _cheaper_ petroleum that's used.

And, as I pointed out, the fact that gasoline is energy dense and easily stored means that the system can function easily at lower volume.

You will have to get to an _extremely_ high proportion of the fleet being BEVs and then add a bunch of years until it's time to replace underground storage tanks before owning a gasoline vehicle would be difficult.

 

[cwerdna]

Ford's hybrid vehicle sales surge to offset EV decline in January

Ford started the year with a slight increase in sales, led by a jump for hybrid vehicles, which offset an 11% decline for all-electric cars and trucks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[cwerdna]

More automakers are being forced to rethink their EV plans

As a new era of the transition to EVs is on the horizon, car companies are rolling out new strategies and rethinking their old plans.

www.businessinsider.com

"The first, like GM and Volkswagen, sought to skip hybrids and go straight to an all-electric lineup..." ignores efforts in earlier years. VW has sold some non-plugin hybrids in the US before like the Jetta Hybrid (https://media.vw.com/assets/documents/original/6340-10115993255256a01548b9.pdf) but IIRC, they didn't amount to many sales.

GM besides doing a bunch of PHEVs in the US like Volt, ELR and CT6 PHEV, they had numerous non-plugin hybrid attempts in the US like their various gens of BAS mild hybrids (BAS hybrid - Wikipedia) as well as their two-mode hybrid stuff that on consumer vehicles mostly went on BRoD (Battering Ram of Death) class SUVs (Global Hybrid Cooperation - Wikipedia).

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

More automakers are being forced to rethink their EV plans

As a new era of the transition to EVs is on the horizon, car companies are rolling out new strategies and rethinking their old plans.

www.businessinsider.com

"The first, like GM and Volkswagen, sought to skip hybrids and go straight to an all-electric lineup..." ignores efforts in earlier years. VW has sold some non-plugin hybrids in the US before like the Jetta Hybrid (https://media.vw.com/assets/documents/original/6340-10115993255256a01548b9.pdf) but IIRC, they didn't amount to many sales.

GM besides doing a bunch of PHEVs in the US like Volt, ELR and CT6 PHEV, they had numerous non-plugin hybrid attempts in the US like their various gens of BAS mild hybrids (BAS hybrid - Wikipedia) as well as their two-mode hybrid stuff that on consumer vehicles mostly went on BRoD (Battering Ram of Death) class SUVs (Global Hybrid Cooperation - Wikipedia).

It's worth noting that GM's announcement on PHEVs is, by amazing coincidence, coming at a time when
1) They're struggling to ramp Ultium
2) and, probably more importantly, it's shortly before the new CARB ZEV rules kick in in 2026:

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/regact/2022/accii/acciifro1962.4.pdf

...
PHEV Flexibility. Manufacturers may fulfill a portion of their total Annual
ZEV Requirement with PHEVs produced and delivered for sale in
California as follows:
...
Partial Vehicle Value Equation
Partial Vehicle Value = Certification Range Value / 100 + 0.20
Where:
Partial Vehicle Value = vehicle value per qualifying PHEV in units
of vehicles, rounded to two significant digits and capped at a
maximum of 0.85
...
Additional credit for US06 all-electric range. An additional
0.15 partial vehicle value, if the PHEV has a US06 all-electric
range of at least 10 miles determined in accordance with
the 2026 ZEV and PHEV Test Procedures
...
The maximum total partial vehicle value earned by a PHEV
under the Partial Vehicle Value Equation plus additional
credit, per subsection (e)(1)(B)2., may not exceed 1.00.
...
PHEV Allowance. The annual PHEV allowance that a manufacturer
may apply in a given model year towards its ZEV requirement
performance under subsection (f) shall be calculated by
multiplying 20 percent times the applicable model year Annual
ZEV Requirement calculated in subsection (c)(1)(A).
...

In other words, under the new rules, PHEVs will have much more value than under current rules, although they will be limited to up to 20% of required vehicle sales. So it's now worth GM's time to make PHEVs.

I just hope that whatever they offer is much more Volt than the CT6 PHEV which was a deserved flop.

If Chevrolet had made a Volt Gen 3 we'd probably have one already. But unfortunately right now the US small PEV market sucks.

 

[dakhlkt22]

In other words, under the new rules, PHEVs will have much more value than under current rules, although they will be limited to up to 20% of required vehicle sales. So it's now worth GM's time to make PHEVs.

Can anyone give a quick explanation of the relative value of PHEVs under previous and current rules?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Can anyone give a quick explanation of the relative value of PHEVs under previous and current rules?

Page

Current Zero-Emission Vehicle Regulation | California Air Resources Board

CARB has been the leader in the development of programs designed to reduce emissions from mobile sources. Mobile sources account for well over half of the emissions which contribute to ozone and particulate matter air pollution in California. Zero-Emission vehicles (ZEVs) and near-zero-emission...

ww2.arb.ca.gov

Links to rules

Current rules:
(View Document - California Code of Regulations)
BEV: max 4 ZEV credits
PHEV: max 1.3 TZEV credits.
TZEV credits could be a diminishing fraction of credits.

	Total ZEV	Minimum
Model Years	Percent Requirement	ZEV floor	TZEVs
2018	4.5%	2.0%	2.5%
2019	7.0%	4.0%	3.0%
2020	9.5%	6.0%	3.5%
2021	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%
2022	14.5%	10.0%	4.5%
2023	17.0%	12.0%	5.0%
2024	19.5%	14.0%	5.5%
2025	22.0%	16.0%	6.0%

New rules from 2026:

View Document - California Code of Regulations

govt.westlaw.com

	Model Year	Percentage Requirement

	2026	35%
	2027	43%
	2028	51%
	2029	59%
	2030	68%
	2031	76%
	2032	82%
	2033	88%
	2034	94%
	2035 and subsequent	100%

Based on sales.
BEV with 200+ miles of range counts as a sale.
PHEVs have to meet a list of emissions and range requirements and count as a partial (or whole) sale depending on rated range with a bonus for meeting a 10+ miles AER rating (i.e. can't just be blended operation to get full credit).
But PHEV partial vehicle credit can only count up to 20% of sales.

So, while a smaller fraction of PHEV sales can count, it's a smaller fraction of a much larger number of sales.
In my opinion the new PHEV rules are how things _should_ have been. CARB's current rules tipped the scales so far towards BEVs, that it made PHEVs redundant for any manufacturer with half-decent BEV.

 

[dakhlkt22]

Page

Current Zero-Emission Vehicle Regulation | California Air Resources Board

CARB has been the leader in the development of programs designed to reduce emissions from mobile sources. Mobile sources account for well over half of the emissions which contribute to ozone and particulate matter air pollution in California. Zero-Emission vehicles (ZEVs) and near-zero-emission...

ww2.arb.ca.gov

Links to rules

Current rules:
(View Document - California Code of Regulations)
BEV: max 4 ZEV credits
PHEV: max 1.3 TZEV credits.
TZEV credits could be a diminishing fraction of credits.

	Total ZEV	Minimum
Model Years	Percent Requirement	ZEV floor	TZEVs
2018	4.5%	2.0%	2.5%
2019	7.0%	4.0%	3.0%
2020	9.5%	6.0%	3.5%
2021	12.0%	8.0%	4.0%
2022	14.5%	10.0%	4.5%
2023	17.0%	12.0%	5.0%
2024	19.5%	14.0%	5.5%
2025	22.0%	16.0%	6.0%

New rules from 2026:

View Document - California Code of Regulations

govt.westlaw.com

	Model Year	Percentage Requirement

	2026	35%
	2027	43%
	2028	51%
	2029	59%
	2030	68%
	2031	76%
	2032	82%
	2033	88%
	2034	94%
	2035 and subsequent	100%

Based on sales.
BEV with 200+ miles of range counts as a sale.
PHEVs have to meet a list of emissions and range requirements and count as a partial (or whole) sale depending on rated range with a bonus for meeting a 10+ miles AER rating (i.e. can't just be blended operation to get full credit).
But PHEV partial vehicle credit can only count up to 20% of sales.

So, while a smaller fraction of PHEV sales can count, it's a smaller fraction of a much larger number of sales.
In my opinion the new PHEV rules are how things _should_ have been. CARB's current rules tipped the scales so far towards BEVs, that it made PHEVs redundant for any manufacturer with half-decent BEV.

Bottom line, PHEVs will be lowered from something like up to 27% of new ZEV sales now to only 20% of new ZEV sales in 2026, and by 2035, PHEVs could be up to 20% of all new vehicle sales (which will all be ZEVs at that point).

Is there a good explainer somewhere for the new PHEV definition, or value attributable to PHEVs? It's not entirely clear what some of these calculations refer to.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Bottom line, PHEVs will be lowered from something like up to 27% of new ZEV sales now to only 20% of new ZEV sales in 2026, and by 2035, PHEVs could be up to 20% of all new vehicle sales (which will all be ZEVs at that point).

Is there a good explainer somewhere for the new PHEV definition, or value attributable to PHEVs? It's not entirely clear what some of these calculations refer to.

Well, here the requirements for PHEVs to be able to count. Note that 2026-2028 only allow the partial counts.
The certification range is a combination of urban and higway cycles
US06 is the "high speed" highway test that has a bunch of acceleration and touches 80mph (although average is still only 48mph).

EPA US06 or Supplemental Federal Test Procedures (SFTP) | US EPA

The page contains a graph of the EPA US06 or Supplemental Federal Test Procedure (SFTP) driving cycle.

www.epa.gov

(A) For each 2026 model year and subsequent PHEV that meets all the following criteria, manufacturers may count such vehicles at a value of one towards the Annual ZEV Requirement:
1. SULEV30 Standards. Certified to full useful life SULEV30 or lower exhaust emission standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks in CCR, title 13, section 1961.4.
2. Extended Defects and Performance Warranty. Extend the performance and defects warranty period set forth in CCR, title 13, sections 2037(b)(2) and 2038(b)(2) to 15 years or 150,000 miles, whichever occurs first.
3. Battery Labeling Requirements. Meet requirements set forth in CCR, title 13, section 1962.6.
4. Data Standardization. Meet applicable requirements set forth in CCR, title 13, section 1962.5.
5. Service Information Requirements. Meet requirements set forth in CCR, title 13, section 1969.
6. Battery Warranty. Meet applicable battery warranty requirements set forth in CCR, title 13, section 1962.8.
7. Charging Requirements. Meet requirements set forth in CCR, title 13, section 1962.3.
8. Minimum Certification Range Value. Minimum certification range value of greater than or equal to 70 miles, per the 2026 ZEV and PHEV Test Procedures.
9. Minimum US06 All-Electric Range Value. Minimum US06 all-electric range value greater than or equal to 40 miles, per the 2026 ZEV and PHEV Test Procedures.
(B) For each 2026 through 2028 model year PHEV that meets the criteria identified in section (e)(1)(A)1. through (e)(1)(A)6., with a minimum certification range value of less than 70 miles and greater than or equal to 43 miles, per the 2026 ZEV and PHEV Test Procedures, manufacturers may count such vehicles at a partial vehicle value comprised of the sum of the Partial Vehicle Value equation plus additional credit for US06 all-electric range, calculated as follows:

Note that the partial vehicle is based on the US06 test, which is the toughest cycle.

Test procedures:

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/regact/2022/accii/acciifro_zev_tp_2026%2B.pdf

For PHEVs that end up running the engine during charge discharge they calculate an adjusted range based on calculated emissions in charge discharge.

 

[cwerdna]

Why Mazda says hybrid crossover SUVs are the 'sweet spot' for the US market

Count Mazda among the automakers who were criticized for dragging their feet into EVs, but the company is likely glad it did.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[dakhlkt22]

(B) For each 2026 through 2028 model year PHEV that meets the criteria identified in section (e)(1)(A)1. through (e)(1)(A)6., with a minimum certification range value of less than 70 miles and greater than or equal to 43 miles, per the 2026 ZEV and PHEV Test Procedures, manufacturers may count such vehicles at a partial vehicle value comprised of the sum of the Partial Vehicle Value equation plus additional credit for US06 all-electric range, calculated as follows:

This seems like a higher all electric range than current PHEV configurations, no? I thought current PHEVs have smaller all electric range than that. Not sure how they picked 43 miles. Fyi, I saw a 2022 CARB press release that said 50 miles would be the requirement for PHEVs but maybe that was an old press release.

So really what we're looking at is 43 all electric PHEVs that are no more than 20% of the ZEV new sales.

Meanwhile, other requirements like EPA fuel efficiency may help drive increased hybrid sales with OEM lineup changes like Toyota's conversion of Corolla to hybrid only in 2025.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This seems like a higher all electric range than current PHEV configurations, no? I thought current PHEVs have smaller all electric range than that. Not sure how they picked 43 miles. Fyi, I saw a 2022 CARB press release that said 50 miles would be the requirement for PHEVs but maybe that was an old press release.

So really what we're looking at is 43 all electric PHEVs that are no more than 20% of the ZEV new sales.

Meanwhile, other requirements like EPA fuel efficiency may help drive increased hybrid sales with OEM lineup changes like Toyota's conversion of Corolla to hybrid only in 2025.

The 43 miles may be because they are targeting 50 miles AER in real world conditions and they calculated what it would require for results in the US06 test.

 

[cwerdna]

California EV sales are falling. Is it just temporary, or a threat to state climate goals?

California electric vehicle sales dropped significantly in the last half of 2023, raising questions about the state's ability to phase out gas-powered cars.

www.latimes.com

"“It’s an interesting time for the automakers and consumers,” said Greg Bannon, director of automotive engineering at AAA. “The government and automakers have spent billions on something consumers may not want.”

Sales of all-electric cars and light trucks in California had started off strong in 2023, rising 48% in the first half of the year compared with a year earlier. By that time, California EV sales numbered roughly 190,807 — or slightly more than a quarter of all EV sales in the nation, according to the California New Car Dealers Assn.

But it’s what happened in the second half of last year though that’s generating jitters. Sales in the third quarter fell by 2,840 from the previous period — the first quarterly drop for EVs in California since the Tesla Model S was introduced in 2012. And the fourth quarter was even worse: Sales dropped 10.2%, from 100,151 to 89,933.

“There are real challenges,” said Corey Cantor, EV analyst at Bloomberg BNEF, an energy research firm. “Growth year-on-year for 2023 was really impressive, but watching the first half of this year will be important.”

https://web.archive.org/web/2024021...es-raise-worries-over-california-climate-plan is a copy if you get hit by a paywall.

 

[David_Cary]

I like that the article mentioned the Musk factor. They did it last and I would not put it there - but it was not meant to be in order of importance.

I have had a Tesla since 2015. I tried not to get another one when mine was totaled but it was just the best value - and I had gotten used to certain things that I wasn't sure I wanted to give up. Supercharging the biggest one. If I never had an EV and was on the fence, might have been the nudge to stay with ICE.

The overlap between people with a significant environmental emphasis and growing disdain for Musk is quite large and particularly in CA I would think.

Buying from Hobby Lobby or Chick fil a are pretty small potatoes - and CA has less of these per capita than TX by a lot. A car purchase is a statement. Chick and Hobby have really tried to back track and minimize things. Elon just keeps it up.

My sister has lived in CA since college - calls my car a Musk mobile in a fairly disparaging way.

Many may not like government mandates (CA 35%) but they do fix the pricing issue. CAFE kept small cars really cheap and got consumers used to high dollar SUVs to subsidize the small cars. An EV mandate does the same thing. Tesla doesn't have the ICE to balance but it still gets sales that it might not get because of the mandate. It is way less picking winners and losers than a true government run industry and it functions a bit like a carbon tax. Just like CAFE functioned as a bit of income redistribution/luxury tax. Not the cleanest way to get there but it does work.

 

[cwerdna]

San Mateo becomes only county in California where you need to earn more than $500K annually to afford a median-priced home

$518,400 – that's how much you need to earn annually to afford a median-priced home in San Mateo County. In neighboring Santa Clara County, you need $468,000. Higher borrowing costs and a shortage of available homes for sale have brought California housing affordability to the lowest level in...

www.paloaltoonline.com

"According to the report, which analyzed housing data in the fourth quarter of 2023, only 15% of homebuyers could afford to purchase the statewide median-priced single-family home of $833,170. That’s down from 17% a year ago. To afford the statewide median, buyers need to earn a minimum annual income of $222,800 to make monthly payments of $5,570, including principal, interest and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, assuming a 20% down payment and an interest rate of 7.39%.

In comparison, more than a third of the nation’s households could afford to purchase a $391,700 median-priced home, which required a minimum annual income of $104,800 to make monthly payments of $2,620."

FWIW, I'm in Santa Clara County but don't own the house I live at (long story). The house was cheap (in absolute $) when bought new over 40 years ago but its value has skyrocketed because Bay Area and the nearby schools.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

California EV sales are falling. Is it just temporary, or a threat to state climate goals?

California electric vehicle sales dropped significantly in the last half of 2023, raising questions about the state's ability to phase out gas-powered cars.

www.latimes.com

"“It’s an interesting time for the automakers and consumers,” said Greg Bannon, director of automotive engineering at AAA. “The government and automakers have spent billions on something consumers may not want.”

Sales of all-electric cars and light trucks in California had started off strong in 2023, rising 48% in the first half of the year compared with a year earlier. By that time, California EV sales numbered roughly 190,807 — or slightly more than a quarter of all EV sales in the nation, according to the California New Car Dealers Assn.

But it’s what happened in the second half of last year though that’s generating jitters. Sales in the third quarter fell by 2,840 from the previous period — the first quarterly drop for EVs in California since the Tesla Model S was introduced in 2012. And the fourth quarter was even worse: Sales dropped 10.2%, from 100,151 to 89,933.

“There are real challenges,” said Corey Cantor, EV analyst at Bloomberg BNEF, an energy research firm. “Growth year-on-year for 2023 was really impressive, but watching the first half of this year will be important.”

California EV sales are falling. Is it just temporary, or a threat to state climate goals? is a copy if you get hit by a paywall.

The chart from that article is rather significant. When they say sales fell, they fell quarter to quarter, not year on year:

https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/248da4d/2147483647/strip/true/crop/640x800+0+0/resize/2160x2700!/format/webp/quality/75/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9a%2F98%2F1af77f0d4a13b16aaa59b6ea9a1d%2F5aa1a3deef5c4fb8986fe2c12bdd008e

So it doesn't _yet_ signify a sales peak, just not a huge growth trend. Could be a sign of peaking or could be normalization with the shape of sales being like the regular market.

I'd like to see the sales breakdown because there are some significant factors related to tax credits and incentives, in addition to new and canceled models.

 

[cwerdna]

which is from a New Mexico TV station.

Near the end, they supposedly run into Woz (not sure it was really unplanned). And, right near the end, they mention there are (only) 9,932 registered electric vehicles in the state of NM.

 

[David_Cary]

US concern over Mexico attracting Chinese electric vehicle factories

What has been discussed here about the coming of cheaper EV competition.

Who knew there was a Las Vegas NM (above video). I'd like to see a poll here on who has actually needed a tow for running out of juice. I would imagine the ones they see are not registered in NM.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

US concern over Mexico attracting Chinese electric vehicle factories

What has been discussed here about the coming of cheaper EV competition.

Chinese car manufacturers may be planning to move in to Mexico but they really need the tax credit removed first..

Who knew there was a Las Vegas NM (above video).

Raises hand. Las Vegas, NM has a Supercharger. There's going to be an additional location or expansion with NEVI funding.

I'd like to see a poll here on who has actually needed a tow for running out of juice. I would imagine the ones they see are not registered in NM.

I believe per vehicle more people run out of gas than run out of charge. Also, people who run out of charge normally do so close to home. So they might see NM EV owners. It's the use of EVs and being conscious of range. (The Chicago cold weather event might have affected those stats a bit ) People on the road can have problems if chargers aren't working and need a tow to the next charging location. They wouldn't necessarily run out of charge though.

 

[kpanda17]

Makes more sense to keep using pure ICEv until there is pure Bev support.
Using gas to charge a tiny battery in a dual propulsion vehicle makes no sense.

My point was
Hybrids are a falsehood