Search results

now THIS begins to feel like optimism.

Accountant as a profession here. That's not how it works. Simplified, gross profit = delivered units x (ASP - COGS). Delivered units is known. 443k is a good number, but not a surprise anymore. ASP and COGS have little room for surprise So where's the massive profit is coming from?

Once again the motto here is don't try to time where the train stops. Look for cracks in the track. In this case, l expect at least (but likely) 1 more big spike after a big pullback. Pullback from around 230 would be best but can go higher. Once that big pullback appears, then we'll observe how...

The timing here was semi-wrong but not the point. The point here is the "child play" part. It's the reason I've been super skittish for the last 2 months. The 1st leg in TSLA is rarely, if ever, the strongest. If the 1st leg went $60 in 5 days, be very afraid of the 2nd. This is not it. No sign...

a month ahead of you

I dont see optimism yet. this is far from what you normally see at the top. hell the other thread is still talking about fsd and delivery instead of new ath.

below 191.

June 11th?

That's nothing to write home about. The difference between 1 and 3 in how deep the pullback will be is about $3. The big trend is up. Sometimes I list those out to have something to refer back to when things become clearer. Absent a big miss tomorrow, the squeeze should go on. I wonder how...

you can send that cash to my Advisory firm. We'll help you get rid of it, be it the cash or the FOMO.

At this point I think I'm gonna stop posting. Too much hassle for too little result.

What do you mean what do I mean? I told everyone on Friday to expect 1 more spike after a pullback to 195-199, which can go to 230.

Nobody cares what dl003 says anyway. I still see opened CCs in trouble after that dip to 195. what are you guys doing?

consensus is 440k but whisper number is the magical 420k

One thing about having a boat load of money, is you can use it to tell everybody else what to think. Big money is not going to wait for the good news to come out and buy with the rest of us. They're going to use seasonality and math & psychology to create FOMO before the facts and sell after.

Monday - Tuesday.

I'm gonna wait for 199-195.

I dont know I only know where it will likely end up after blowing off. The blowing off part is always exciting as everybody gets sucked in but Ive seen this movie a hundred times.

one thing throwing a wrench in this triangle pattern is the run from 177 to 188.5. I cant count it as ABC, only as 12345, and triangle is a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern. so, the shape is a triangle but the sub-structure is contradictory.

The stock is now $2 higher than when I called the top yesterday. I dont think that takes 188 off the table. once again Im holding long puts instead of selling calls because the risk is defined.

what did you suppose this was?

Yes and added more 7/12 175Ps

I think we saw the high and sub 180 is next. I'm in 175P for 7/5 and 7/12.

thats 100% my read.

Ive been bullish since Tuesday pulled back when it should. support then held. it feels as if these calls buyers and put sellers suddenly showed up the last 2 days after reading my posts.

There are 2 parts to someone leaving Tesla and joining xAI. 1. They leave Tesla. 2. They join xAI Can you prove that 1 happens because of 2, under Elon Musk's directives? Correlation is not causation.

Whether other companies can come up with an AGI solution or not is irrelevant to his claim of wanting control over HIS OWN solution. A pharmaceutical company has to make sure its drugs are safe no matter how many other companies are making the same drugs. No it doesnt. Strawman. Irrelevant...

word on the street is software engineer salary at Tesla is not the best and Elon seems to be pretty ruthless when it comes to letting people go. So, am I surprised that some AI folks who are all the rage these days possibly want to move on from Tesla at some point? Not really. Do I think Elon...

That's a long answer for "will tomorrow be red or green?"

Oxygen is necessary for living but you don't see me out murdering my neighbors. The stealing part. Yeah, no. Sounds like FUD to me.

Why fishy? "AI" is a general term. Not all AIs are the same or require the same type of data to train. xAI, aka Grok, if you know what it is, aims to complete against the likes of ChatGPT. ChatGPT and Grok do not consume the type of data generated by Tesla cars. Grok takes data from X while FSD...

As someone who has chronically engaged in naked selling of both puts and calls, my experience is given enough time, Murphy's law will be the rule of the game. I'm not trying to scare you, as apparently I'm still routinely doing it. However, at a certain stage, consolidation is my go-to strategy...

by consolidating, I dont mean to cut losses on some of them. I'd just do something like this So you pay $2600 total and end up with 65x -130C. That will put an end to your worry about losses racking up on the upside and having to take unneccessary risks on the downside. Sure, if the stock ends...

the best thing to do is consolidate all your calls into 65 short calls so that you are not naked on anything, then we can talk TA.

ultimately, I think it has a little more to go. Maybe Thursday - Friday at 181. Today is the 1st leg.

If it closes this high, beware of news in the AH.

I already sold 6/28 200C's last Thursday. Now just chilling. This is simply short covering after that bearfest on Friday. That's why I drew a dead cat into the 186 area before turning down next week.

you forgot this. ;) Wouldn't mean much if drawn after the fact.

Based on my experience, these are *sugar* calls bought to reduced margin on, or hedge against short NTM calls or common shares. They must have been loaded a while back when TSLA was still in the 300+ range. Since then, they became pointless to close out as the premium is now nearly equal to the...

The 3 is using 2170. The answer is currently Panasonic isnt making enough 2170 to supply the 3 production in the US. 4680 is going into Semi and CT and they are trying their best but currently no excess capacity for much else. So Im gonna ask again: for everyone who is disappointed with a...

That doesn't answer my question. If battery cells are readily available in the US to the extent they can support that 2-door car, why are we using Chinese batteries in the 3?

First rule of pumping is we don't talk about the pump. 2nd rule of pumping is we don't talk about the pump. If people keep talking about a pump, it won't pump. True pump only comes when nobody expects it.

Then, why are they having to use Chinese batteries in the 3?

Question: where are you going to get the batteries for this mythical 2-door? They don't even have enough US made batteries for the 3.

that was the boom. Didn't get the retracement which is now finally underway.

oh I closed my position yesterday :) in general though, we don't always have a time and date, much less the catalyst. sometimes *sugar* just comes out in the middle of the day with no warning. The Musk factor is too strong.

hopefully 250

yep, its not the volatility but the noise. theres always some existential drama going on.

im seriously considering selling and pivoting to nvda the industrial level of my stomach acid holding this stock is off the chart

I posted an update. 172.5 is now my bull/bear pivot. As long as it doesn't close any hourly candle below 172.5 I'll stay bullish.