I agree with this post. So long as we all concur that all 2020 quarters will be GAAP and non-GAAP positive anything beyond is 'surplus'. That said I am confident taht the Shanghai numbers are far too low. I think considering what we have already seen the highest probability outcome for GF-3 is to reach design capacity during Q2 with Model 3 at 20,000 and model Y incremental at 10,000. After that I fully expect that they will exceed nominal 60,000 capacity with the mix rapidly shifting towards Model Y. By Fourth quarter they should be exceeding the assumed 62,500 vehicles per quarter capacity. We do not need to be that aggressive at all as a base case. Fremont is clearly improving rapidly and the redesign for Model Y plus paint shop improvements will produce higher volumes.
A major factor for GM improvements, BTW, is that shipping to China will dramatically reduce, even for parts as they move to scheduled 100% MIC by Q3. Thus far they're moving much faster than expected, why would that suddenly stop? That seems to me to be unduly pessimistic.
One thing we do know about China parts supplies and production quality is that these tend to be well above industry norms (that comes from the two industry manufacturing people I know, so Tesla should be better). That suggests strongly that overall Shanghai performance will be better than our most optimistic speculation. We might see more fo that in GM than in volume.
Finally, to buttress my case. The same Brasil partner makes Hyundai and Chery. I am reliably informed that the Chery supplies are higher quality, quicker in response and cheaper than is Hyundai. This is apples and oranges except that Hyundai has been doing CKD+ since the late 1970's. Chery has been doing it for four years and was only formed in the late 1980's.
Thus cannot we be more optimistic, even in a base case?
