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Government Shutdown/Debt Limit - Issues and Timelines for Investors

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I'm seeing reports there is consideration of a downgrade on the US government's credit rating. If this happens won't we see similar things to 2011 (when the same game of chicken was played)? And this time it's even worse as previously they raised the ceiling two days before the Treasury's deadline, but this time it looks like it'll definitely extend past the deadline.

As it relates to Tesla, it'll be complex given it will come in roughly the same time as Q3 results (which I expect will probably be good).
 
A balanced budget and no more deficit spending.

Actually neither statement is correct. The budget will continue to be the same unbalanced one we currently have, and the deficit will switch from being financed by bond holders to being financed by other creditors (contractors, doctors, hospitals, state and local governments, the military, veterans, Social Security benificiaries, etc).

And it is at the very least amusing that the leading theory for why going past the limit wont be so bad is that we'll continue to pay the bondholders, when the only possible method for doing so appears to require shutting down the same payment systems that generate the paychecks of the IT guys who we will rely on to implement this.
 
Does anyone think that a short term deal won't just lead to another 2-3 months of political insanity and therefore market uncertainty?

There is no chance at all for a long term deal. The only real option on the table is January 15th deadline. They picked that date because the next round of Sequester cuts will start then. At that point the Republicans have even more leverage because in the absence of a new deal, more cuts are already baked into the Budget Control Act of 2011.

Most Republicans would be fine with just letting Sequester cuts keep squeezing more and more each year for the next 9 years.
Obama and the Democrats are the ones that don't want a CR longer than January 15th. They are hoping to stop the Sequester. All leverage tilts to Republicans for the January 15th round. Do nothing and they win.

It is the reverse of the situation earlier this year when the Bush tax cuts were expiring. Back then Obama had leverage. Do nothing and he gets more revenue. So Republicans caved to preserve most tax cuts. Only those above $400,000 got tax increase.
 
IMO if we are gonna see the market tank, we would need some news in addition to this. There will probably be less buying on the dips atm, so the market might fall abit more than usual. However a deal will never be more than 2 days away. And if the market tanks then that itself will create a rumour of a solution. Obviously its hard to tell whats gonna happen to TSLA, SCTY and similar stock, you never know what Mr.Market does.
 
...and this will presumably pass, yes?

CO, can't thank you enough for all your updates. Wondering when you sleep.

Because of my work, I spend a substantial portion of my time working in various newsrooms around the country. The one thing that most of them have in common is late deadlines. And early deadlines. And middle of the day deadlines. And deadlines that change depending on the day of the week.

So the truth is that I spend a lot of time not sleeping when I probably should be.

As to whether it will pass, I think the answer is yes, ultimately. The remaining questions are whether Ted Cruz and/or Mike Lee obstruct the process in the Senate.

If they do not, this can all be done quite quickly. If they do, it stretches out to the weekend.

Then, once it gets to the House, the question becomes whether Boehner actually lets it come to a vote. He has been running scared from the beginning, and keeps getting hustled into bad decisions after privately telling folks he intends to "do the right thing". So now we wait and see whether this cycle will finally break and we get a vote, or else if he lets himself be pressured into doing "something" instead.

- - - Updated - - -

BTW, just a quick addition. If the Senate begins debate and finds itself obstructed, I halfway expect the administration to announce that they have the funds to get through at least the weekend so as to avert any kind of market panic.

The ability of the Obama administration to control the information about the general timing of a default has always been an ace up their sleeve that they could use in crunch time.
 
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Because of my work, I spend a substantial portion of my time working in various newsrooms around the country. The one thing that most of them have in common is late deadlines. And early deadlines. And middle of the day deadlines. And deadlines that change depending on the day of the week.

Totally off topic, but the newsrooms far different to what the quite cool TV series Newsroom portrays? :)
 
A nice article from Politico summing up the current market situation. The market dynamic that is at the center of their story has been active since McConnell got involved and signaled a climb down from the crisis. While real risks exist, it remains highly likely that the process that is ongoing in the Senate is ultimately going to be successful.

Markets expect a deal — they better get one - Ben White and MJ Lee - POLITICO.com
 
Totally off topic, but the newsrooms far different to what the quite cool TV series Newsroom portrays? :)

Newsrooms are boring places. Very quiet and very boring.

Honestly, the only time they ever get interesting is when we miss deadlines while transitioning them to our system. And frankly that doesn't happen nearly as often as it used to back in the 90's when a substantial number of newspapers that I'd visit were still doing paste-up pagination and most of the staff didn't know how to use computers.

I have some hilarious stories of top publishers crying while they pace back and forth next to my desk begging me to get their paper out because "we've never missed a deadline in the last 200 years!!" (Welcome to the 21st century!! Thanks for playing, hope to see you again soon... )

But whatever else they said, what really made them cry and rip their hair out was knowing that every minute they go past their deadline was costing thousands of dollars and creating a progressive snowball effect that costs them megabucks.

And the poor staff would be huddled around in a circle, all of them obviously worrying that the paper was going to be bankrupt any moment now, or else maybe the publisher might just think it was and so would just fire them all on the spot. Good times.
 
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