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It's fine that you don't find it convincing. You question the timing of the downgrade and the changes over the last few months. This shows a lack of understanding on your part of the process of rating bonds and ignoring what the original rating was based on. The previous rating was issued at...

The thing is that it is hard to argue against the need for some cash later this year, since it is Moody's questioning the cash position, not just some random "hedge fund manager" who manages his own 401k. There is a lot of hyperbole coming from those corners, but the need for a cash raise isn't...

Call me crazy, but that joke was just dumb. The best case for TSA right now is that there is a capital raise imminent, which would soothe the fears brought up in the Moody's downgrade. If they are working on getting institutional support for an equity sale, such silliness is not a good idea.

From the standpoint of pure curiosity and just following the story, I agree with you. As an indicator to help make an investment decision, it's not even worth considering. It is plausible, but not actionable, at least in my opinion.

I'm not accusing Tesla of anything, and I'm sure it isn't random, but as has been discussed at length earlier, there was a similar abrupt increase in VIN registrations at the end of Q4, which many took to indicate a big production jump at the end of 2017. I don't attempt to explain why, just...

I would quibble a bit with the reliance on VIN registrations. As others have noted, they must increase for production to increase, but they have proven to be a very unreliable indicator in the past of changes in production rate. Time will tell. to directly answer your question, yes, it...

1500/week is roughly 2x improvement over last quarter, but the rate of growth appears to be linear, and the 2x is only there because the base number from q4 was so low. As such, at the current growth rate 5k/week is much farther off than 1-1.5 quarters. Especially when considering the 5k/week...

There is no doubt the bearish euphoria on SA is wildly over ambitious. However, to call this "much better times than at any point int Tesla history" is also a bit optimistic, in my very, very humble opinion. From about midway through the X launch until I'd say August of last year, I ready...

Very good response, and yes, for an ideal scenario, you were off by about 3. The other factor of 3 comes from the other factors that go into making a practical, usable installation, not just theory. First, the roof will not be covered, corner to corner with panels, all inclined to the...

The problem is that this isn't necessarily true. Even if you back out all R&D, the company would still post an operating loss. Given the current (much improved but still relatively high) average waits for service, the service network is certainly not oversized for the S and X fleet, so there...

Given that people have come to expect less than perfect performance, I think if they are 3k per week by the end of Q1, people will start to settle down. If it is that rate or higher at the end of Q2, things will still be OK if the GM goes positive. That's just my two cents. I don't really know.

Ah, the familiar "rate" vs. actual production volume debate. I think it was actual production, but who knows. What does VA think it is referring to?

This is a truly shocking post. I have been reading on here for 4 years from literally every bull on this site, that the S and X don't matter, because it is all about the 3. And they said that because they were right. Not caring about the Model 3 ramp might be hazardous to your wealth.

Really? Do you recall the mountains of scorn that were heaped on Adam Jonas on this forum when the former darling analyst of TMC announced a piddling few thousand M3s before end of 2017? I am very curious how confident you are they will deliver 500k next year. Do you really think they will...

Jack knife is caused by losing traction on the tractor portion, usually from either a slick road, extreme steering/braking trying to avoid something, or impact in a wreck. Independent control of the drive wheels could certainly help, but if you lose traction because you are going sideways, you...

How can one understand the all-in cost for Tesla, when we don't know the price, and Tesla can't possibly know what their 1 million mile warranty is going to cost them, nor do we know what the electricity is going to cost them?

I fully understand the need for the backup, but unfortunately, I can't give that in this case. Just rest assured that you won't be finding anyone refuting it with solid information, at least not unless Tesla changes their plans. If anyone chooses to ignore my number due to lack of sourcing, I...

I understand that to be true, which is why they didn't announce the weight. The 20k lbs is the spec they are "expecting". The design is not done yet, so they don't really know for sure yet. They just used the 20k lbs as their design basis, and that's what the acceleration specs are based on.

The sleeper model

Your math is grossly wrong, by about 10x. You might want to recalculate.

For those who have been wondering, even though Tesla didn't announce it, the weight of the truck is planned by Tesla to be 20,000 lbs.

I have to reiterate that the cost of solar at wholesale does not equate to Tesla being able to provide it on demand 24hrs per day at a customer location. Yes, grid scale plants can sell into the grid when they are producing for 6c or less, while making a profit. When the sun goes down, this...

Good information, but I think it proves my point. At a wholesale level, solar is available for close to what Tesla is saying they will sell it for. That is not a delivered price to the point of consumption, and is not 24hr/day available solar power. That's what they well it for when the panels...

You did notice that this chart "assumes" 10% YOY price reduction? There is something they say about what happens when you assume.

The 7c electricity is I think the main weak link in the Tesla semi story. The economics only make sense at below market rates for the power. Keep in mind that these sub 2c solar tariffs are not necessarily all in costs. The governments/utilities in Saudi and Mexico are contributing to the...

Any chance you could share your math to come up with 50% GM on the semi and 40B of GM on it?

It is exactly the same. Not enough actual specifications. Freight essentially comes down to 3 main variables: Cost of energy per mile - Check, just less than 2kwh/mile Capital cost - No response, big problem Tare weight - No response, big problem Seriously good score on the Roadster though...

You may end up being right, but so far, it has been closer to what I predicted. Big jump as the Tesla bulls got so excited about the reveal, and then back to reality that this story is still built on the 3. It could go back up in a big way, but I'm not surprised by the early jump and then...

And I'd like to see the calculation of how they can guarantee they can produce it for that, especially as on demand power. Maybe they will get there, but it's a prediction, and where will the locations be, how many of them, etc? It looks good as an advertisement to get the conversation...

The problem is we aren't shown the actual TCO calculation, only Tesla's answer, with some unknown assumptions, and known ones that don't reflect current reality (7c electricity). I am confident that large orders will not be placed based on just that. Placeholders, yes, but bulk orders, heck no.

I have NO idea what the stock will do today, but I wouldn't count too much on pre-market moves reflecting how the day goes. We've all seen big premarket moves up drop like a rock when regular market volume starts to kick in. I'm certainly not saying it will, but it could.

I'll be the first to admit I don't get Elon speak much of the time. I can't tell when he's saying something just for effect or being serious. I guess I haven't spent enough time on the Left Coast.

Totally not important, but the whole nuclear attack thing just seems silly. Last I checked, the temperatures encountered in a nuclear detonation are high enough to vaporize glass. Cheyenne Mountain, with thousands of feet of solid granite can't withstand a modern high yield nuclear device, but...

As near as I can tell, the only confirmed order is the Meijer one, and that is for FOUR trucks. I'm sure there are others, but I would expect them to also be small, placeholder bets more for PR than business. The bottom line is that there were not enough specs released to justify an actual...

Honestly, the new Roadster seems to be a really cool car, and I have no doubt it will sell, as people with money to burn will buy the fastest production 1/4 mile time ever. And I have no doubt the margins will be fat. I am having a harder time grasping the unbridled optimism about the truck...

OK, so are they lying in their solar city sales literature that bases the benefits on constantly rising electricity costs? Also, you haven't factored in the cost of those very large wind turbines or solar panels. Those aren't free, I don't think.

Two very important questions: 1. Out of that 80k lb GVW, how much is payload? 2. Where the heck is the 7c juice coming from? Guaranteed? So Tesla is going to subsidize this with their cash flow from where? Curious what the market will think of this. 1 million mile guarantees and guaranteed...

So where is this 7c electricity going to come from?

So I get the range at max GVW. So what is the payload capacity at that range?

OK, just one more note, couldn't resist this one. Seriously? I do read the other areas on the site. The 29 iterations of the drive train, as well as the various other components that had HORRIBLE failure rates are not evidence of an effective strategy. Good effort.

I have too much to do today to continue to point out what has been proven time and again, but I'll put out one more long post on this whole vertical integration thing. Bottom line, it has proven to not work, over, and over, and over again. Tesla is doing a lot of things right, and has some...

So, so true.

I agree whole heartedly. More companies of more sizes from more places make for better outcomes. I never said Tesla couldn't be competitive, and certainly have never said SpaceX couldn't be competitive. Government and especially defense contractors are the most inefficient monstrosities on the...

I'm sure it could work out that way. However, I think the main thing I would point out is that those cost saving changes are going to be made by the supplier, because if they don't, the competition will, and you lose the contract. True, not always, but when an opportunity presents itself to...

As before, I don't disagree. The reason the issue came up was my original comment on someone else's explanation about why M3 was going to sell so well. In it they compared similarly appointed 3 vs. others, with the others having a higher price. The response to my question was that Tesla would...

Truer words have not been said.

I don't disagree with anything you say in principle. The facts remain the same. Change creates risk for a vertically integrated company too. Change costs money for a vertically integrated company too. The difference is that competitors have economic motivation to do those things that is...

Thanks for your mercy. I didn't claim to know all companies. Only that I know a principle that applies regardless of the industry. I also know that selling things for less than they cost loses money. In all industries. Still not omniscient, just stating the obvious.

You might look up omniscient. Or I can save you the time. Understanding that more than one of something has more power than one of those things will not be found in the definition. I can guarantee that too, and still won't be omniscient.

I take no offense to your believing what you do. And yes, for all components, in all industries, many minds will do better than one. I guarantee it.