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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    I have not done a spreadsheet, but I put the amount of cash needed at about $3 billion cash or cash equivalents needed to support the scale of an enterprise doing $15 billion in sales (roughly 300,000 cars per year at an average of $50,000 per car). In that assumption I believe TM has $750...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    Weighted average shares March 31, 2012 = 104,784,343 Weighted average shares June 30, 2012 = 105,242,452 Weighted average shares March 31, 2013 = 114,711,899 (fully diluted is 124,265,292 meaning the difference (over 9.5 million shares) are mostly options or convertible issues in the money)...
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    "The Model X will only be offered as all-wheel-drive" - Elon Musk

    For Tesla Motors to focus only on one version of the Model X likely involves significant costs savings. 1) less engineering, development and testing time and effort. 2) less risk of customer disappointment with different experiences. 3) less complexity in the production line by only have one...
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    So, what websites are useful as bookmarks that look good on the Tesla screen

    Try [inappropriate link removed by moderator] while you are driving. Very interesting.
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    I have been around this since 2008. I was a Roadster buyer. He was thanking us for buying that to fund the Model S. So perhaps I am a bit more immune to the Elon Musk charm. Elon is not above basic cash flow and capital costs. I am just repeating myself so I won't bother typing it all out again...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    They likely don't have significant costs yet for Model X. They are still in the mule stage for those. They likely have not yet even started building the production line in Fremont. But they have had significant startup costs for all of the new stores, service centers and Superchargers. So it...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    One of the Reddit comments raised a valid point that might puncture the expectations of Julian Cox. "Regular people (not just the first 10,000 proud tesla model S owners), will not be pre-paying for their vehicle and waiting months for it." The person got the number wrong, it appears that...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    The number to closely watch from Tesla over the next few quarters is cash or cash equivalents. In the absence of any new debt or equity offerings or repayments, is cash growing or declining as they scale up for Model X production? Plus they are still expanding production capacity of the Model S...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    To handle proportionally more vehicles, they also need proportionally more cash on the balance sheet to handle that scale of an overall enterprise enterprise. It is not reasonable to think that Tesla can grow from $2 billion in annual sales (now) to $15 billion in annual sales (approx 300,000...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    Under either scenario, to get that CCC, they need a healthy balance sheet (aka lots of cash) to get those terms from suppliers. Correct? As to CAPEX, everything is proportional. We can project towards Gen III numbers a bit comparing with current Model S numbers. To handle 300,000 cars per year...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    Just for rough comparison purposes, lets use Ford. $142 billion in sales revenue $26 billion in cash $102 billion in debt That includes all sorts of things like their finance division and other subsidiaries, so it is tough to make an apples to apples comparison. But they clearly maintain...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    Tesla doesn't collect 100% of the sales price up front. They collect about 3% of the cost up front via the $2,500 deposit. So there is a capital cost of production that Tesla carries on the books until full payment is made. I would argue that other auto manufacturers get paid by auto dealers...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    Julian, I don't think the auto industry functions as your believe. Auto manufacturers get paid right away by auto dealers. The cars that are building in inventory on auto lots "finished goods" are not carried on the books of any manufacturer. There is about 1-4 weeks between finished...
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    "Tesla. A Much Needed Reality Check (in depth)" - Julian Cox's Expert Analysis Posted

    I doubt Tesla has any control as a gatekeeper on a commodity cell that is universally used in laptops and can be supplied by numerous companies. If other car companies want the same type of cells and will commit to certain volumes, Panasonic and the others will scale up accordingly. Tesla does...
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    "The Model X will only be offered as all-wheel-drive" - Elon Musk

    I think there is likely some savings by reducing versions. Having to build AWD and RWD versions of the Model X is likely more expensive for both. If they decide to make all of the Model X line as AWD, there might be more overall savings because there is less development work (one instead of two...
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    Tesla hires Apple engineer to develop new cars

    I like it. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-hires-apple-engineer-develop-205629252.html DETROIT (AP) -- Electric car maker Tesla Motors has hired Apple Inc.'s chief Mac engineer to lead new vehicle development. Doug Field led the development of new products in his five years at Apple...
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    10/21 Munich Tesla Event with Elon Musk

    Most of Europe is paying over $8 per gallon for gas (converted from Euro/liter). The lure of the free Superchargers for life will be a very powerful factor in Germany and other countries once they are operational. As soon as there are a few news reports and videos on YouTube of German Model S...
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    Tesla getting ready to roll out a Level 2 Charging Network

    Larry, that dead horse has already decomposed. Battery swap appears DOA... Until TM announces a real swap station, it is all theory. In fact, hiring a person to focus on L2 charging seems completely unrelated to battery swap. Totally different focus. That job description is all about...
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    Tesla getting ready to roll out a Level 2 Charging Network

    Battery swapping was never a financially realistic solution for broad rollout. That is probably why nobody from TM (including Elon) talks about it any more. Yeah, technically it works. But the cost and logistics don't add up. They let it die quietly.
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    Elon Musk one of CNN's Top Ten Thinkers

    Those 10 seem like a stretch. I think maybe 3 or 5 deserve to be mentioned as top thinkers. Does designing an app to clear fire hydrants from being buried under snow really deserve to be compared to a guy who did Tesla, Spacex, SolarCity and Paypal?
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    Tesla getting ready to roll out a Level 2 Charging Network

    There was mention in Germany event the other day (from Elon) that they are providing free HPWC to any hotel that will make it available for public use.
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    10/21 Munich Tesla Event with Elon Musk

    Doesn't Mercedes have a seat on the board of Tesla Motors? I wonder how they feel about TM making such a big push in their home market.
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    10/21 Munich Tesla Event with Elon Musk

    Tesla must have about $70 million in deposits for Model X in their cash accounts. so right when those are disappearing due to Model X production, then Tesla starts collecting for Gen3 waiting list. It makes sense, otherwise they might show too much cash burn as those X deposits disappear.
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    10/21 Munich Tesla Event with Elon Musk

    That might be pushing it. I think Elon is being more than generous offering the $1,200 chargers free to those locations that make them publicly available. The real cost to Tesla is likely only $800-$900. It makes a lot of sense. Tesla gets hundreds of locations at 20 kW, for the equivalent...
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    10/21 Munich Tesla Event with Elon Musk

    If that is true and the same applies in the USA, I will personally go out and find him about 5 locations. We should get clarification if that is true for USA. I am sure many Model S owners will start scouting out hotel locations and doing the groundwork to get buy-in from hotel managers/owners.
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    Tesla promises: will/will not be a hotspot & 4 USB ports

    Hopefully we will have an upgrade option to get the Model S on LTE. I would pay a few hundred dollars to swap out the hardware if they can do it.
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    Power Folding Mirrors

    The only time I would use them is getting into the garage, which is a tight fit thru the entrance. Plenty of room once I am inside the garage. When I am in a parking lot, if possible I typically park way far away from other cars in the empty region. If a space looks at all tight, I refuse to...
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    Web Browser Issues

    Was there a reason Tesla didn't just use Chrome?
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    Model S to be on Top Gear US.

    I paused the video when it was on the Model S dash. It said approx 4800 miles on the car. The dash showed a date of May something. I think it was a P85+. It was tough to get a clear view of the rear no matter how many frames I checked.
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    Oregon Superchargers (location speculation, discussion)

    If you really want to blow them away, arrange for a pizza delivery while they are working.
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    Uh Oh - Ecotality Exploring Restructuring or Sale, Cites List of Challenges

    I am ... https://suncountryhighway.ca/ev-trip-planner/#.UmBp-_mTx8E There are tons of 90 amp and 100 amp J1772 chargers out there.
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    Elon Musk

    Elon bought the James Bond submarine car. It must be fun to be a billionaire. Now he just needs to buy an island and a white cat to stroke. http://www.theverge.com/2013/10/17/4849446/elon-musk-reportedly-won-auction-for-james-bond-submarine-car
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    Oregon Superchargers (location speculation, discussion)

    Looks like nleggatt will have a much easier trip coming home. Talk about amazing timing.
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    Tesla to use AT&T for 4G LTE

    If someone already has data tethering on their phone, does this matter? If we were to lose the free 3G connection, nothing would really change if my phone is in the car and setup to automatically connect and provide a wifi / bluetooth data connectivity?
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    Couple circles the country in a 60kwh Model S

    I am also hoping we get some blog like updates from Elon about his trip. That could be really entertaining. Hopefully it is not just a press release at the end saying he did it.
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    ? GM baling on their version gen 3 car

    As part of their Tesla review, the MBAs at GM did a study for switching GM to a model of doing all EVs. The results likely indicated that the transition would be so expensive that it would likely bankrupt GM again. Think of all of those assets they have built on a foundation of the ICE. GM has a...
  37. P

    Elon Musk

    Elon has a big lead. Pile on with more votes.
  38. P

    Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

    They do it for their home state news. Senators or House members will get the video clip of their own comments, then their PR person will send it to the various TV news outlets in the markets they are trying to reach.
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    Oregon Superchargers (location speculation, discussion)

    Great info, thanks for the update. Someone correct me if I am wrong, but isn't that the final piece needed for a pure Supercharger EV highway? Once the two in Oregon are complete and this Mt. Shasta Supercharger in northern California, there are no more significant gaps? EDIT: I just checked...
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    Drop-In Center Console now in the Tesla Model S online store

    I am still surprised something as basic as a center console is a stand alone option that would have to be purchased extra.
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    Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

    This sets up a new deadline for January 15th. On that day another set of sequester cuts begin automatically. It is already baked into the budget from 2011. The Republicans win by doing nothing, Jan 15, 2014 cuts already signed into law by Obama in 2011. Watching those negotiations should be...
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    Politics - Quarantine Thread

    I disagree. There are a lot of people who want real entitlement cuts in this country so we can stop the out of control debt situation. The only way to force the issue is to create deadlines. In the absence of a deadline, nothing happens in Washington. We can either deal with it now or face the...
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    Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

    There is no chance at all for a long term deal. The only real option on the table is January 15th deadline. They picked that date because the next round of Sequester cuts will start then. At that point the Republicans have even more leverage because in the absence of a new deal, more cuts are...
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    Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

    I think this is all a clear sign that Boehner is running for re-election and wants to be Speaker again for 2015-2016. If he doesn't win something here during this process, he can kiss his political future goodbye. The conservatives in the GOP House will dump him if he surrenders.
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    Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

    +1 That would be a real crisis. - - - Updated - - - I think that is what might actually happen. They will just shorten the timelines to keep the pressure on. Maybe just a 3-6 week debt limit increase and leave the gov't closed.
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    Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

    The Senate plan has no chance on arrival in the House. That is the key message here. If the Speaker brings it up for a vote with a plan of 200 Democrats and 18 Republicans passing it, then Boehner might as well resign now. So Boehner has no choice but to amend the Senate plan and sent it back...
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    Do you carry your Mobile Connector with you when ever you leave the house?

    UMC stays at home, J1772 adapter stays in car.
  48. P

    Supercharger - Springfield, OR - Kruse Way

    Thanks for mentioning that. Now that I look at the map, going over to 101 after Grants Pass might work. There seems to be a few hotels on the coast that have EV recharging. Then it would be an easy drive on day 2 to make it to the San Francisco bay area and Supercharger regions.
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    Supercharger - Springfield, OR - Kruse Way

    I have done 800 miles in one day before (many times to visit parents house), so I think 600 miles for Seattle to Redding CA would be easy in a Model S with a few Supercharger stops in there.
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    Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

    I don't think Obama is foolish enough to refuse to sign a 2-3 week debt ceiling if that is all they can agree on by Wednesday. If Obama refused, then it is all on him with this goes south on Friday/Monday with the government running on only daily tax inflows.