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  1. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Congrats longs, TSLA had another strong day on Thursday. We gained nearly 5% during market hours and then tacked on an additional 1.75% after hours. In contrast, Nasdaq was down 0.64% during regular trading. The strength of TSLA after hours was influenced by...
  2. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above (note that Nasdaq has changed TSLA chart colors to match the new QQQ color scheme) QQQ chart above On Wednesday morning the pre-market trading of TSLA was somewhat subdued from the Tuesday after-hours close near 164. TSLA traded near 160. After the briefest of Mandatory...
  3. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Congrats, longs, including after hour trading TSLA is up more than 15% on Tuesday. The 1Q24 ER showed somewhat better numbers than expected. Automotive margins declined from 18.9% to a still respectable 18.5% (excluding cybertruck). Download the ER pdf here...
  4. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As expected, Tesla is buying a sugarload of compute to enable FSD and Optimus. This affects cash flow but is a prudent investment, seeing that the AI race is underway including Tesla and other big players.
  5. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Mr. Market is happy so far...
  6. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Time-constrained post The price cut news impacted the stock on Monday. TSLA closed down 3.40% vs. the Nasdaq's gain of 1.11%. Looking forward to actually hearing Tesla's plans going forward. The Earnings Report will be Tuesday after market close. Elon has...
  7. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Friday's trading was all about a big macro dip, which is a shame because TSLA's loss of 1.92% managed to outperform Nasdaq's loss of 2.05%. Market makers would likely put in some effort to defend the 150 put wall and up until about 1pm it looked like they...
  8. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Here are two factors that may affect this coming week's ER: the recent announcement by Tesla's board that the board has decided to move Tesla incorporation from Delaware to Texas and Elon's previous 2018 awards being voted on again by shareholders. 1) The Tesla board is making sure that it's...
  9. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above TSLA got off to a bad start on Thursday when Deutsche Bank downgraded TSLA with the assumption that Model 2 might be delayed. Nasdaq closed lower due to continued worries about inflation. This has been a tough week of sledding for both Nasdaq and TSLA. In...
  10. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above The big Tesla news came out well before market open when Tesla's Board of Directors announced their decision to not only move incorporation from Delaware to Texas but also to seek shareholder approval of a compensation package for Elon Musk that is a duplicate...
  11. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Tuesday was a second down day from Tesla's layoff news, but it was a much lighter reaction than Monday. TSLA dipped nearly to 154 during the mandatory morning dip shortly after market open but entered a recovery mode for the remainder of the day. Analyzing...
  12. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Constrained time post Monday got off to a tough beginning with not only an announcement of a 10% reduction in personnel but also the loss the Drew Baglino and Rohan Patel. Initially, during the heavy morning trading, TSLA mostly remained above 165 but when the...
  13. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Let's get the Friday trading out of the way quickly so as to move onto bigger topics. The market began with lots of macro red and that situation got worse as the day progressed. TSLA largely followed the course set by QQQ and Nasdaq. With a put wall at 170 and...
  14. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above On Thursday we saw what looked like some real effort to keep TSLA from climbing out of the market makers' sweet spot. Overnight, the threatening put wall shifted from 170 to 165, which allowed the mandatory morning dip to extend below 170 off and on for over...
  15. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In the daily charts forum, @2Pearls wrote: Would like to give an opposing view of Sasha as not every person on the internet is correct, proceed and caution at your own risk. I have listened to Meet Kevin for the last 3 years, and whether you like or dislike him, I do think he keeps it real and...
  16. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Both QQQ and TSLA were green until 8:30am when the CPI numbers came in 0.1% higher than expected. Mr. Market was disappointed and the immediate pre-market dip receded slightly as the day went on and Nasdaq closed down 0.84%. Meanwhile, TSLA also dipped at...
  17. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above So, FSD/robotaxi fever is still alive and well with TSLA investors as TSLA gained 2.25% on Tuesday, compared to Nasdaq's gain of 0.32%. We saw one of the recurring themes this morning when TSLA performed a half-hearted mandatory morning dip shortly after...
  18. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above With the exception of some pre-market and mid morning exuberance, QQQ stayed pretty level for most the day. In contrast, TSLA managed to climb above 174 in late morning trading and then spent much of the rest of the day near 173. My guess is that some capping...
  19. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Same happens to me with my M3 with stalks on FSD. It's about the software, not the stalks.
  20. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Friday morning began with news at 8:30am that jobs were stronger in the U.S. according to CNBC. QQQ remained relatively unfazed by the news but TSLA took a noticeable drop. Again, we saw an exaggerated MMD for TSLA compared to QQQ, likely due to above average...
  21. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    @Xepa777, Do yourself a favor and turn on a basketball game to watch this weekend instead of posting incessantly to try and scare TSLA investors. While you're at it, watch a few youtube videos of Falcon 9 boosters landing on barges. Amazing things have happened and are happening at Elon Musk...
  22. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above I must admit to nearly laughing out loud when I checked my iphone at 7am Hawaii time, noon Eastern time. TSLA was up more than 5% but my Apple news feed for TSLA yet again didn't mention a word about some breakthrough in full self driving. Other news sources...
  23. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above If Tuesday was the day when TSLA's low Q1 deliveries dip was cushioned by investors buying for the FSD play at TSLA, Wednesday was the day when TSLA outperformed the macros and gave added proof that the new buyers are willing to forgive a weak quarter to get...
  24. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Pardon me if this was already posted but... @Artful Dodger replied via PM to a few of us who expressed concern. Artful is fine but busy with a family health issue. Hoping to check in this weekend. No surprise- hasn't sold any TSLA shares.
  25. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above On Tuesday, 1Q24 delivery numbers came in lower than expected at 386,810, and noticeably below 1Q23's deliveries of 422,875. The day got off to a rocky start with the macros well in the red. Even after the sizable recovery shown by QQQ above, Nasdaq closed...
  26. Papafox

    FSD 12.3.3 in Hawaii

    I drive almost daily from Kailua to Wahiawa with v12.3.1. Well over 90% of my issues were fixed with move from v11 to v12. I do notice that v12.3.1 still has an issue with getting over to the left lane fast enough when northbound in Wahiawa in order to make a left turn in 3 blocks. I solve for...
  27. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Monday began with a strong spurt to the macros, but that cooled as manufacturing numbers came in strong and Mr. Market started fretting about that oh-so-wished-for June rate cut by the fed. Strong economic data such as this suggests inflation, and yields on 10...
  28. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've been seeing big spikes up and down in the after-hours TSLA prices. Looks like we have nervous traders on both sides. Every time I think I see something real I check Press Releases | Tesla Investor Relations to see if the Q1 P&D post is up yet.
  29. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Let's get pretty quickly through Friday's stock move so that we can talk about the week ahead. TSLA lost 2.25% to Nasdaq's 0.12% loss. Was this market makers pulling TSLA closer to the 175 max pain number on a Friday? Perhaps. Percent of selling tagged to...
  30. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above TSLA Yahoo chart above to show after hours pop The tug of war with TSLA continues this week as the stock attempts a close above 180. It's still fear of the Q1 Production and Delivery report vs. longer-term optimism sparked by FSD v12.3. Some analysts are downgrading TSLA...
  31. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Adam Jonas merely spoke publicly about the approx. delivery numbers that everyone from Troy to Vin counters, to weekly China insurance data watchers are acutely aware of. The delivery numbers are going to be much closer to 425K than 475K because the high number has been stale for months and not...
  32. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA remained strong after hours TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Tuesday started with both TSLA and QQQ green in the pre-market trading. TSLA managed to jump all the way up to above 184 in the morning. Alas, with the macros slowing (then not-so slowly) falling as the day progressed, this...
  33. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above TSLA was following the lead of QQQ and trading lower into market open. Alas, TSLA jumped higher right after market open while QQQ sank. My guess is that this has been a big weekend for word getting out about FSD v12.3, and retail plus funds such as various ARK...
  34. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Between 11am and 1pm the market makers had TSLA perfectly positioned for the best max pain results, but after 1pm the macros rose and TSLA followed. Still, a close just 83 cents above max pain and the 48K tall call wall at 170 produced another very profitable...
  35. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Market manipulations not only exist, they're the norm with TSLA because there are so many options being traded and so much opportunity for the option sellers (such as market makers) to profit from some "tweaking" of the stock price. In my Tesla Charts post Thursday, I pointed out that the market...
  36. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Wednesday evening the after-hours action on QQQ and TSLA was hot and I held my breath that today it would continue. It did a bit, with QQQ hitting gains of about 1.2% at it's high, but that just wasn't enough to bring buyers to TSLA and remove the stock from...
  37. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above On Wednesday TSLA opened higher than QQQ and had a stronger day once it weathered the mandatory morning dip. TSLA started climbing in early afternoon. At 2pm the FOMC announcement confirmed that there would be no Fed rate changes from this meeting. Mr. Market...
  38. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Jerome Powell giving a balanced view of inflation vs economic growth so far. Often, we don't see the transition to Darth Powell until the Q&A portion comes up. Haven't seen claws or fangs so far. Fingers crossed.
  39. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Jump up in Nasdaq and TSLA due to rates staying the same (as expected) and perhaps comments. The real test will be Powell's comments coming soon. Looks like Powell comments at 2:30pm
  40. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Please read the post, dark and stormy. My comment is clearly focused on market reaction to news from FOMC meeting.
  41. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Will be interesting to see if TSLA can assault 175 this week. The market makers have been vigilant in keeping TSLA from settling within about $1.50 of 175. A new development for Wednesday is that 170 calls have grown in number to over 50K calls and now the MMs really would like TSLA at least a...
  42. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Time constrained posts... TSLA appeared to move with QQQ (and Nasdaq) in pre-market and through 11am. As TSLA approached 172 it leveled off and remained more or less level as QQQ continued climbing into the green. Simple interpretation: market makers are...
  43. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Congratulations longs, TSLA climbed 6.25% on Monday compared to Nasdaq's 0.82% increase. To provide perspective, TSLA's gains of $10.23 came close to erasing the $11.77 losses TSLA incurred all last week. Looking at the charts above, QQQ and Nasdaq opened...
  44. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above On Friday we saw a reversal of Tuesday-Thursday when TSLA underperformed the Nasdaq. On Friday, TSLA on Friday was one of the few green stocks on my display, gaining 0.66% when the Nasdaq lost 0.96%. Because of the big put wall at 160 strike, I noted that the...
  45. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    A very interesting thing happened overnight on X.com with my post regarding the massive 220 and 230-strike put transactions of this week. Someone with access to trading information provided the timing of the trades, whether they were likely buys or sells, and provided likely profitability of the...
  46. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good grief, a mandatory morning dip! Who would have thunk? Looking at the max pain chart for the day, strike 160 is a put wall and everything above tends toward call-dominated strikes. I suspect the market makers would prefer a close above 160 today. Max pain is 172.50. MMs normally don't do...
  47. Papafox

    Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

    TSLA chart above QQQ chart above Thursday morning the PPI numbers came in hot, according to CNBC , up 0.6% which was twice the estimate. Neither QQQ nor TSLA seemed fazed by the news, but QQQ faded and spent the vast majority of the day in the red, with Nasdaq closing down 0.30%. TSLA perked...
  48. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Robyn Denholm has consistently been exercising 93,705 shares worth of options every month this year. Source: SECform4.com
  49. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Of course there is delta-hedging associated with disposing of the puts in the afternoon. I pointed out in my complaint that when fear is generated by a deep morning dip that fear leads to additional put buying by other investors and outright selling that extends throughout the day,. The rate of...
  50. Papafox

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes and no regarding the effect of massive option buying and then getting rid of those options in the afternoon. Certainly if someone was buying calls by the hundreds of thousands in the morning that would send the stock price higher. That was exactly the situation in 2020 when TSLA was climbing...