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  1. siry

    Infiniti LE

    I agree with David - they blew it by sticking with 24 kWh. One would think they have enough real world experience with the Leaf to recognize the limitations. They also blew it with the styling. It looks very similar to a Hyundai Elantra. I assume the grill is not production intent. Infiniti had...
  2. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    I think the spikes on high volume *have* to be certain funds exiting short positions that they entered into in the 20s. The thing that puzzles me is that the aggregate short interest keeps increasing. I think someone earlier posited that it could be old shorts exiting and new shorts entering at...
  3. siry

    Karma -vs- Model S

    I'd be interested in the transmission gear ratios. That would tell the story.
  4. siry

    Karma -vs- Model S

    I don't understand why people go with DC permanent magnet motors and not AC Induction. The whole problem here is DC PM has very high torque but low max RPM. Low max RPM means they have to use a very tall gear to achieve a certain top speed (say 100mph or whatever). As a result even with these...
  5. siry

    Karma -vs- Model S

    Yes, Tommy is right - I am comparing it to the engineering/design of the Model S chassis, and particularly the integration of the motor/PEM/gearbox and rear suspension, which is outrageously cool. So Lotus has nothing to do with that.
  6. siry

    Karma -vs- Model S

    That thing looks massive. I always wondered how they managed 5000 pounds curb weight. The switch to iron phosphate was probably a big part of it but the architecture of the car just looks very massive and clunky in contrast to the Tesla.
  7. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    Ah - very good point.
  8. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    I think the whole episode was handled in a way that is consistent with how Tesla managed things in the past (and will likely handle them in the future.) Tesla has always taken a pretty aggressive stance when challenged by press or by journalists, and this wasn't the first time they have punched...
  9. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    Steph, Apple's price/sales is 3.8. Their Operating margin is 33.8%! (Tesla hopes to get mid-teens). They sell high-margin gadgets that are made relatively cheaply in china and even higher margin software and music. They are an extraordinary anomaly that of course many companies try to compare...
  10. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    The things that are "priced in" by sell side analysts in their price targets are pretty significant - July start, flawless ramp up and selling out of 20,000 model S and 10-15,000 Model X every year they are in production, and maintaining 25% gross margins. Bluestar in 2014 (or 15 depending on...
  11. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    An out and out delay (like the Roadster in 2007) would certainly be very bad but that isn't as likely as a slower than planned ramp up, which would only really be obvious after 3Q earnings (although it will be evident on these boards before then!)
  12. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    Im confused by the short interest numbers. If there was any time where a "squeeze" would have happened it would have been in the last month as the company solidified its footing. I am very surprised that the short interest is still in the 24M range as most of those folks are heavily underwater...
  13. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    Based on my quick read, here are the interesting "between the lines" things I noted: 1) $30MM Capex that was anticipated in 4Q slipped to Q1 based on when deliveries are expected for capital equipment. This might indicate a delay (Note they reiterated Job 1 in July) 2) Supporting the above...
  14. siry

    Are you also investing in Tesla?

    I don't think the short interest is generally tied to whether they will deliver the model S or not. Almost everyone assumes that's the case (as they should). The typical short is betting that Tesla cannot be profitable at volume. They differ in opinion as to whether it is primarily a gross...
  15. siry

    BMW Active E

    Hi all, question - does the Active E only come in white with the silly circuit bard decals?
  16. siry

    Fisker Karma

    Wow that's the first time I have heard the Karma engine noise. Not good. When they first announced their specs, I questioned why they would spec a 2.0 liter turbo as part of their genset. I have a 2 liter turbo in my EVO and it makes an extraordinary racket at high revs and that is with a...
  17. siry

    Zenn highway car powered by EEstor

    @vfx its a shame because it would truly change everything, but alas that is the basis of most cons. And honestly I think that Clifford at ZENN was just ignorant and once he was committed he really couldn't gracefully back out. I don't think he meant to deceive anyone at first.
  18. siry

    Zenn highway car powered by EEstor

    @vfx my personal view is that it just doesn't fit the profile of well meaning scientists working hard to make something happen. The obfuscation and nonsense over 6 years fits a pattern that would imply that it is categorically not going to succeed. Therefore the p variable in your expected value...
  19. siry

    Zenn highway car powered by EEstor

    Whatever profits their share of EEstor generates would belong to common shareholders, so it all depends on how much he owns or has vested. It's beside the point anyway, because there will be no such profit generated. This thing was so obviously shady way back in 2006 its amazing to me that it...
  20. siry

    Zenn highway car powered by EEstor

    Obviously I am not surprised by this, but it was fun to go back and read my article(s) on Eestor & ZENN. I'm not always right with my prognostications but this one was pretty easy to call a long time ago.
  21. siry

    Roadster on Top Gear

    @Jaff - Because no manufacturer has any power to forbid anyone from reviewing their product once it is owned by another private party. All they can do is not help the process by directly furnishing a car to them. Consumer Reports routinely reviews and thrashes (or praises) cars with no...
  22. siry

    Roadster on Top Gear

    They'll borrow from an owner or buy a used one and resell it. Before the cars were in production they could tightly control access but those days are gone.
  23. siry

    Roadster on Top Gear

    Ha ha! Very true...
  24. siry

    Roadster on Top Gear

    The problem with this strategy is Tesla can win the battle but not the war when it comes to Top Gear. Even if they force a retraction (i.e. stop distributing the original show or edit it) you can be absolutely sure that TG will do a new show in the near future "testing" a roadster in a "factual"...
  25. siry

    Coda Automotive (formerly Miles Automotive Group)

    @EVNow - The chemistry is irrelevant to the issue of what range to expect given a certain driving speed. The chemistry is relevant to cycle life, charging, and safety factors etc. My point about Nissan applies to all electric vehicles. If you quote the LA4 range people are going to be sorely...
  26. siry

    Comparison: 2010 Tesla Roadster Sport vs 2011 Porsche Boxster

    problem with using A123 cells is that you get half the range at the same weight off the bat. Make the pack half the size and now you are talking about 25% of the range. Its a tough sell to have a 60 mile car at close to $100K (Assuming a 13kWh A123 pack at $700/kWh) Note that a 13 kWh A123...
  27. siry

    Comparison: 2010 Tesla Roadster Sport vs 2011 Porsche Boxster

    Tesla handling fundamentals Here is my advice based on experience with the Roadster and track driving in general: In comparing the Tesla Roadster or Roadster Sport to other sports cars there are some basic fundamentals that define the handling characteristics of the Tesla that trace their...
  28. siry

    Zenn highway car powered by EEstor

    Secretive Startup EEStor Worth More Than $1.5 Billion My new article on Wired.com is about EEStor.
  29. siry

    Zenn highway car powered by EEstor

    my article for wired tomorrow will be about Eestor...again
  30. siry

    Siry Resigns

    @vfx - I'm actually working on something like that, but I'm not sure what it will evolve to.
  31. siry

    Siry Resigns

    The ABG header makes it sound like my full time job :) I'm going to be doing a "weekly" column, which should run on Tuesdays. If anyone wants to suggest story ideas feel free to hit me up on twitter (@djsiry) Darryl
  32. siry

    Jay Leno Green Race track

    This thing would actually be cool if it were a Tesla at a proper track but I have to believe it is "pay for play" and Ford is paying the Jay Leno Show nicely for the privilege. Seriously - a fake track out back the studio in a car that is front wheel drive is not going to make for any exciting...
  33. siry

    Sport vs. Non-Sport the same motor?

    @ra-san and @rickkae (caveat: my info may be outdated so you should definitely get answers directly from Tesla, but I still try to be helpful on this board when I can since I get a lot of value from it for all things EV) I think it has more to do with the relatively tall gearing of the single...
  34. siry

    Sport vs. Non-Sport the same motor?

    @dpeilow - with gas motors, especially turbos, its a bit different. My 2.0 turbo does about 284hp stock running about 18 lbs of boost. Basically more fuel and more air gets more horsepower. The tradeoff is fuel mileage (and to an extent driveability and reliability). That same engine, same...
  35. siry

    Roadster sales - Tesla business model profitable?

    re: mercedes dealerships It isn't as straightforward as it sounds. Mercedes doesn't own the dealerships - they are independent businesses with franchise agreements. Tesla is an independent manufacturer, so even if they wanted to distribute through dealerships (which they don't) they would need...
  36. siry

    Quantifying the Volt MPG

    I asked somebody from GM today about the EPA MPG approach. I said "OK, but then by that that logic any EV would get infinite MPG?" and he/she said "Yeah." I'm waiting to see how long before the Tesla website says "Infinite MPG", or if past is prologue, it will say "higher than infinite MPG"
  37. siry

    Tesla SVP of Global Sales, Michael van der Sande, resigns

    @trisurf2001 - that occurred before Michael was on board, but aired afterward.
  38. siry

    Siry Resigns

    @Picasso the lawsuits had nothing to do with it. That was just a false story leaked to valleywag, probably by an ex-employee who was angry about how things were handled in Jan 2008. For starters, the status of all those legal proceedings can be seen on the San Mateo Superior Court website. But...
  39. siry

    Martin Eberhard sues Elon Musk and Tesla Motors

    @rogerred here's my explanation: "CMO" has 3 letters. "SVP Global Sales, Marketing and Service" has 33 letters and is very unwieldy. If CMO were somehow a bigger role than my actual role, you might have something, but its not. And in any case, I agree with James. Who cares?
  40. siry

    Martin Eberhard sues Elon Musk and Tesla Motors

    Re: the idea for using commodity li-ion cells for the t-zero - I researched that point when I wrote the piece for Wired and ACP sources told me directly that it was their idea and that they had already been experimenting with li-ion commodity cells. They said Martin's investment helped them...
  41. siry

    Martin Eberhard sues Elon Musk and Tesla Motors

    Guys, I think your missing my point and taking the headline too literally. In the second paragraph I set up the premise that I don't think the important thing being fought over is who technically founded the company (obviously that is Martin and Marc), but rather the role people will play in the...
  42. siry

    Roadster -vs- Elise SC

    European auto mags do not allow a 12" "let out" like american car mags (except Automobile Magazine). The 0-60 times typically quoted by american mags do not start the timer until after the car has traveled 12". This typically accounts for a .2 or .3 second difference in 0-60 (Automobile Magazine...
  43. siry

    Lexus LS 600hL battery capacity

    Anybody know the capacity of the NiMH pack used in the LS600hL? Yes I know it is a silly car and a prime example of greenwash gone wild, but a colleague of mine is trying to track down this piece of data. I'd appreciate any help.
  44. siry

    Fisker Karma

    @AnOutsider - for starters, all aluminum chassis and body = expensive, battery tech = expensive. You also need to take into account global distribution costs. For a premium car, the price point is about right.
  45. siry

    The problem with EV range figures

    I just write this blog and it is already generating some interesting discussion - please join the fun. Darryl Siry's Blog: The Problem with EV Range Figures
  46. siry

    Ford Focus EV = Model S competition ???!???

    In the absence of a mid-range market offering from Ford, or for that matter Nissan, Model S would pull a lot of those buyers up-market. If there are EV sedans on the market for around $40K then they will impinge on the market for the low-end Model S, which we can assume will be around $65K at...
  47. siry

    Vauxhall (GM) Trixx

    this was one of my predictions earlier this year, although the other predictions aren't doing so well so far. Darryl Siry's Blog: What will 2009 bring for EVs?
  48. siry

    Model S - Batteries still liquid cooled?

    good luck fitting a pack of LiPO4 cells big enough to go 200+ miles in a car! They just don't have the energy density so the pack is too big.
  49. siry

    Model S - Batteries still liquid cooled?

    Basically if it is a Lithium Cobalt Oxide cell in an automotive application it needs to be liquid cooled. That's (part of) the price you pay for long range.
  50. siry

    Zenn highway car powered by EEstor

    I blogged on this. I welcome your comments. Darryl Siry's Blog: ZENN and the art of EESTOR hype maintenance