Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

“Lowest cost per kilometer in the electric SUV market (14.9 kWh/100 km)”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778353650668105923

With only 2 passenger spots, how much will this be for the Robotaxi? It may become the most economic transport device wrt to energy per passengerkilometer.

Wasn't someone just talking about a "Super Long Range" MY?

I agree a super long range MY is unlikely, in the US at least, which is why I said "over 500mi miles of range potential in MY." However, as battery supply ramps, they may revisit this little baby... Tesla files for a near 400-mile Model Y in China

Remember CATL has a 80GWh factory that has been ramping for over a year adjacent to Tesla in Shanghai...

CATL seen constructing new battery production facility in China

CATL continues to expand battery production in China. Its newest facility, coming online later this year, is currently in rapid construction.

www.google.com

As competition heats up in China, Telsa may need to pull out all the stops.

Thanks for the Ocean-to-Ocean info! Super interesting, I wasn't aware.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Well I also have an 11 year old leaf

Mine is 10

 

[Papafox]

In the daily charts forum, @2Pearls wrote:
Would like to give an opposing view of Sasha as not every person on the internet is correct, proceed and caution at your own risk. I have listened to Meet Kevin for the last 3 years, and whether you like or dislike him, I do think he keeps it real and brings understanding to complicated issues. Please view this to give you more perspective.

Thanks.

Here's a quick reminder that if you have a comment regarding my daily charts thread, post it here in the main investors' forum, rather than in the daily charts forum. That way, the mods won't remove your comment and I do respond to posts addressed to me in this forum. Your link provides a worthwhile criticism of Sasha's post. I also questioned his conclusions and believe that blaming inflation increases in these specific areas on overly-large profits is a likely-incorrect conclusion that simply cannot be reached without a deeper dive into the finances.

What I did agree with Sasha on was that three inflation items pushing the number upwards, shelter, oil, and transportation services (insurance), are items that raising interest rates is not a good strategy for lowering. For Shelter, rents have been under control, but the cost of a new home to purchase is actually made higher by high interest rates both because there's less building with higher interest rates and because monthly mortgage payments are elevated which affects rents charged. Fuel rates have gone up because of issues on the supply side of oil production and refining, not because of demand pressure. Finally, insurance premiums are up because of recent high payouts for disasters and other costs that migrate across insurance types. A reduction in interest rates is not a terrible idea if the other elements of inflation are already under control.

Anyway, @2Pearls , you provide a needed counterpoint to Sasha's video, but it should be here in the main investors forum for all to see.

 

[cliff harris]

In discussing affordability, I think many investors on here forget that for the vast majority of people, a car is just a thing they annoyingly have to buy to get from A to B, and worse, they have to pay to insure it, and keep putting fuel in the thing, and even learning to operate it takes ages, and requires a special license... and for most people, they do not have the car of their dreams.
Most people commute, and sit in traffic a LOT of the time. They are not wealthy retired investors 'taking the car for a spin' to enjoy themselves. Their car is no different to their dishwasher.
Probably less so in the US, with its culture of road trips, and more car-focused cities, but for almost everyone I know, their car isn't special or something they are proud of...

The Tesla model 3 is AWESOME, but in a way, thats the problem. The average car buyer does not need model 3 acceleration, can do just fine using their phone as their satnav (they already have a phone so why not?), and in Europe at least, they don't need model 3 range or frankly, charging speed.

Tesla keep obsessing about cutting costs by removing stalks, ultrasonic sensors... rain sensors, and are experimenting now with no paint. But they never compromise the key stats of acceleration, range and charge speed. Frankly this may be a mistake when it comes to a compact car / model 2.

A model 2 with nissan-leaf level acceleration/range/charge speed, but built by Tesla, thus with supercharging access built in, and with the FSD computer & sensors (upgrade route for FSD) would sell very well. I just checked UK prices, and even the bottom range model 3 is massively out of reach for almost everyone I know.

TL;DR: I don't think a cheaper 3/Y is ever going to get Tesla enough market share. They need a truly compact, truly affordable no-frills car. I hope Elon & Franz have spent some time trying out truly affordable entry-level cars.

 

[Usain]

As I thought, North America did lose a lot of sales in Q1.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778503326138548352

View attachment 1037787

I'm wondering how much of this is due to the new phone system. You can't even call your local sales center any more. When you try to call the local number you just get some automated maze of "press 1 to go F yourself". This is not the way to treat someone who is looking to drop $50,000 on a vehicle.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm wondering how much of this is due to the new phone system. You can't even call your local sales center any more. When you try to call the local number you just get some automated maze of "press 1 to go F yourself". This is not the way to treat someone who is looking to drop $50,000 on a vehicle.

I have owned multiple Teslas since 2016, i gave up calling the local service/sales centers after my first call. I can imagine it has only gotten way worse with the exponential volume of Teslas out there.

 

[Musskiah]

FSD 12.3.3 tried to ditch my car today in slow motion. I posted a detailed account in the "12.x (E to E AI) thread" FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

I am no longer pushing hopium until FSD 12.4.x

 

[Musskiah]

Maybe the style, I did not watch it, but your summary points indicate he’s simplistic, a trifle histrionic and wrong on the facts. It is perhaps trendy to blame companies for ‘insane profits’ rather than examine the fundamentals in each case.
Blaming ‘profiteering’ and ‘insane profits’ is an excuse for superficial generalizations. Not useful!

Youu were exactly right. Overly simplistic. I agree the video is bunk.

 

[hobbes]

Not in NL either. I can only assume it is a phased introduction, maybe to gague demand or control for production constraint. With France and NL presumably "coming soon".

In Germany it is available.

 

[2daMoon]

Face it: I'm not speculating anymore than anyone else on here, you just don't like what I have to say so you treat it differently (mostly with low-level ad hominem comments).

It isn't you, specifically. Some of what you contribute has been fine. It is only that, when what you write seems worthy of questioning, it might just be questioned.

When you get on a high horse and go on about how right you have been, the natural response is to call you on it.
Most people have the good sense not to say things like that to begin with, for all the obvious reasons.
When someone does, without providing supporting data, it is fluff.

If you insist on attempting to bolster your thesis with boasts, you should be prepared to answer for it.
In poker this is "calling the bluff."

If it isn't worth your time to dig though the archives and corroborate such claims, it certainly isn't worth anyone else's time to do so for you.

Most will probably agree that you are not the only one being called out for this sort of behavior. That is generally a good thing, as it can lead to higher quality posts that do not rely on intangibles.

 

[Baumisch]

Meanwhile 12.3.4 available for my 2017 S.

2017 - is this on HW2.5 or HW3?
If HW 2.5 - is this the first FSDb for <HW3 cars?

 

[RCFLMA]

2017 - is this on HW2.5 or HW3?
If HW 2.5 - is this the first FSDb for <HW3 cars?

 

[EVNow]

For years, Tesla has been getting deeper into people's wallets than legacy car companies can. When I bought my Model S in 2013, I had been driving a 2002 Civic for 11yrs and a Hyundai Elantra was one of my options for replacing it. Then my TSLA stock took off, and instead of leaving it in my wallet, I bought a Tesla instead of another gas-guzzler

That’s neither here nor there. Why you bought S in 2013 ( or for that matter I bought a Leaf in 2011) are not the same reason why people buy a Tesla today.

 

[RCFLMA]

FSD 12.3.4 downloaded today to my Feb 2017 Model S90D which came with AP2 and had the hardware (MCU & camera) upgraded a few years ago. I do not have HW3.

Took it for a test drive around suburban Western Massachusetts - the FSD was excellent and matched my FSD experience in my wife's 2020 Model Y.

The first 130k miles have been great. Looking forward to the next 130k....

 

[MP3Mike]

I do not have HW3.

Yes, you do:

had the hardware (MCU & camera) upgraded a few years ago.

That MCU upgrade include HW3...

 

[EVNow]

Critical disengagement. That rate is somewhere between 200-400 miles right now, up from 100 miles last year.

I expect the rate of improvement to increase from V11 before because of end to end and increased compute allowing bigger gains as the "easier" stuff gets picked off. 3x in 4 months is a guess, I don't see any evidence from other models of multiple orders of magnitude improvements in a short period of time. Then there are other limiting factors that begin to get involved and rate of progress may taper a bit as with most trained models.

As I noted elsewhere the difference between critical and non-critical can be very subjective. What we need is # of interventions and proper std classification by Tesla that they disclose. Basically Tesla doesn’t disclose anything investors need to estimate impact of FSD on EPS (before Robotaxi actually is possible in a few years/decades).
- take rate
- # of subscribers
- disengagement and intervention rate, including classification
- Rate of change of all the above

 

[Baumisch]

The Tesla model 3 is AWESOME, but in a way, thats the problem. The average car buyer does not need model 3 acceleration, can do just fine using their phone as their satnav (they already have a phone so why not?), and in Europe at least, they don't need model 3 range or frankly, charging speed.

Tesla keep obsessing about cutting costs by removing stalks, ultrasonic sensors... rain sensors, and are experimenting now with no paint. But they never compromise the key stats of acceleration, range and charge speed. Frankly this may be a mistake when it comes to a compact car / model 2.

A model 2 with nissan-leaf level acceleration/range/charge speed, but built by Tesla ...

I disagree - imho the M3/Y are price-leaders in terms of their sectors and brackets. And don't forget Teslas are fully specced, the others are entry prices without features like laneassist, no matrix LED etc ...

I want my M2 performance ludacris - I am happy if there's a base M2 for 25k, but give me the 50k one please

 

[replicant]

I don't know about you but when $TSLA goes up, i go out and buy more things...j/k. The problem is the majority of people, esp in this generation, want to live for the now and the gram. It does not matter if he/she is $1M in debt, as long as he/she looks the part, that is all that matters. Here is some food for thought: What do you see when you walk onto a college campus? Tons of tents offering you free gifts to sign up for a credit card? Why you ask? You are fresh out of high school and you are given a CC with a limit of $3-$5k most likely.
What do you know about managing debt? Absolutely nothing! By the time you graduate, you are so far behind the 8 ball, you cannot spare any $ to invest and it will probably take you a good 5-10 years to pay off this debt, not including any student loans if you have any.
What does this all mean? It means that you will probably be working till 65+ because you will be so far behind in investing because of the debt you incurred in college. This keeps you in the work force for almost the majority of your life and keeps businesses happy with workers.
This is another reason why financial literacy is not taught in High School, they wanna keep you in the rat race for as long as they can and you won't figure it out until you are older!!

Rant over..back to $TSLA

Some trends to explain this phenomena Thread by @Travis_Kling on Thread Reader App

 

[jerry33]

Like I said, you are an outlier. Nationwide, the average electrician makes $61,391 per year. This site puts the high range at about $100k per year:

Electrician Salary: State-by-State Average Pay Rates in 2024

How much do electrical contractors make in your state? An electrician salary database has the answer.

www.servicetitan.com

Most people don't need a panel upgrade. Unfortunately, some do. But it's the exception and not the rule.

Anyway, my point was that for most homeowners, L2 installation cost is not a significant factor in EV adoption.

In some cases the panel upgrade was needed anyway because many older homes were built with panels that used breakers which didn't always trip when they needed to.

 

[Xd85]

2017 - is this on HW2.5 or HW3?
If HW 2.5 - is this the first FSDb for <HW3 cars?

Original equipment HW 2.5, upgraded to HW3 (FSD computer) MCU2 upgrade 2022