Anyone else have any predictions?
I will take a simple stab at it per my below research (a, b, and c) on threads 1 and 2 within this forum cited below
Facts:
5150 cars delivered in Q2
Data Points below could imply Q2 deliveries of (6205 + 6070)/2 = 6137.5
This is 987.5 higher than actual deliveries. 83.9% of 6137.5 = 5150
Applying the same principles above for Q3
Data Points below could imply Q3 deliveries of (7932 + 9066)/2 = 8499
83.9% of 8499 = 7131 reported deliveries for Q3
MY ESTIMATE Q3 DELIVERIES is 7131
(based on above formula using the below data points - 2b below I am least happy with as a data point)
1a)
VINs I see delivered on the last day of Q1 on this thread are 7924 and 8714 (8319 average and will use ths number)
Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing - Page 234
1b)
the highest VIN I saw delivered pre Q2 endng was 14524 from this thread:
Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing - Page 267
1c)
the highest VIN I saw delivered prior 9/27 is 22456 on the same thread
Model S Delivery Dates and Sequencing - Page 307
2a)
Highest VIN I saw delivered pre Q1 ending on this thread is 7845
Model S Delivery Update - Page 479
2b)
Highest VIN I saw delivered pre Q2 ending was on this thread actually the same person as thread #1 with 14524 so I won't use that same datapoint is 1b above. Next highest VIN after June 30th reported on this thread is VIN 15562 but took delivery on July 10th so not using that either as its too far of an outlier. However, the closest VIN delivered just two days prior to end of Q2 is 13915 so will use this data point
Model S Delivery Update - Page 534
2c)
Highest VIN I saw delivered pre Q3 ending on ths same thread is 22981
Model S Delivery Update - Page 590
Important assumptions I have made are:
-same proportion of cars in transit at end of Q3 as prior quarter(s)
-same proportion of VINs produced that are just for showrooms/loaners or skipped during Q3 as prior quarter(s)
Homework for anyone to try and improve this estimate:
Perhaps someone could go a step further and PM the people who reported their deliveries on those threads at the end of each quarter but did not volunteer their VINs. If we could get several more VINs at each of these data points I think it could be a more accurate estimate, excluding the fact that my assumptions noted above could be off.