How many have been delivered to Europe so far? I could be wrong but I thought it's ~1000 according to the spreadsheet tracking Europe registration number in Q3. it seems not possible to deliver 4000-6000 to Europe in Q4.
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How many have been delivered to Europe so far? I could be wrong but I thought it's ~1000 according to the spreadsheet tracking Europe registration number in Q3. it seems not possible to deliver 4000-6000 to Europe in Q4.
Updated analysis
I start with just two assumptions:
1. The production rate data points are correct (Q2 shareholder letter - "almost 500" = 485-499), Aug 20 video of EM and the Chinese tourist pic)
2. Tesla's production rate has never gone down week-on-week in the period from end-July and Oct 25
Then I can with certainty say that the production has been 5756 and 6480. These are my "absurd low" and "absurd high" numbers. They are absurd because the production rate is not gradual - it assumes the theoretical worst and the theoretical best scenarios between the known data points:
In the scenarios above, I have assumed that when EM said that production is "between 500 and 550" on Aug 20, it could be anywhere in that range. For the further analysis, I am assuming that if it were between 500 and 510 he would say "approx. 500" and that if it were between 540 and 550 he would say "approx. 550". Therefore I will narrow that range to 510-540. Here are the "realistic" scenarios:
As you can see, I have assumed different scenarios for how production increase happened over the intervals as well (exponential, linear and square root, respectively).
This gives the following production estimates:
Low: 5,921
Middle: 6,051
High: 6,225
The great fit of the linear middle scenario gives me strong confidence in it.Now the question is what the difference between production and deliveries is. Based on the extremely low deliveries reported in October in Europe, I would not 100% rule out that there was no increase in cars in transit to Europe. We have to assume some increase in show room cars (if not loaners), so let's say 50 for that. This means that the most optimistic realistic scenario is that we have to subtract 50 cars from production figures to get deliveries.
On the other hand, there were some deliveries in Europe and could be quite a bit more than the anecdotal evidence gives an impression of. I would say that it would not be unrealistic to assume an increase in cars-in-transit of 300-400. For loaners and show room cars, those could possibly have increased by as much as 100-150. In total, let's say that the maximum adjustment is 500.
Based on my gut feel, I will say that the "middle" scenario is towards the low end of the range - so 150 cars.
This gives the following scenario matrix for deliveries:
The bottom line: I am going to go with an estimate of 5,900 cars delivered. Furthermore, there is more of a downside than an upside to this figure, as the table above shows. 6,200 would be very surprising - I think the only way that could happen is if Elon was sandbagging in the August 20 video. However, that seems unlikely, since the Aug 20 data fits well with the two other data points.
Discussion of conflicting data:
I think VIN based analysis is fatally flawed by some assumptions that are completely baseless (either "proportional" or "the pipepline is filled up"). I think the huge discrepancy between the VIN data and these pretty firm data points, clearly the VIN data must be discarded.
On the other hand, the registration numbers collected by Maekuz still provides significantly higher estimates than the figures above. We have not been able to get any information on the original source of that data, so we cannot know if it is reliable or not. While this data reduces my certainty about my estimates above, I will not disregard solid data based on data of unknown quality.
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Updated Q3 P&L projection:
Note about the projections: The uncertainty about ZEV credits and R&D expenses makes these projections highly uncertain. My range for non-GAAP EPS is $0.16-0.38.
I start with just two assumptions:
1. The production rate data points are correct (Q2 shareholder letter - "almost 500" = 485-499), Aug 20 video of EM and the Chinese tourist pic)
2. Tesla's production rate has never gone down week-on-week in the period from end-July and Oct 25
Then I can with certainty say that the production has been 5756 and 6480. These are my "absurd low" and "absurd high" numbers. They are absurd because the production rate is not gradual - it assumes the theoretical worst and the theoretical best scenarios between the known data points:
In the scenarios above, I have assumed that when EM said that production is "between 500 and 550" on Aug 20, it could be anywhere in that range. For the further analysis, I am assuming that if it were between 500 and 510 he would say "approx. 500" and that if it were between 540 and 550 he would say "approx. 550". Therefore I will narrow that range to 510-540. Here are the "realistic" scenarios:
As you can see, I have assumed different scenarios for how production increase happened over the intervals as well (exponential, linear and square root, respectively).
This gives the following production estimates:
Low: 5,921
Middle: 6,051
High: 6,225
The great fit of the linear middle scenario gives me strong confidence in it.Now the question is what the difference between production and deliveries is. Based on the extremely low deliveries reported in October in Europe, I would not 100% rule out that there was no increase in cars in transit to Europe. We have to assume some increase in show room cars (if not loaners), so let's say 50 for that. This means that the most optimistic realistic scenario is that we have to subtract 50 cars from production figures to get deliveries.
On the other hand, there were some deliveries in Europe and could be quite a bit more than the anecdotal evidence gives an impression of. I would say that it would not be unrealistic to assume an increase in cars-in-transit of 300-400. For loaners and show room cars, those could possibly have increased by as much as 100-150. In total, let's say that the maximum adjustment is 500.
Based on my gut feel, I will say that the "middle" scenario is towards the low end of the range - so 150 cars.
This gives the following scenario matrix for deliveries:
| Low production | Middle production | High production | |
| Low correction | 5,871 | 6,001 | 6,175 |
| Middle correction | 5,771 | 5,901 | 6,075 |
| High correction | 5,421 | 5,551 | 5,725 |
The bottom line: I am going to go with an estimate of 5,900 cars delivered. Furthermore, there is more of a downside than an upside to this figure, as the table above shows. 6,200 would be very surprising - I think the only way that could happen is if Elon was sandbagging in the August 20 video. However, that seems unlikely, since the Aug 20 data fits well with the two other data points.
Discussion of conflicting data:
I think VIN based analysis is fatally flawed by some assumptions that are completely baseless (either "proportional" or "the pipepline is filled up"). I think the huge discrepancy between the VIN data and these pretty firm data points, clearly the VIN data must be discarded.
On the other hand, the registration numbers collected by Maekuz still provides significantly higher estimates than the figures above. We have not been able to get any information on the original source of that data, so we cannot know if it is reliable or not. While this data reduces my certainty about my estimates above, I will not disregard solid data based on data of unknown quality.
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Updated Q3 P&L projection:
| Cars and CARB credits | 5900 cars x $101k ASP | 595 900 |
| ZEV credits | Guesstimate | 25 000 |
| Development services | Guesstimate | 1 000 |
| Total revenues | 621 900 | |
| Gross profit | 21% GM ex. ZEV | 150 349 |
| R&D expenses | 55 000 | |
| Selling, G&A expenses | 60 000 | |
| Net income (non-GAAP) | 35 349 | |
| Net income/share (non-GAAP) | 0.29 | |
| Revenues (non-GAAP) | 621 900 | |
| Deferred due to lease accounting | 137 000 | |
| Revenues (GAAP) | 484 900 | |
| Net income (non-GAAP) | 35 349 | |
| Deferred profit | 27 000 | |
| Stock based comp | 22 000 | |
| Non-cash interest on convertibles) | 1 800 | |
| Net Income (loss) (GAAP) | -15 451 | |
| EPS (GAAP) | -0.13 |
Note about the projections: The uncertainty about ZEV credits and R&D expenses makes these projections highly uncertain. My range for non-GAAP EPS is $0.16-0.38.
ModelS8794
Member
Do we have any confidence on work days in the quarter? The Chinese pic indicated open slots for Saturday and Sunday work, so there are likely at least some weekend shifts occurring. Whether the quarter is 60 or 85 days, or somewhere in between, remains an open question IMO.
That is a great point. I have assumed 5 working days a week and observance of public holidays. (Very useful working days calculator here).
While the existence of slots for Sat and Sun does not prove that there has been weekend work, we cannot dismiss that possibility. Every Saturday or Sunday worked would add 100+ cars to both production and deliveries.
Does anyone have any data on this issue?
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
They were working weekends when first getting the line up and running. To the best of my knowledge, Saturdays and Sundays have not been production days for a very long time. Not to say they couldn't use those days, but 1) you can't work people like that, and 2) you need some down time to perform equipment maintenance or you'll quickly have other problems.
There have been no recent reports (in last six months or so) of production running during Saturday or Sunday factory tours, so that would support a five day work week.
There have been no recent reports (in last six months or so) of production running during Saturday or Sunday factory tours, so that would support a five day work week.
Citizen-T
Active Member
In my mind there is no doubt that the factory puts in extra hours toward the end of the quarter. We have seen spikes in deliveries at the end of every quarter. I would imagine they justify this by giving the factory off the first week of the next quarter. This isn't a wash as the manufacturing team needs that down time to make changes to the line anyway.
In other words, I'd assume at least 2 but perhaps as many as 4 or 5 extra days of production in the quarter (be they from working late or from working weekends). I don't think that your typical factory line worker gets 4+ weeks of vacation a year. It makes sense to me that those hours are being made up elsewhere.
In other words, I'd assume at least 2 but perhaps as many as 4 or 5 extra days of production in the quarter (be they from working late or from working weekends). I don't think that your typical factory line worker gets 4+ weeks of vacation a year. It makes sense to me that those hours are being made up elsewhere.
It doesn't seem that way to me. His first diagram leaves out one day at the beginning, probably 4 July. Looking at my calendar, Q3'13 was 13 work weeks plus one day (30 Sept). First week (including 4 July) was off-line, factory re-tooled for Europe etc. One Monday was a holiday, I think (Labor Day). So that leaves exactly 12*5 or 60 days if no production on weekends. Which we don't know.
Otherwise Don Pedro's analysis looks, well, analytical ;-)
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That also makes sense to me.
But, dear Citizen, this is sort of spooky, in the season of ghosts and ghoulies:
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
The San Juan Capistrano permit has taken forever and a day. I don't think this is TMs fault at fault. I believe permitting is typically the bottleneck in many places. As we know, once they break ground it takes a couple weeks. That's it.
Wow, lots of inputs.
I don't think deliveries in the high 5Ks vs mid 6Ks will make a difference anymore on market reaction. Various articles have been out on these numbers and Q3 is likely already priced into TSLA. I think the market will dance to current production capacity (Q4 guidance), and High Level 2014 guidance on production goals and/or sales goals with some breakdown on the major markets. Hope Elon brings it home with some WOW numbers.
(current production capacity is based on 7 days a week- otherwise Sat & Sun wouldn't have shown up in that screen pic. All major auto companies have 7 day production for certain plants, some even all 3 shifts. There's a fine balance in trying to produce too many cars in a shift (quality control) vs spreading it out over shifts/days).
I don't think deliveries in the high 5Ks vs mid 6Ks will make a difference anymore on market reaction. Various articles have been out on these numbers and Q3 is likely already priced into TSLA. I think the market will dance to current production capacity (Q4 guidance), and High Level 2014 guidance on production goals and/or sales goals with some breakdown on the major markets. Hope Elon brings it home with some WOW numbers.
(current production capacity is based on 7 days a week- otherwise Sat & Sun wouldn't have shown up in that screen pic. All major auto companies have 7 day production for certain plants, some even all 3 shifts. There's a fine balance in trying to produce too many cars in a shift (quality control) vs spreading it out over shifts/days).
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Yes. I did not want to make the writeup too busy, so I didn't explain the numbering. Day 0 in the charts is June 30, and day 1 is July 8 (the first working day at the factory in Q3).
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Yes, I arrived at the same number. Used the working days calculator for the period from Jul 8 to Sep 30 to arrive at it.
They can achieve 25% gross margin at 75% shift rate because they're aiming for over 30% gross margin in the near future IMO (see Elon Musk CEO incentive plan 2012 where stock options are given if they reach at least 30% gross margins for 4 consecutive quarters).
European shipments were pushed back (originally they planned to ship cars Q2). It's evident that they shipped almost no cars to Europe during Q2 (see Maekuz' registration spreadsheet to see almost no European registrations in month of July). I don't see any way Tesla can reach 5000 European deliveries in 2013. I think it will be more around 3500-4000 max.
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DonPedro - I think you're being a bit optimistic in your adjustment numbers.
It's pretty evident that Tesla didn't ship any cars to Europe at the end of Q2. Thus we had Q2 production at 5450 and deliveries at 5150. However, at end of Q3, it is evident that they had cars in transit to Europe. In the EU thread, there are some people in Germany, Sweden, etc. that have received their cars in mid-October, meaning that their cars were in transit at end of Q3. Further, there's an article stating that Norway had 40-50 registrations in October (I think during the first 3 weeks, so it's probably more). I think it's reasonable to say that Tesla had 200-500 cars in transit to Europe at the end of Q3. I think anything less than that is very, very optimistic.
Also, Tesla opened new stores and service centers in Q3 and they need to send cars to those places. Further, Jerome did mention that he would have more cars a service loaners. So, I think we need to apply around 200 cars going to service centers and stores.
I'm also applying an additional 100 cars in transit to U.S./Canada to my estimates, but this is up to debate.
ModelS8794
Member
This seems right but is directly conflicted by the Chinese weibo pic, which shows a 570 weekly target and 113 daily target.
Has a community consensus been agreed to in regard to share price movement as a result of q3 earnings? If not community, what's your personal opinion?
I see a lot of discussion about deliveries, revenues, margin, etc. but not too much about share price movement. Thanks in advance.
I see a lot of discussion about deliveries, revenues, margin, etc. but not too much about share price movement. Thanks in advance.
I am open to that criticism. My current thinking is as follows: Even though cars-in-transit were low after Q2, it was very clearly non-zero (based on reports in June of people seeing lines of cars marked for the EU, and of people seeing their cars in production on MyTesla). This "feels like" ~100-150 cars. So that is my starting point.
By late October, there were around 60 registrations in Norway. There days, it seems to me that Norway accounts for half of EU deliveries (which is also consistent with your estimate of 3500-4000 deliveries in EU, as the Norwegian country manager is on record estimating 2000 in Norway). So 60 in Norway and 60 elsewhere gives around 120. Then there are many deliveries later where I wonder whether they were produced in Q2 or Q3. So the number could be 120 or it could be much higher. To form a hypothesis about that, a first data point (although weak) was that I heard zero reports in early-to-mid October of people seeing their cars in production on MyTesla. However, what really convinced me was the following logic:
1. The deliveries dropped extremely in October
2. There is only one possible explanation: Tesla intentionally minimized the cars-in-transit
3. If this was what they did, they must have wanted to have that figure as low as possible
4. If they wanted it as low as possible, there is no reason why the figure wouldn't be 120. Why would they do this, but do it half-assed?
In any case, I think a number higher than 400-450 would be hard to reconcile with the complete standstill to which deliveries came in October. So while I tend towards a very low adjustment for cars-in-transit, I feel the real range is something like 0-300 (with both extremes feeling "not right").
Assuming they opened 20ish new locations (is this ballpark?), five cars at each would mean a 100 car adjustment. Whether they increased the stock of loaners or not is anyone's guess. I thought they would, but then I also thought they wouldn't game the quarter by pulling down EU deliveries (which they obviously did). If they are so keen to inflate numbers, would they prioritize more loaners? Assuming they did, the figure could indeed be the 200 total that you propose. I honestly don't know.
To qualify for an adjustment, this figure would need to be a net increase in the number of cars in transit to North American destinations. Why would there be such an increase? Actually, we might have a decrease here, since EU deliveries may have slightly reduced the NA volume.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
At the one year anniversary of the San Diego store, today, the manager (Peter) said that the San Juan Capistrano supercharger should open in the next couple of weeks, and that the delay is due to permits and was out of Tesla's control.
just an random thought.
EU car's finish work is happening in the Netherlands. Can we confirm just how much work is being done there? Are they just slapping the battery in and shipping the car out or are they doing more?
Hypothetically, if its more work then would that help speed up production even more since a % of the work is being done else where. So ramping only ~75 cars a week production through the quarter would not be as large of an accomplishment.
Even more hypothetical, what if that 570 run rate does not include cars being finished in the EU factory. Obviously this would be way off on a limb. However, the only way i can see this as possible is if the VIN data actually is correct because your talking about alot of cars. (also the great work done here shows registrations in the US not large enough to make up the gap from ~6000 cars to ~8000 for this crazy idea to be true)
i know those last hypos were tin foil hat suggestions. But i would like to get confirmation just how much is being done at the EU plant. thanks.
EU car's finish work is happening in the Netherlands. Can we confirm just how much work is being done there? Are they just slapping the battery in and shipping the car out or are they doing more?
Hypothetically, if its more work then would that help speed up production even more since a % of the work is being done else where. So ramping only ~75 cars a week production through the quarter would not be as large of an accomplishment.
Even more hypothetical, what if that 570 run rate does not include cars being finished in the EU factory. Obviously this would be way off on a limb. However, the only way i can see this as possible is if the VIN data actually is correct because your talking about alot of cars. (also the great work done here shows registrations in the US not large enough to make up the gap from ~6000 cars to ~8000 for this crazy idea to be true)
i know those last hypos were tin foil hat suggestions. But i would like to get confirmation just how much is being done at the EU plant. thanks.
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