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According to the news below Q4 sales so far is "higher than expected". The Barclays analyst cut 2014 sales estimate by 10% though. Tesla CEO expects feds to clear Model S in fires - Yahoo Finance Quote: ... ... "Musk also said that Model S sales are higher than expected so far in the...

Agree. this does not seem like a message conveyed after communicating with NHTSA. Previously NHTSA did not like what Tesla said wrt the 5.4 safety rating and who-requested-the-fire-investigation. If I were NHTSA I would not be happy about the news headline "Tesla CEO expects feds to clear Model...

Dave, thanks. Do you have any thoughts on the possibility of the fires actually affecting the demand? In one of the German interviews Elon said the demand dropped a little bit right after the first fire but quickly rebounded and became even higher. I think that was October. Since then there were...

My order was confirmed just 5 days ago and it's still in the "sourcing parts" stage. At least this is not a glitch that affects everyone. Thanks for the info. But what Mario described could still be an indication of constraints being cleared allowing 3rd shift to be added as you suggested? I'm...

my dashboard still says sourcing parts. I confirmed my order just this past Monday 10/28 though. BTW does reservation number give out any useful info? mine is RN659999.

I'm wondering if anyone in Bay area can go to Tesla factory RIGHT NOW and take a quick look at the number of cars in the parking lots. I suppose that can tell us if the there are weekend shifts or night shift. If yes it could also be a reason for the significant jump of cars in production...

I'd like to add my speculation form another angle. We know the guidance vs. actual delivery for the past 2 quarters were as follows: Q1: 4500 vs. 4900 Q2: slightly over 4500 vs. 5150 (also guided 5000 production but some cars would be in transit to Europe for Q3) Guidance for Q3 was...

I don’t really think the ~$100K ASP estimate double-counted ZEV. For example, we know for Q2 the GAAP Auto Sales Revenues are $401,535 and Deferred Revenues due to lease accounting are $146,812. So total non-GAAP Auto Sales Revenues are $401,535 + $146,812 = $548,347. This includes $51,000 ZEV...

I agree. the expected decrease in ZEV credit has huge impact on EPS. It was 51M for Q2 (dropped from 68M for Q1) and zero has been assumed for Q4 in the guidance. It seems not unreasonable for analysts to assume a 25M drop for Q3. In Q2 shareholder letter it was also guided that “While we...

Great to know. I was just told that I could still get S85 this year if I ordered now. I have some concern because I see from the delivery thread that people confirmed at late Sept. are expecting delivery early Dec. this seems to suggest the number of orders placed in Oct. are less than before...

How many have been delivered to Europe so far? I could be wrong but I thought it's ~1000 according to the spreadsheet tracking Europe registration number in Q3. it seems not possible to deliver 4000-6000 to Europe in Q4.

Yes In that guy's weibo account there is EXIF info of that picture and 2013-10-25 13:08:30 was the picture taken time. He did say the tour took place "today" in his weibo "tweet" dated 10/26 (which has to be China time, 15 hours ahead of Tesla local time)

I just found a bigger version of the picture in that guy's weibo (Chinese twitter) account and can confirm that all the numbers in EarlyAdopter's post above are exactly correct. this was taken yesterday, almost 4 weeks after the end of Q3. DaveT's estimate 525/week x 12 weeks = 6300 production...

You're right the lower 303.6M auto sales cost in Q2 is due to lease accounting. total auto sales cost is 427.5M including the cost related to deferred revenues (compared to 461.8M in Q1). If it increases only by 10% to 470M then my calculation of GM ex ZEV is ~21% assuming 6000 delivery/$101K...

Thanks for the nice work helping put things into perspective. I’d like to add my two cents. Personally I don’t feel the ZEV credit revenue is important because it has nothing to do with the future growth rate which is the basis for elevated stock price. Therefore the GAAP profitability might...

I don’t necessarily agree that Model S will be mostly just for so-called ultra-rich in China. It will be much bigger costumer base than that. According to a recent Mckinsey report, quote, “China is also shifting to a new generation of drivers. In addition to the chauffeur-based segment, the...

I agree with you. Do you happen to know how the margin requirement is calculated for selling NTM puts? I suspect it'll be very large so much so that you cannot sell many. So compared to the fund it needs to tie up the percentage of the gain might not be very big. but it seems a very quick way...

Another thing I think we can do to reduce the effect of high IV is playing with bull call spread or bull ladder spread. It could work out better than simply buying expensive calls if you have a strong opinion about the likely price range after ER. For example I know the Q3 ER will be very...

One of my IRA accounts is with TD Ameritrade. It has my option trading level set at "Tier 2 Standard Margin" which seems to be the highest allowed for my account. At this level I cannot sell put either but I'm allowed to trade spread. Yesterday I sold a Nov16th $175 Put, bought a Nov16th $155...

Hi Sleepy, I’m not entirely sure either about the 200+ reservation number I found on that web page, but I really have no reason to doubt it. I found out the guy I called a couple of days ago (Mr. Shen Peng) is actually a sales director of Tesla China. Below is his sina weibo page (twitter-like...

have you considered ladder? you can buy one or more $185-$195 call spread, and sell another OTM call say $200 or $205 to finance the call spread to make it close to zero upfront cost(need to find the proper expiration date). there will be no downside risk at all(excpet that your core position...

Thanks. I'm fairly positive all taxes areincluded. Elon has clearly said in Q2 13 earnings call that TESLAis extremely transparent about the pricing regardless of country/regionand will not try to charge huge mark-up like other manufacturers. Theprice in China will just be the U.S. price +...

Hi I’ve been reading the forum and just signed up to contribute here too. This past weekend I did some very limited research on this topic, and found some useful information about a guy’s recent visit to the Tesla Beijing store posted on a “TESLA” forum on a Chinese Car Enthusiasts website...