Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

The "current rate of progress" doesn't tell us exactly when it will exceed human performance. If you relied on the rate of progress from 2020-2023 then you would conclude it wouldn't reach robotaxi level for decades. Sounds silly right? The fact that miles / critical disengagements went from 100 to 400 in the last 6 months doesn't mean it's going to hit 30,000 miles per disengagement in 1 or 2 years. That slope will change unpredictably. I'd bet it gets steeper first, then slows down. But when, who knows?

How do they determine that the human didn't make a mistake by disengaging? What if the vehicle would have handled the situation if the supervisor didn't intervene?

That uncertainty of when is why TSLA is becoming a risky investment. If robotaxis are planned for production in 2 years, we are basically requiring progress to reach a high standard in a short window. Otherwise the produced cars are much less valuable.

Since Tesla doesn't provide disengagement data, the FSD Tracker critical disengagements is the best we have.

Because of the human element in disengagement any measurement of this will not be black and white.

The goal of Robotaxis is to eliminate the human element from the equation in order to improve safety. It would be unproductive to use data based upon frequency of human intervention as a measure of progress.

Unfortunately, it does seem that the best way to measure for whether or not a Robotaxi is "safe" will be from the same statistical methods that have traditionally been used. Actual cases which result in measurable damage to person or property. Which is the standard currently used to evaluate humans, is it not?

The uncertainty is not reduced simply because a human is involved.

The folks solving this at Tesla know this and certainly do rely upon the feedback from the supervisors of FSD in order to make improvements. However, critical disengagements are not a factor that can be used to determine whether or not FSD can operate a vehicle safely.

If that were the case, how many of our spouses should lose their driving privileges as a result of human intervention being voiced in any situation where they got through it fine by ignoring the intervening spouse entirely?

 

[Todd Burch]

Battery’s are available if planned for, but tesla doesn’t seem to have planned for sufficient numbers in the next 2/3 years.

Are you kidding? Tesla has entire departments, lots of smart people working on the battery supply chain.

For years on quarterly calls Elon has told battery suppliers that they will commit to buy every single cell that meets their requirements that they can get their hands on.

They’ve insourced their own battery production.

They’re producing their own lithium refining facility as we speak.

Battery Day?

How can you say with a straight face that Tesla hasn’t planned for sufficient numbers in 2/3 years?

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776709972216443315

What is the Chinese interest rate?

Lower than the US. Covid forced closures damaged them pretty badly.

 

[2daMoon]

Robo minibus will need to exist to be of benefit in zones where congestion is the limiting factor.

But don’t forget Musk responded with to Sawyer Merritt’s post about same platform for compact n robotaxi. If the one line makes both, switching at will, it protects Tesla from regulatory hurdles. They can keep winning with either product.

Been thinking about how FSD for people leads to FSD for goods, with humanoids assisting at the end points. Massive economic advantage to blocs who perfect this. Considering USA/China/Europe, none has a choice to not adopt. Economics drives it. Europe does not appear to have realised this yet.

I just think about the Unboxed graphic presentation and imagine the castings, battery, and drivetrain being configured to work with different body parts.

Perhaps even different castings and battery sizes to accommodate rear loading, extended chassis, or to maximize passenger space. Each designed so it can be assembled at the same Unboxed assembly station.

A 4 seat, followed by a van, followed by a small pickup, followed by a Boring tunnel shuttle, each being assembled one after the other by staging the incoming parts and programming the robots for the final assembly needs for each vehicle.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

This is false. A Critical Diengagent COULD occur when the *EV is on a collision course, but more often it is simply associated with an unsafe maneuver such as running a stop light or driving on the wrong side of the road or as @Discoducky reported still a common issue: driving past a "ROAD CLOSED" sign. This can happen even if no other human or vehicle is around, and it often does.



Now that we have established Critical Disengagements (CD) DOES NOT EQUAL collisions, there is absolutely no reason 30k miles between CD needs to be achieved. In most instances, the car could pull over and/or a human could likely remote in and solve the issue. This could realistically occur mostly and wouldn't be mission critical.

Yes you are right the ratio of critical disengagement to accident is not 1 to 1. It could be as high as say 2 or 3 to 1. But it will probably be a relatively stable ratio so the metric is still useful to track.

It may be something like 50,000 miles per critical disengagement is sufficient, as it would imply accident rate of 100k or 200k miles per.

But the rate of progress in those metrics will still be telling.

How do they determine that the human didn't make a mistake by disengaging? What if the vehicle would have handled the situation if the supervisor didn't intervene?



Because of the human element in disengagement any measurement of this will not be black and white.

The goal of Robotaxis is to eliminate the human element from the equation in order to improve safety. It would be unproductive to use data based upon frequency of human intervention as a measure of progress.

Unfortunately, it does seem that the best way to measure for whether or not a Robotaxi is "safe" will be from the same statistical methods that have traditionally been used. Actual cases which result in measurable damage to person or property. Which is the standard currently used to evaluate humans, is it not?

The uncertainty is not reduced simply because a human is involved.

The folks solving this at Tesla know this and certainly do rely upon the feedback from the supervisors of FSD in order to make improvements. However, critical disengagements are not a factor that can be used to determine whether or not FSD can operate a vehicle safely.

If that were the case, how many of our spouses should lose their driving privileges as a result of human intervention being voiced in any situation where they got through it fine by ignoring the intervening spouse entirely?

No, no one uses those metrics. NHTSA is not going to accept accident rates when supervised as meaning anything, for the simple example I gave you: accident rate can stay flat while the underlying technology improves massively.

Sure you can brag about it all you want, but it’s not telling you about the true progress. I’ve talked to many ML engineers and data scientists and no one would use that metric and especially would it be in a ML cost function.

Whereas critical disengagements absolutely is used.

I can only surmise people get obsessed with the supervised accident rate as a way to push that these systems should be required in most cars for safety (legitimate) or to pump the stock.

 

[MD70]

Are you kidding? Tesla has entire departments, lots of smart people working on the battery supply chain.

For years on quarterly calls Elon has told battery suppliers that they will commit to buy every single cell that meets their requirements that they can get their hands on.

They’ve insourced their own battery production.

They’re producing their own lithium refining facility as we speak.

Battery Day?

How can you say with a straight face that Tesla hasn’t planned for sufficient numbers in 2/3 years?

Because if they are going to mass produce another vehicle in the next 2/3 years in the US by now they will have signed a contract with a supplier who will start the work to produce the battery’s well before tesla plans to produce the vehicle.
The only exception to this if tesla itself rapidly increases battery production. Tesla could hide the progress but all the people watching the factories will notice when production ramps up.

 

[EQC_]

The problem with such simplistic logic is that ignores the reality that for most OEM's there si a major price range within each size category.
You say Corolla, it could be GR Corolla Morizo that was >US$50,000 base price.
Corolla is positioned as a small luxury car in some markets, and priced as such.
We've discussed this many times, size is not necessarily cheap=small, large=expensive.
Even Camry was designed originally to be a cheap big American to compete with Chevrolet and Ford. It worked. Times have changed and Ford does not even have sedans in the US.

Regardless of exactly what Tesla says in terms of positioning we may be assured there will be more and less expensive variants. That is true for Models S3XY and Cybertruck, so why will it not be the case for the RoboTaxi and small car?

We keep explaining that, and somehow people keep ignoring reality. Sorry for the sarcasm, but it becomes hard to explain this over and over. As a repeat buyer of Performance model Tesla's higher prices, together with optional paint and interior plus other things, I understand that Tesla certainly knows how to do that. RoboTaxi will have multiple options whether they say so at launch or not. That is the way things work!

Take a quick look at the Uber menu. That have variable cost by vehicle class too. Some people always buy Black.

I think you read meaning I didn't intend. Mostly my fault, since I tend to ramble on and type too much. I totally understand that small car doesn't mean cheap, and I've noted before that initially offering high trim/higher cost versions of the Model 2 could be useful.

I was also sort of limiting my thinking to the US market, since initial Model 2's are expected from Austin. On an international scale, many more pieces of market analysis and pricing come into play, as you noted.

 

[wtlloyd]

I have assumed the model 2 announcement would be at the time that production was starting, for obvious Osborning reasons.
I now assume that Elon chose to state that the RT would be announced on 8/8. He just didn't add that the Model 2 would be introduced at the same time.

 

[Xepa777]

View attachment 1036065

With the free trial for a month, this curve will accelerate and easily surpass 1.5B miles by 8/8 and 2B is certainly possibly. It's difficult to extrapolate because the slope just steepened thanks to the trial.

So why are you here? This is a thread for investors - are you one?

I enjoy being right. That's why I do investing instead of political debates, because your bank account proves whether you're right or wrong. And I've been VERY right compared to everyone here over the last year. I'm here because I've been pointing the delusions on this site since everyone aggressively slammed Wall Street and Gary when they doubted the 20 million number, and we had really moronic predictions from people like The Accountant and Gigapress who take best case scenario assumptions as baseline truths in their models. And people here who were ignoring the signs of the 4680 battery slowdown when even Limiting Factor started turning on it after the first tear downs. Warning against people who took that clown James Duoma seriously about all his FSD praise like 3 years ago (oh look we're 3 years in the future and no robotaxi). Also saying things like how Tesla needs to be end-to-end to have any shot at FSD because hard coding any logic wouldn't work. And people were like "oh you think you know more than Elon?!?!?!" Guess I did. And it's all the effing negativity and inability to have an objective perspective from people like @Krugerrand that have totally poisoned this place. And thus, you're enduring this fall. Except uplike two years ago, it's actually justified this time because Tesla sales are down YoY while BYD is pumping out the car Tesla should've pumped out two years ago.


So now I'm simply here to say "told you so" and to keep planting more flags when I return in the future when my predictions are proven right again.

Now you can be salty at me or heed my words:

Tesla probably gets FSD working in suberban areas at the worst case scenario (they will probably disguise the language by saying they're production constrained and choosing where to saturate a market, but in reality it's because FSD will only work on easy areas). Does that move the stock? Maybe, IDK.

IF FSD is solved in the next decade, probably Tesla who does it first (Waymo can technically be deployed in most major cities but i don't see the path to high valuation with how costly their implementation is).

Tesla gets Optimus working before robotaxis, and depending on how easy it is to train it to do new tasks Tesla makes a bajillion dollars (because Figure AI is a joke if you look at the CEO's background/words on Twitter, Figure's origin, and the FOMO VC money that went into there... and it's wild how stupid/replaceable many jobs are).

Tesla Energy with corporate installations becomes bigger than auto by 2030 (give or take 3 years). Power walls suck and will never compete in retail, but the software reliability for corporate/utility application justifies the "Tesla premium" and that alone makes Tesla a huge huge market. Hedging this statement based on development of zinc, sodium, and other batteries and where Tesla stands on that.

Where you put your money is up to you. Rates can get cut next year with Republican congress and Tesla's valuation runs regardless of fundamentals. I probably think this stock is dead for the next 1-2 years though. I'm riding out the current crypto wave and probably rotating back into Tesla when next bear market happens (funny, so many people shitting on me for the innovative tech in crypto that they don't understand and call a ponzi scheme when Tesla is now in the same boat of cutting edge tech most laugh at them for vs. safe predictable cash flow of unit volume sales). Still have several thousands shares in my taxable accounts, so I'm still in unfortunately. About to put in $50k into xAI as I'm getting class A preferred share access. But enjoy downvoting me and losing money y'all, vs. trying to have objective discussions.

 

[cusetownusa]

In regards to FSD. I just got a text from Tesla advertising that I could get 1 month of FSD if I buy a Tesla. Am I the only one here that doesn’t see any value in that? I’m somewhat of a tech nerd (relative to everyone else in my bubble) and while I think the current version of FSD is pretty cool, I still see very little value in it (except for roadtrips on the highway). I get the impression that Tesla expects a significant FSD adoption rate with the current month trial but I am highly skeptical of that.

I am even more skeptical of Robotaxis being a thing, especially anytime soon. While FSD works great, it still isn’t even close to handling a lot of situations. Am I missing something?

In addition, I know it’s a big world but even if robotaxis were solved tomorrow, I would still want to own my car, even if RT were free. How could I rely on one to commute to work, grocery shop, haul stuff, bring kids to practice, out of town vacations or sports tournaments, etc?

I read ARK thesis on this and it just seems like pie in the sky type of analysis. I hope I am wrong, with Tesla going all in on RT, this is the first time I am questioning my investments.

 

[MC3OZ]

Whoever came up with such a silly idea as a two seater?
For certain it was nobody at Tesla!

The idea comes from a photo of a car model in the Issacson book.

For trips for more than 2 passengers existing Models 3/Y,S/X can do the job. As there is no need for a driver, there is an extra seat available.

Statistics probably show that most taxi trips are for 1-2 people. What is needed is comfortable seating for 1-2 adult passengers and adequate luggage space.

As there are no rear passengers and no need to drive the vehicle, the seats don't need to move backwards and forwards...

There is no need for a centre console so the Robotaxi can have narrow frontal area and hence reduced drag, on roads and in boring tunnels a smaller size allow more vehicles per mile of roadway.

I think it is likely that the 25K compact car is a stretch/ 4 seat version of the Robotaxi. It probably has less luggage space but it seats more people.

When booking via the app the number of passengers and the amount of luggage can easily be specified in advance via the app, so the right type of vehicle can turn up.

In future there is probably a van coming and we may see versions of Model 3/Y S/X that are better adapted to Robtoaxi use.

 

[GhostSkater]

“So what? Other automakers had automated parking for a long time”

Worth the watch

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776595141240779099

 

[MC3OZ]

In addition, I know it’s a big world but even if robotaxis were solved tomorrow, I would still want to own my car, even if RT were free. How could I rely on one to commute to work, grocery shop, haul stuff, bring kids to practice, out of town vacations or sports tournaments, etc?

A family with young children definitely needs 1-2 cars, a private car works best for holidays / road trips...

The next question is - How often do you use all of the stuff in your car?

For shopping you need to book a Robitaxi to come to your house to pick you up and either keep that car or book another for the return trip home with the shopping. So you might pay to keep the Robotaxi in a car park at the shopping centre. Depending on the type of shop you are doing, you might choose a different vehicles. For a trip to get building supplies Cybertruck is clearly the best option... For a large fairly conventional shopping trip Model S/X.

I can see people owning a private car but occasionally booking a Robotaxi for some trips because they can choose a vehicle that suits the task at hand..

For a road trip you own vehicle is superior, because it can be packed up in advance, and you are driving a long distance over multiple days, the cost of a Robotaxi might add up on a long duration trip.

It is also true that Robtaxis might eventually support a mode similar to car hire, book the vehicle for multiple days and pick up / drop off in selected locations., The difference here is you don't need to bother with paperwork / insurance, since you are not driving.

 

[Thumper]

It is already cheap to rent a Uhaul truck mid-week for building materials or rent from Home Depot. Much more economical than owning a pickup if you don't haul often.

 

[Papafox]

I enjoy being right. That's why I do investing instead of political debates, because your bank account proves whether you're right or wrong. And I've been VERY right compared to everyone here over the last year. I'm here because I've been pointing the delusions on this site since everyone aggressively slammed Wall Street and Gary when they doubted the 20 million number, and we had really moronic predictions from people like The Accountant and Gigapress who take best case scenario assumptions as baseline truths in their models. And people here who were ignoring the signs of the 4680 battery slowdown when even Limiting Factor started turning on it after the first tear downs. Warning against people who took that clown James Duoma seriously about all his FSD praise like 3 years ago (oh look we're 3 years in the future and no robotaxi). Also saying things like how Tesla needs to be end-to-end to have any shot at FSD because hard coding any logic wouldn't work. And people were like "oh you think you know more than Elon?!?!?!" Guess I did. And it's all the effing negativity and inability to have an objective perspective from people like @Krugerrand that have totally poisoned this place. And thus, you're enduring this fall. Except uplike two years ago, it's actually justified this time because Tesla sales are down YoY while BYD is pumping out the car Tesla should've pumped out two years ago.


So now I'm simply here to say "told you so" and to keep planting more flags when I return in the future when my predictions are proven right again.

Now you can be salty at me or heed my words:

Tesla probably gets FSD working in suberban areas at the worst case scenario (they will probably disguise the language by saying they're production constrained and choosing where to saturate a market, but in reality it's because FSD will only work on easy areas). Does that move the stock? Maybe, IDK.

IF FSD is solved in the next decade, probably Tesla who does it first (Waymo can technically be deployed in most major cities but i don't see the path to high valuation with how costly their implementation is).

Tesla gets Optimus working before robotaxis, and depending on how easy it is to train it to do new tasks Tesla makes a bajillion dollars (because Figure AI is a joke if you look at the CEO's background/words on Twitter, Figure's origin, and the FOMO VC money that went into there... and it's wild how stupid/replaceable many jobs are).

Tesla Energy with corporate installations becomes bigger than auto by 2030 (give or take 3 years). Power walls suck and will never compete in retail, but the software reliability for corporate/utility application justifies the "Tesla premium" and that alone makes Tesla a huge huge market. Hedging this statement based on development of zinc, sodium, and other batteries and where Tesla stands on that.

Where you put your money is up to you. Rates can get cut next year with Republican congress and Tesla's valuation runs regardless of fundamentals. I probably think this stock is dead for the next 1-2 years though. I'm riding out the current crypto wave and probably rotating back into Tesla when next bear market happens (funny, so many people shitting on me for the innovative tech in crypto that they don't understand and call a ponzi scheme when Tesla is now in the same boat of cutting edge tech most laugh at them for vs. safe predictable cash flow of unit volume sales). Still have several thousands shares in my taxable accounts, so I'm still in unfortunately. About to put in $50k into xAI as I'm getting class A preferred share access. But enjoy downvoting me and losing money y'all, vs. trying to have objective discussions.

@Xepa777, Do yourself a favor and turn on a basketball game to watch this weekend instead of posting incessantly to try and scare TSLA investors. While you're at it, watch a few youtube videos of Falcon 9 boosters landing on barges. Amazing things have happened and are happening at Elon Musk ventures. For good measure, watch an X.com video of the quadriplegic who is now playing online chess after his neuralink implants. It's really tiresome having you rain on our parade as you do. An occasional shower isn't bad, but you've long reached the constant drizzle stage.

 

[nativewolf]

FWIW, Uber is global, and semi-automatically shifts user data to local for frequent travelers. I use US, Brazil, UK, France and Greece with some frequency. Each of those locations have predominant use by business people and residents. Avoind drunk driving types may be relevant but I would not know.

We’re robotaxi to be able to handle the multi-city multi-country crowds they could have premium pricing and frequent use just as Uber does. Zero doubt that large cities will provide most volume and almost all the profits.

Robotaxi could create new markets.

If Uber counts it reportedly is far more concentrated in large cities than you suggest.
More like 90% very large cities (I.e. >2 million in urban cores and airports/hotels/hospitals etc.)

Then there is the lucrative market for, say, Model X, robotaxi for executive transport. The major business centers have fleets of for-hire luxury vehicles. How many of those could be replaced is another question. Personally, I tend to prefer a driver who can do other tasks than just driving when on business trips. Luxury hotels worldwide have such fleets available.

Well i was being generous to Tesla, I think it is true that 50% of the profits come from 10 cities. The average Uber user is still basically the same as 5 years ago, it's people entertaining, avoiding traffic, or traveling. It's a giant smart taxi service but that's the market Tesla will be targeting.

I think that there is a huge market for Robotaxi to service under served communities, substance abusers, elderly, handicapped.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Small Robotaxi - 2 seats
Unveil - 8/8/24
First production - May 25 (Austin)
First delivery - Tesla network only Dec 25

Compact Crossover - 4 seats with steering wheel
Unveil - November 24
First production - Aug 25 (Berlin then Shanghai then Mexico)
First delivery - Dec 25

Medium Robotaxi - 4 seats compact crossover without steering wheel
Unveil - November 24
First production - Aug 26 (Austin)
First delivery - Dec 26

What's wrong?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776575354452205679

 

[GOVA]

Just came back from 'neighborhood sightseeing' on full FSD. Earlier, we had gone to HS games, lunch, etc. About 70 miles total today. It is still mindboggling that we've hardly touched the steering wheel this week.

I am literally going to cry and/or find 12K and get the FSD at the end of this trial. Having 2xMY is hard because we'd not know which one to equip with the FSD.

I postulate that Elon would consider some sort of "family plan" to get the FSD in case there are multiple Teslas in one home.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I enjoy being right. That's why I do investing instead of political debates, because your bank account proves whether you're right or wrong. And I've been VERY right compared to everyone here over the last year. I'm here because I've been pointing the delusions on this site since everyone aggressively slammed Wall Street and Gary when they doubted the 20 million number, and we had really moronic predictions from people like The Accountant and Gigapress who take best case scenario assumptions as baseline truths in their models. And people here who were ignoring the signs of the 4680 battery slowdown when even Limiting Factor started turning on it after the first tear downs. Warning against people who took that clown James Duoma seriously about all his FSD praise like 3 years ago (oh look we're 3 years in the future and no robotaxi). Also saying things like how Tesla needs to be end-to-end to have any shot at FSD because hard coding any logic wouldn't work. And people were like "oh you think you know more than Elon?!?!?!" Guess I did. And it's all the effing negativity and inability to have an objective perspective from people like @Krugerrand that have totally poisoned this place. And thus, you're enduring this fall. Except uplike two years ago, it's actually justified this time because Tesla sales are down YoY while BYD is pumping out the car Tesla should've pumped out two years ago.


So now I'm simply here to say "told you so" and to keep planting more flags when I return in the future when my predictions are proven right again.

Now you can be salty at me or heed my words:

Tesla probably gets FSD working in suberban areas at the worst case scenario (they will probably disguise the language by saying they're production constrained and choosing where to saturate a market, but in reality it's because FSD will only work on easy areas). Does that move the stock? Maybe, IDK.

IF FSD is solved in the next decade, probably Tesla who does it first (Waymo can technically be deployed in most major cities but i don't see the path to high valuation with how costly their implementation is).

Tesla gets Optimus working before robotaxis, and depending on how easy it is to train it to do new tasks Tesla makes a bajillion dollars (because Figure AI is a joke if you look at the CEO's background/words on Twitter, Figure's origin, and the FOMO VC money that went into there... and it's wild how stupid/replaceable many jobs are).

Tesla Energy with corporate installations becomes bigger than auto by 2030 (give or take 3 years). Power walls suck and will never compete in retail, but the software reliability for corporate/utility application justifies the "Tesla premium" and that alone makes Tesla a huge huge market. Hedging this statement based on development of zinc, sodium, and other batteries and where Tesla stands on that.

Where you put your money is up to you. Rates can get cut next year with Republican congress and Tesla's valuation runs regardless of fundamentals. I probably think this stock is dead for the next 1-2 years though. I'm riding out the current crypto wave and probably rotating back into Tesla when next bear market happens (funny, so many people shitting on me for the innovative tech in crypto that they don't understand and call a ponzi scheme when Tesla is now in the same boat of cutting edge tech most laugh at them for vs. safe predictable cash flow of unit volume sales). Still have several thousands shares in my taxable accounts, so I'm still in unfortunately. About to put in $50k into xAI as I'm getting class A preferred share access. But enjoy downvoting me and losing money y'all, vs. trying to have objective discussions.

Can’t see much value added in your posts, bye.

 

[Skryll]

I enjoy being right. [...]

Power walls suck and will never compete in retail,

I might have bad news for you.