Near-future quarterly financial projections

[palmer_md]

I'm not sure if I just overlook it on all these discussions, but in my view one of the reasons for the lack of profit in the coming quarters is all the expenses related to starting construction on the new Gigafactory in china. The start of a project like this is very capital intensive as they not only have the site construction costs, but they also have to place orders for all the equipment that goes into the building and progress payments on this equipment as it gets built throughout the construction time. This huge capital project is likely why they are not going to have much profit in the short term, but once it is complete they will have much better numbers.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm not sure if I just overlook it on all these discussions, but in my view one of the reasons for the lack of profit in the coming quarters is all the expenses related to starting construction on the new Gigafactory in china. The start of a project like this is very capital intensive as they not only have the site construction costs, but they also have to place orders for all the equipment that goes into the building and progress payments on this equipment as it gets built throughout the construction time. This huge capital project is likely why they are not going to have much profit in the short term, but once it is complete they will have much better numbers.

You are mixing cash flow and income statements. Capital expenditure (capex) affects cash flow, but rarely income/profit this early in the construction

 

[heltok]

Thanks for the model. Numbers look reasonable to me. Lowering the prices $2k might seem strange short term, but long term they improve competiveness and it’s long term that profits will happen(FSD, HW3, EAP, TN and TE).

 

[gringotuanis]

I'm not sure if I just overlook it on all these discussions, but in my view one of the reasons for the lack of profit in the coming quarters is all the expenses related to starting construction on the new Gigafactory in china. The start of a project like this is very capital intensive as they not only have the site construction costs, but they also have to place orders for all the equipment that goes into the building and progress payments on this equipment as it gets built throughout the construction time. This huge capital project is likely why they are not going to have much profit in the short term, but once it is complete they will have much better numbers.

Capital expenditure does not affect an income statement so this is incorrect. Capex affects the balance sheet as it's considered investing into an asset I think according to GAAP. So no effect on "profits"

 

[gringotuanis]

When do quaterlies/year end come out for Tesla?

Jan 30 after hours is the announced date.

 

[gringotuanis]

Currently listed as Feb 6, but dates can change.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report

Tesla investor relations already released the news last Friday, it is scheduled for Wednesday Jan 30 after hours.

 

[bkp_duke]

Tesla investor relations already released the news last Friday, it is scheduled for Wednesday Jan 30 after hours.

Obviously. See my post date. The info I gave out was a best guess BEFORE they made their announcement.

 

[gringotuanis]

I'm actually really suspicious of Elon's note to employees, because it's full of vague words like "tiny" and "small" and "less", which are really non-specific. Perhaps this is partly a way of resetting expectations. After the messed-up expectations scam which was run last quarter, I would probably want to do this. Give lots of vague number-free warnings, and then the numbers (I would expect Q4 *slightly* less than Q3 due to no ZEV credits, lower ASP; Q1 *noticeably* less than that due to product tied up in transit on ships and no GHG credits) don't look like "shocking misses".

S&P addition might be as late as August/September, though.

I agree this was very vague and he said unaudited. He also sent a weird tweet the day before about how AI can bluff better than humans. I think this might be a setup to burn shorts...

 

[gringotuanis]

Obviously. See my post date. The info I gave out was a best guess BEFORE they made their announcement.

Ah sorry. I'm used to the other thread which is much more active as I was only 1 page back I thought it was posted today

 

[luvb2b]

sorry i've been very out of touch lately. i haven't spent nearly as much time on tesla as i did in the past, and as i mentioned before tesla had taken up too much of my time and treasure to warrant a continued overcommitment.

here's an update of my model, taking into account q4 guidance in elon's letter. my basic methodology for forecasting earnings has remained the same. post elon's letter, i am disappointed with what must be a flattening gross margin trajectory on the model 3, particularly considering the higher end nature of the configurations.

the best highlight is what i would expect to be ~2b in cash flow from operations. my apologies for any glaring errors i have missed - again with much less time in much less quality should be expected out.

edit: still don't know how to get rid of the extra whitespace.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] Sep-18 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]13,500[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]14,050[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 27,550 [/TD2][TD2] 27,710 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 63,150 [/TD2][TD2] 56,065 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.09 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.80 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.78 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,550,028[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,523,770[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]201,737[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,375,535 [/TD2][TD2] 6,098,766 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]157,500[/TD2][TD2]105,317[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]205,200[/TD2][TD2]294,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,038,235 [/TD2][TD2] 6,824,413 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,801,159[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,755,588[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]125,077[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,681,824 [/TD2][TD2] 4,525,202 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]166,950[/TD2][TD2]124,754[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]143,640[/TD2][TD2]205,800[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,378,414 [/TD2][TD2] 5,300,748 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,659,821 [/TD2][TD2] 1,523,665 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]32.5%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]25.4%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]-6.0%[/TD2][TD2]-18.5%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,200,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,106,908 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 459,821 [/TD2][TD2] 416,757 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-122,000[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 278,821 [/TD2][TD2] 271,320 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 258,822 [/TD2][TD2] 254,673 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 308,823 [/TD2][TD2] 311,516 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.69 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]308,823[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]2,08,000[/TD2][TD2]2,04,728[/TD2][TD2]1,97,344[/TD2][TD2]1,41,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]516,823[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.82 [/TD2][TD2] 2.90 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2]4,094,576[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]925,576[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]2,947,076[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]379,455[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 8,496,682 [/TD2][TD2] 7,920,491 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,255,022[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,298,522[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,777,601[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]3,20,000[/TD2][TD2]2,91,476[/TD2][TD2]3,00,406[/TD2][TD2]3,46,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]65,226[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]415,897[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 30,297,084 [/TD2][TD2] 29,262,713 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]3,654,374[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,217,464[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]541,205[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 9,478,043 [/TD2][TD2] 9,775,324 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]96,00,000[/TD2][TD2]96,69,879[/TD2][TD2]95,10,696[/TD2][TD2]87,61,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,634[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]789,258[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,300,000[/TD2][TD2]2,555,319[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 23,819,920 [/TD2][TD2] 23,409,144 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,037,164 [/TD2][TD2] 4,508,838 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]258,822[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]494,659[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]2,08,000[/TD2][TD2]2,04,728[/TD2][TD2]1,97,344[/TD2][TD2]1,41,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]33,141[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]77,737[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]229,425[/TD2][TD2]-585,127[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]298,166[/TD2][TD2]106,426[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]234,759[/TD2][TD2]691,607[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]59,162[/TD2][TD2]-36,291[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,981,135 [/TD2][TD2] 1,391,281 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -560,965 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]114,942[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]-195,760[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]44,294[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] -84,218 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 1,127,072 [/TD2][TD2] 739,728 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 4,094,576 [/TD2][TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

 

[Fact Checking]

sorry i've been very out of touch lately. i haven't spent nearly as much time on tesla as i did in the past, and as i mentioned before tesla had taken up too much of my time and treasure to warrant a continued overcommitment.

here's an update of my model, taking into account q4 guidance in elon's letter. my basic methodology for forecasting earnings has remained the same. post elon's letter, i am disappointed with what must be a flattening gross margin trajectory on the model 3, particularly considering the higher end nature of the configurations.

the best highlight is what i would expect to be ~2b in cash flow from operations. my apologies for any glaring errors i have missed - again with much less time in much less quality should be expected out.

edit: still don't know how to get rid of the extra whitespace.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] Sep-18 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]13,500[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]14,050[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 27,550 [/TD2][TD2] 27,710 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 63,150 [/TD2][TD2] 56,065 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.09 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.80 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.78 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,550,028[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,523,770[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]201,737[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,375,535 [/TD2][TD2] 6,098,766 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]157,500[/TD2][TD2]105,317[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]205,200[/TD2][TD2]294,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,038,235 [/TD2][TD2] 6,824,413 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,801,159[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,755,588[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]125,077[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,681,824 [/TD2][TD2] 4,525,202 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]166,950[/TD2][TD2]124,754[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]143,640[/TD2][TD2]205,800[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,378,414 [/TD2][TD2] 5,300,748 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,659,821 [/TD2][TD2] 1,523,665 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]32.5%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]25.4%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]-6.0%[/TD2][TD2]-18.5%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,200,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,106,908 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 459,821 [/TD2][TD2] 416,757 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-122,000[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 278,821 [/TD2][TD2] 271,320 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 258,822 [/TD2][TD2] 254,673 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 308,823 [/TD2][TD2] 311,516 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.69 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]308,823[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]2,08,000[/TD2][TD2]2,04,728[/TD2][TD2]1,97,344[/TD2][TD2]1,41,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]516,823[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.82 [/TD2][TD2] 2.90 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2]4,094,576[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]925,576[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]2,947,076[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]379,455[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 8,496,682 [/TD2][TD2] 7,920,491 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,255,022[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,298,522[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,777,601[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]3,20,000[/TD2][TD2]2,91,476[/TD2][TD2]3,00,406[/TD2][TD2]3,46,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]65,226[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]415,897[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 30,297,084 [/TD2][TD2] 29,262,713 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]3,654,374[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,217,464[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]541,205[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 9,478,043 [/TD2][TD2] 9,775,324 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]96,00,000[/TD2][TD2]96,69,879[/TD2][TD2]95,10,696[/TD2][TD2]87,61,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,634[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]789,258[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,300,000[/TD2][TD2]2,555,319[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 23,819,920 [/TD2][TD2] 23,409,144 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,037,164 [/TD2][TD2] 4,508,838 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]258,822[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]494,659[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]2,08,000[/TD2][TD2]2,04,728[/TD2][TD2]1,97,344[/TD2][TD2]1,41,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]33,141[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]77,737[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]229,425[/TD2][TD2]-585,127[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]298,166[/TD2][TD2]106,426[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]234,759[/TD2][TD2]691,607[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]59,162[/TD2][TD2]-36,291[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,981,135 [/TD2][TD2] 1,391,281 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -560,965 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]114,942[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]-195,760[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]44,294[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] -84,218 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 1,127,072 [/TD2][TD2] 739,728 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 4,094,576 [/TD2][TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

Thanks for the update, much appreciated!

One detail I noticed: Q4 Model 3 ASP is $55.80k in your estimate, versus $56.78k in Q3 - basically just a $1k ASP reduction.

Considering that:

• There were a lot of Medium Range deliveries, with the lowest entry price of $44k, shouldn't it be lower? We know MR deliveries from the many non-AWD US VINs registered: ~60% of the Q4 VINs are non-AWD, ~40% were AWD.
• See: Model 3 VINs
• At the end of the quarter Elon gave "hundreds" of Tesla employees a special discount if they enrolled in the FSD beta-testing program: $5k off the price and EAP and FSD free of charge. This too should reduce Q4 ASP a bit if these were booked as hundreds of $39k sales.
• Edit: the Performance price was reduced in Q4, and Q3 Performance customers got a $5k refund.

I.e. I think there's a significant chance that Q4 ASP is $2k-$5k lower than Q3 ASP.

At 20% gross margin every $1k in ASP reduction reduced gross profits and cash flow by about $13m - i.e. at $5k ASP reduction the effect would be about -$52m less than your estimate: ~$257m GAAP profit.

Unless I'm missing something.

 

[Fact Checking]

Another small detail: in your Q4 model accounts receivable goes from $1,155m in Q3 to $925m in Q4.

There might be a wildcard here: since Q4 ended on a Monday they might have been able to reduce receivables closer to the historic Q4'2016 and Q4'2017 baseline of ~$500m.

Considering the Model 3 ramp-up being US only in Q4, cash/check/wire clearing times might have been T+1 in most cases - i.e. they would only miss the last day's payments.

I.e. an at most a +$100m increase over Q4'2017?

That could boost cash by another +$300m?

 

[Fact Checking]

A final minor note is Q4 payables expansion:

• Q2: $3,030m
• Q3: $3,596m
  
• Q4: $3,654m (est. @luvb2b)

So this is something you overestimated in Q3, but isn't a 2% expansion too small?

An additional wildcard is that there is robust anecdotal evidence that Tesla ramped up Q4 Model 3 production to 6k/week units in late November, and sustained it through late December.

Since average payables are around 60 days, much of Q4's output still benefited from the payables expansion. I.e. I think a payables expansion of about 10% could easily have happened.

A ballpark estimate is one I performed with @ReflexFunds's numbers:

Near-future quarterly financial projections​

That would be a +$240m cash boost from payables.

 

[luvb2b]

i agree with all your conjectures. there is upside to cash generation in receivables and payables. my asp may be too high for reasons you cited as well.

A final minor note is Q4 payables expansion:

• Q2: $3,030m
• Q3: $3,596m
  
• Q4: $3,654m (est. @luvb2b)

So this is something you overestimated in Q3, but isn't a 2% expansion too small?

An additional wildcard is that there is robust anecdotal evidence that Tesla ramped up Q4 Model 3 production to 6k/week units in late November, and sustained it through late December.

Since average payables are around 60 days, much of Q4's output still benefited from the payables expansion. I.e. I think a payables expansion of about 10% could easily have happened.

A ballpark estimate is one I performed with @ReflexFunds's numbers:

Near-future quarterly financial projections​

That would be a +$240m cash boost from payables.

 

[SteveG3]

sorry i've been very out of touch lately. i haven't spent nearly as much time on tesla as i did in the past, and as i mentioned before tesla had taken up too much of my time and treasure to warrant a continued overcommitment.

here's an update of my model, taking into account q4 guidance in elon's letter. my basic methodology for forecasting earnings has remained the same. post elon's letter, i am disappointed with what must be a flattening gross margin trajectory on the model 3, particularly considering the higher end nature of the configurations.

the best highlight is what i would expect to be ~2b in cash flow from operations. my apologies for any glaring errors i have missed - again with much less time in much less quality should be expected out.

edit: still don't know how to get rid of the extra whitespace.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] Sep-18 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]13,500[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]14,050[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 27,550 [/TD2][TD2] 27,710 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 63,150 [/TD2][TD2] 56,065 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2][TD2] 9,766 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.09 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 104.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.80 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2][TD2] 105.42 [/TD2] [TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.78 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2][TD2] 56.80 [/TD2] [TD2]2,550,028[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2][TD2]2,046,829[/TD2] [TD2]3,523,770[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2][TD2]464,738[/TD2] [TD2]201,737[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,375,535 [/TD2][TD2] 6,098,766 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]157,500[/TD2][TD2]105,317[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]205,200[/TD2][TD2]294,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,038,235 [/TD2][TD2] 6,824,413 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,801,159[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2][TD2]1,517,446[/TD2] [TD2]2,755,588[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2][TD2]573,951[/TD2] [TD2]125,077[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,681,824 [/TD2][TD2] 4,525,202 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]166,950[/TD2][TD2]124,754[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]143,640[/TD2][TD2]205,800[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,378,414 [/TD2][TD2] 5,300,748 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,659,821 [/TD2][TD2] 1,523,665 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]32.5%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2][TD2]26.9%[/TD2] [TD2]21.8%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2][TD2]-23.5%[/TD2] [TD2]25.4%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]-6.0%[/TD2][TD2]-18.5%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]645,000[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,200,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,106,908 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 459,821 [/TD2][TD2] 416,757 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-122,000[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 278,821 [/TD2][TD2] 271,320 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 258,822 [/TD2][TD2] 254,673 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 308,823 [/TD2][TD2] 311,516 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.69 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]308,823[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]2,08,000[/TD2][TD2]2,04,728[/TD2][TD2]1,97,344[/TD2][TD2]1,41,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]516,823[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.82 [/TD2][TD2] 2.90 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2]4,094,576[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]925,576[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]2,947,076[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]379,455[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 8,496,682 [/TD2][TD2] 7,920,491 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,255,022[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,298,522[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]11,777,601[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]3,20,000[/TD2][TD2]2,91,476[/TD2][TD2]3,00,406[/TD2][TD2]3,46,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]65,226[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]415,897[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 30,297,084 [/TD2][TD2] 29,262,713 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]3,654,374[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]2,217,464[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]541,205[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 9,478,043 [/TD2][TD2] 9,775,324 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]96,00,000[/TD2][TD2]96,69,879[/TD2][TD2]95,10,696[/TD2][TD2]87,61,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,634[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]789,258[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]3,300,000[/TD2][TD2]2,555,319[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 23,819,920 [/TD2][TD2] 23,409,144 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]540,000[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,037,164 [/TD2][TD2] 4,508,838 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]258,822[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]494,659[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]2,08,000[/TD2][TD2]2,04,728[/TD2][TD2]1,97,344[/TD2][TD2]1,41,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]33,141[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]77,737[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]229,425[/TD2][TD2]-585,127[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]298,166[/TD2][TD2]106,426[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]234,759[/TD2][TD2]691,607[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]59,162[/TD2][TD2]-36,291[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,981,135 [/TD2][TD2] 1,391,281 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -760,000 [/TD2][TD2] -560,965 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]114,942[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]-195,760[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]44,294[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] -84,218 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 1,127,072 [/TD2][TD2] 739,728 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 4,094,576 [/TD2][TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

Greatly appreciate your posting this here.

The EPS part is fairly straightforward for any of us to see your assumptions and weigh them with our own view.

As to the cash flow number, there are several lines with a $200 million or more variance vs. prior quarter. I'm wondering if you could share with us for such items a rough +/- range for each such Q4 estimate that you have high confidence in (ie, something like, "accounts receivable, $229,425K, about 90% confidence actual will be within $X of this estimate) and/or a little discussion of the line item and the basis for your seeing this scale of variance vs. Q3. You've already contributed a great deal with this chart, and I can well understand if you do not have more time to do any of the suggestions above.

 

[luvb2b]

error correction: someone pointed out that some of my numbers have commas formatted badly. not sure how this happened as it appears correct when i copied out of the spreadsheet. so lines like lt debt+leases should be 9,600,000 not 96,00,000. sorry about that.

i would caution anyone who is trying to get overly accurate with cash flow as there are a number of levers they can pull or not pull to move it one way or another. discretionary choices by tesla could push it hundreds of millions in either direction.

the key drivers of cash flow from operations are:

1. cash from sales: model 3 and s/x cash gross margins are quite good. in my estimation both are well north of 30%. those are a huge positive contributor but one that can be reasonably guessed.

2. inventory drawdown should also play into cash generation as in-transits ran down - however, "in-transit" is not the same as inventory. if they ended up with cars they could not sell then inventory may not have changed so much. so hard to guess either way. i assume a draw to the lowest days inventory outstanding in several years due to the tax credit pull, but this could end up too aggressive.

3. accounts receivable: these bumped up by 500m in q3. they *should* come down in q4 resulting in cash generation. i use a days-sales-outstanding model to guess at accounts receivable. i've modeled the lowest dso seen sep-15 for q4. i'm uncomfortable to take a bigger drawdown, but acknowledge it is possible.

4. accounts payable: paying suppliers more slowly can put more cash on the books too. but tesla in q3 paid suppliers at the fastest rate seen in years. if they choose to reduce payment speed they can show a lot more cash, but i have no particular reason to guess increase or decrease so i have modeled days payable outstanding to be consistent with q3.

i offer no accuracy on any specific line item. instead i hope that the aggregate of my errors ends up at something small enough to the bottom line cash figure to make the model useful.

you should also keep in mind that items that shift favorably this quarter can reverse the next and result in lower cash flow. this often happens to companies that try to game cash flow for one quarter. come companies game it over multiple quarters and then the final shift can be sudden and large. from what i saw last quarter, i don't think tesla was gaming cash in any way.

Greatly appreciate your posting this here.

The EPS part is fairly straightforward for any of us to see your assumptions and weigh them with our own view.

As to the cash flow number, there are several lines with a $200 million or more variance vs. prior quarter. I'm wondering if you could share with us for such items a rough +/- range for each such Q4 estimate that you have high confidence in (ie, something like, "accounts receivable, $229,425K, about 90% confidence actual will be within $X of this estimate) and/or a little discussion of the line item and the basis for your seeing this scale of variance vs. Q3. You've already contributed a great deal with this chart, and I can well understand if you do not have more time to do any of the suggestions above.

 

[kbM3]

Thanks for the update, much appreciated!

One detail I noticed: Q4 Model 3 ASP is $55.80k in your estimate, versus $56.78k in Q3 - basically just a $1k ASP reduction.

Considering that:

• There were a lot of Medium Range deliveries, with the lowest entry price of $44k, shouldn't it be lower? We know MR deliveries from the many non-AWD US VINs registered: ~60% of the Q4 VINs are non-AWD, ~40% were AWD.
• See: Model 3 VINs
• At the end of the quarter Elon gave "hundreds" of Tesla employees a special discount if they enrolled in the FSD beta-testing program: $5k off the price and EAP and FSD free of charge. This too should reduce Q4 ASP a bit if these were booked as hundreds of $39k sales.
• Edit: the Performance price was reduced in Q4, and Q3 Performance customers got a $5k refund.

I.e. I think there's a significant chance that Q4 ASP is $2k-$5k lower than Q3 ASP.

At 20% gross margin every $1k in ASP reduction reduced gross profits and cash flow by about $13m - i.e. at $5k ASP reduction the effect would be about -$52m less than your estimate: ~$257m GAAP profit.

Unless I'm missing something.

MR base price was $46k in q4.

 

[SBenson]

@luvb2b thrilled to see you.

In the past we had a brief back and forth on S/X, in post tax-credit step down world. What are your current views on the topic?

If you were to put a model together for Q1, what would you do for S/X?

I find the removal of 75kWh models particularly disconcerting.

 

[luvb2b]

all the incentive expirations i have seen in automotive have a big step down.

s/x units declined year over year with a huge pull forward in demand due to the tax credit. they also declined quarter-over-quarter despite the tax credit boost.

there's also reduced demand in china, some from the tariffs which will reverse and some from economic weakness. there's also reduced demand (my guess) from some waiting for the taycan.

i would expect a meaningful drop in s/x units from q4 to q1. 15-20k range is my guess backed by all intuition plus literally zero facts. once some inside-ev's and european data is showing up then we can estimate more clearly.

@luvb2b thrilled to see you.

In the past we had a brief back and forth on S/X, in post tax-credit step down world. What are your current views on the topic?

If you were to put a model together for Q1, what would you do for S/X?

I find the removal of 75kWh models particularly disconcerting.

 

[SBenson]

all the incentive expirations i have seen in automotive have a big step down.

s/x units declined year over year with a huge pull forward in demand due to the tax credit. they also declined quarter-over-quarter despite the tax credit boost.

there's also reduced demand in china, some from the tariffs which will reverse and some from economic weakness. there's also reduced demand (my guess) from some waiting for the taycan.

i would expect a meaningful drop in s/x units from q4 to q1. 15-20k range is my guess backed by all intuition plus literally zero facts. once some inside-ev's and european data is showing up then we can estimate more clearly.

Btw, I asked that question before the news hit the wire.

I would have guessed 15-20K before they got rid of 75.

Now with apparently no new replacement planned and no refresh planned, I would be surprised if they sell 15K.