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  1. SBenson

    Wiki Tracking FSD Feature Complete

    This is going to be the cover page of Businessweek next edition
  2. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Bernstein has been snapshoting price trends in US. Apparently these are so called list prices without addons, without doc fee from the website.
  3. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Terminal is at Revenues: 6.35B Only 7 out of 23 updated since p&d report Net Income (non-gaap): -72mil Net Income (GAAP): -211mil
  4. SBenson

    Wiki Tesla Europe Registration Stats

    wow that is something! You are one and only one person I have a bookmark for and I never miss a single post you make. IMHO you are one among the very few informed rational bulls that is left on this platform. What a shame
  5. SBenson

    Wiki Tracking FSD Feature Complete

    @neroden Would love to hear your opinions on this Karpathy presentation: Andrej Karpathy | Multi-Task Learning in the Wilderness IIRC your stance was that Tesla didn't even know what the scope of the problems were or begin to understand them... Does this video change (improve) your opinion...
  6. SBenson

    SolarCity Bailout Analysis

    Interesting snippet from Adam Jonas' institutional-client call: ** I'll bring you back to SolarCity, remember when SolarCity was announced, people were up in arms. They were like "This the bailout!! No one's going to accept this. All the Page One shareholders of Tesla will unite in revolt and...
  7. SBenson

    Elon's biggest strengths and weaknesses

    Elon's biggest strengths are... >> lands rockets Elon's biggest weakness are... >> none (see above)
  8. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Yes, correct. Then the issue for shareholders is - why run the firm the way it was run? We were all looking at MUCH higher sp by now, weren't we? I have long argued for a cap raise all the way from when the module making issues were revealed. I was just disappointed that they didn't all this...
  9. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    There is some progress. Tesla filed a shelf registration to offer common stock and debt securities without disclosing amounts of either. EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001193125-19-133592
  10. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    This will be my last post on this cash topic, and then I will hold my peace! There are several posts in response to my posts. I am only responding to @DaveT (to conserve bandwidth and also) because we started off the discussion on the same basis. That mid Q1 went through cash crisis and mid Q2...
  11. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Well I go back to the same question. You yourself has said “Tesla's cash situation was probably dire mid-quarter Q1”. We have seen all sorts of couch shaking to know that was true. Backing out from end of qtr numbers also show that mid quarter things were “dire”. SO, why did Tesla not raise...
  12. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    That indeed is a very good question. Let me flip that around and ask this: So why exactly did Tesla not raise capital in Q1 or even better in 2018? Tesla raised capital every single year - except 2018! Here is summary, including Equity and Debt, but NOT any secured debt or loans, for TSLA and...
  13. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    In my opinion Tesla is effectively bankrupt. The only reason it hasn't declared one is that the suppliers are holding it up. As many have pointed out elsewhere, the Accounts Payable is usually delayed by a quarter. The sequential revenue drop is quite steep. If AP scaled normally, Cash would be...
  14. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    YES! I will also add, @luvb2b delivery estimates prior to the delivery report was also very close.
  15. SBenson

    Elon's tweets about Tesla

    Musk last night reiterated some 500K production number. Stock down a tad today. In essence market doesn't give a hoot to any of Musk's proclamations anymore. He lost his sway. He might as well stop and focus more on gaining credibility, than making grandiose projections.
  16. SBenson

    Elon's tweets about Tesla

    Related opinion Warren Buffett: Tesla's Elon Musk has 'room for improvement' as CEO
  17. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Leasing and especially the way it came out is quite interesting. Looking for input from informed folks in this space (just tagging a few names I know @schonelucht @luvb2b @brian45011 ) Income Statement: So my understanding is due to the recent rule changes, Tesla can book the full price as...
  18. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Wonder how the next quarter will be?
  19. SBenson

    Elon's tweets about Tesla

    Mods: Can you please edit the title of the thread to add "POLL:" in the beginning?
  20. SBenson

    Elon's tweets about Tesla

    Please feel free to make your points in the thread. But please make crisp clear statements to hopefully minimize the discussion/argument.
  21. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Thanks for the update. When you say net loss, is that gaap or non-gaap? In the past few quarters there is a difference of about 200mil between the two. And when you say cash burn are you talking about - OCF or - FCF or - Net Change in Cash or - Net Change in Cash excluding the convertible...
  22. SBenson

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How do we know these are not all vehicles produced (as opposed to only delivered)? As this seem to be the go to tool to find info about any car, I would think this includes all cars, including the ones in inventory and transit. If that were the case, it seems to imply only 66K produced cars...
  23. SBenson

    Ordered! MYP

    Does everyone here understand that the $2.5K is just for the privilege of ordering the car. It is NOT counted towards the price of the car, which you would have to pay in full up on delivery. This is what the fine print says: "Your Pre-Order Payment covers the cost of these activities and...
  24. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Anyone put together a model for Q1/Q2 with the latest pricing in mind?
  25. SBenson

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I interpret it as the former. That very roughly works out to negative $3.5K gross margin. That is inline with a company wide email that Musk sent a few months ago in which he said SR would cost 38.5K to build. The email was screenshot somewhere in Asia and was circulated on various twitter...
  26. SBenson

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    On an annualized basis TSLA's return translates to 3.31% by the way. I bet most fans have performed way worse than that, given active trading and especially options.
  27. SBenson

    Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)

    Given that this is a Long Term thread it might be a good idea to reflect back how Tesla long term results have fared. Here are the 5 year return for Tesla along with broad based alternatives: Total Return includes dividend (reinvestments). Not only have the alternatives done better but...
  28. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Btw, I asked that question before the news hit the wire. I would have guessed 15-20K before they got rid of 75. Now with apparently no new replacement planned and no refresh planned, I would be surprised if they sell 15K.
  29. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    @luvb2b thrilled to see you. In the past we had a brief back and forth on S/X, in post tax-credit step down world. What are your current views on the topic? If you were to put a model together for Q1, what would you do for S/X? I find the removal of 75kWh models particularly disconcerting.
  30. SBenson

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Always value your take on things. I agree with the interpretation of "need the SR to sell the volume to fill the line"... However, I find it particularly puzzling that Tesla chose to remove 75kWh models for S and X. Do they not need them to sell the volume to fill the line? What's their...
  31. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Here is what happened: Tesla website all along said the car has all the hardware needed to turn on FSD. Only pending items are software validation and regulatory approvals. We all know that is bogus nonsense. When NVDA originally released the chips, there were two kinds. NVDA said a minimum of...
  32. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    We are talking about COGS savings at the cell level. These are mass purchased gigafactory cells... My very rough guess is that the MR is ~ 3K hit to the bottomline (assuming constant sales vs prior assumption). Btw, White upgrade is now 1K vs earlier 1.5K and PAWD seems to be lowered 1K as...
  33. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Tesla launches new Model 3 with ‘mid-range’ battery for $45,000, changes pricing structure So this bolsters the short thesis that order book ran out at end of Q3. I expected some form of demand levers to be pulled. But this seems a bit drastic as it lowers the entry price by $4K. Also, FSD is...
  34. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    From a cursory look the baseline bear thesis seems to be a) Q4 order flow will be weak, as the reservation book dried out. If not q4, it's q1. b) Tesla hasn't raised money despite doing heroic maneuvers in cash management - signals that it CAN'T raise money c) SP trending down to <253 makes...
  35. SBenson

    Blind Faith Price Targets

    Given that this thread is "blind faith" - that ultimately everything will be resolved favorably and the ultimate goal will be met - I have this chart to present. Just a disclaimer first: personally I don't subscribe to nor endorse the idea of 'blind faith', just putting this here as an...
  36. SBenson

    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Burning man is gonna burn out
  37. SBenson

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Calm down people. Just a minor glitch in the simulation. Typos will be fixed in the next version.
  38. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Numbers look FANTASTIC! Puzzled why the sp is not taking off... Market numbed-out by the hysteria over last few months?
  39. SBenson

    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    A critical post at this point would be a pile-on. So I am hesitat the do this but still doing it because I think it's relavent and timely. The fundamental reason I invested multiple years in a row, no less "all in", was because I was hugely impressed with Elon back in 2013/14. I watched every...
  40. SBenson

    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Per ER, Tesla is entering a phase of perpetual profitability and cashflow positiveness. Shorts would be continually grinded as stock will continue to tear up... So why exactly is Musk concerned about shorts?
  41. SBenson

    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Full blog post at Musings on Markets: The Privatization of Tesla: Stray Tweet or Game Changing News
  42. SBenson

    Articles/megaposts by DaveT

    Aswath Damodaran on Twitter
  43. SBenson

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    Thanks Brian... I was wondering under which section that language was in. But the docs look pretty straightforward. Now I am pretty convinced, market is overlooking this and the liquidity question is much more overblown than necessary.
  44. SBenson

    TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

    From what I am seeing the language is applicable in case of a fundamental change - as in a full cash takeover of the firm. Will send a screengrab to both of you. I am no expert just would like you guys to take a closer look.
  45. SBenson

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    @luvb2b Can't wait to see your update ;)
  46. SBenson

    200,000th US Delivery

    Very insightful post. Thank you very much! Have a question for you. Adam Jonas still believes that 5K/wk may not be attained until tail end of the year. I see that he is an auto analyst. I suspect that he would have toured and learnt plenty about auto making plants over his career. So to me...
  47. SBenson

    First quarter 2018 deliveries

    Dude, the poll is for deliveries.
  48. SBenson

    First quarter 2018 deliveries

    What @schonelucht said!
  49. SBenson

    Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

    I would love to end the conversation but the message would be lost prematurely. This is the last post from me. Promise. hobbes raises a number of important points here and I appreciate it, because it gives me an opportunity to explain things in a deeper, more meaningful way. First and...