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    SpaceX investor's thread

    I joined First Principles Group as a qualified purchaser but I was also not notified of any opportunity. I know their allocation was very small so I'm assuming they filtered by qualified purchasers, and then did another filter on top of that, perhaps either included only people they knew well...
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    SpaceX investor's thread

    I was debating that to myself. What is more likely, that Tesla will become a 7 Trillion dollar company in 10 years or that SpaceX will become a 1T dollar company? Also factor in the 20-25% carry on SpaceX and lack of liquidity to that analysis. I think it is pretty close actually. I will stick...
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    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Ahh that explanation on the tax expense makes a lot of sense, thank you - I had not considered that the profit might be unequally distributed between the foreign entities and the US entity. If most of the tax profit were in the foreign entities this would also be a factor in considering whether...
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    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe we know that Tesla will pay essentially zero corporate taxes for the full year 2020 in the United States, as any profit would be offset with Net Operating Loss Carryforwards? Should not the tax expense therefore be minimal, essentially just taxes in...
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    SpaceX investor's thread

    SpaceX in Talks for New Funds and $92 Billion Valuation: Report - Bloomberg Based on the article above, Nocturnal you may have just doubled your investment immediately... I really wanted to invest in Sharespost's current offering which may or may not have closed already, but this is suppose to...
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    SpaceX investor's thread

    After seeing two of you guys say you are in discussions with sharespost on a spacex investment, I sent them a message the other day on their site asking about it. They have not responded and I think they are ignoring me. This tells me the securities specialist they assigned to me doesn't know...
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    SpaceX investor's thread

    That is an apt analogy. I have no idea who the SPV above me is that actually owns the shares that I indirectly own. Unfortunately it is not paranoia either, as I heard about another spacex microventures fund that was forced to liquidate recently because the actual owner decided to sell, which...
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    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    I believe Zach said during Q2 conf call that reg credits in 2020 would be approximately double that of 2019. 2019 reg credits were $594M. Therefore 2X that is $1,188M, less Q1 and Q2 of $782M, gets you only $406M reg credits left for Q3 and Q4. I am expecting $210M reg credits for Q3, but I am...
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    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    In Q1, there was 14K more of cars produced than sold, which makes sense as finished goods inventory increased from $1.3B to $1.9B, and this $600M increase averages to around $40k cost per car which also makes sense (as $50k per ASP makes 20% margin). However, there is still $1.3B of finished...
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    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Stock based comp is recognized over the period in which it is earned, not when it is granted. Most option grants are therefore recognized (expensed) ratably over 4 years, assuming vesting terms of 25% per year with a 1 yr cliff. So I do not expect stock comp expense to change in Q1 due to...
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    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Everyone keeps talking about the deferred tax asset, but I am not that excited about it. I'm not saying that they won't release part of the valuation allowance, but I wouldn't count on it this quarter. I was a financial statement auditor for many years specializing in silicon valley startups...
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    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I used to be a financial statement auditor for a long time. I never dealt with hedging transactions, so I am also not completely sure, however I also believe this to be the case. My understanding is that Tesla would not get free cash from this, but rather any potential gains from these hedging...