With regards to China, even if people buy less cars there, I'm not too worried for Tesla. Although it's somewhat of a guess at this point, I think they'll probably need on the order of 1.5 Gigafactories to saturate demand there long term, perhaps 2 Gigafactories.
For Fremont, my math was 350k per year = 87.5k per quarters, so 65k is an about 25% reduction. Combined with Tesla being demand constrained before, means it's probably more like 30%. You're right that I didn't subtract China numbers from that 87.5k, so that invalidates my math. By the way, where did you get the 10k/quarter to China number from?
Like I said, I can see how you'd be more bearish on Fremont. Although I'd be surprised to see more than 15% downside from those numbers, unless things really get out of hand. Perhaps something like ~12k S+X and 50-55k M3 from Fremont in a worst case excluding more large scale complete shut downs.
