2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[electracity]

In the days following the model 3 reveal, we got some updates on the number of reservations. Will we get the same for the semi/roadster? Personally I would expect the Founder roadsters series to be sold out soonish. Would be a great moment to update us on the number of deposits received for all products.

Hopefully only from the balance sheet. The downside risk is greater than the small benefit of bragging about orders. But if the founders roadster sells out the order form would presumably change to a waiting list for that product.

The Tesla Semi is all about execution and where the capital comes from to get to full production. If they can make the truck they described they can sell all they can make.

 

[Starno]

How many M3 do you think Tesla has already produced by now ?
I'd say around 1100.

 

[Ichabod]

The area required for 1.5-2 MW solar array is about 10 000 sq meters (~110 000 sq feet). Many Walmart distribution centers have rooftop area that is 10x of what is needed for 1.5-2 MW solar. I believe most of Walmart stores/locations have a rooftop area for at least 1.5-2 MW solar.

I believe commercial/utility solar LCOE is in the range 5 to 10 cents per kWh NOW and declining, so you don't have to be Tesla to guarantee 7 cents per kWh energy cost in 2 years (4 years Tesla time). Adding storage would likely only improve economics.

Many distribution centers (and maybe stores) have space to produce more energy than they actually consume, so adding both an EV fleet and solar would likely not only improve the economics of transportation but also result in better energy savings than they would otherwise have.

As for the solar/storage deployment costs, sure it is capital intensive, but I think it would be relatively low or reasonable to overall cost of distribution center/store. I think Tesla doesn't really intend to push energy selling part of the electric truck deployment, "7 cents per kWh guarantee" is just a marketing thing that states what should be obvious.

edit: Consequently, Tesla doesn't have to finance solar electrification part of the electric trucking, and I don't think they will (since markups and margins are likely to be very low). Storage - yes, but this is another thing that is being sold faster than can be produced.

Good information, but I think it proves my point. At a wholesale level, solar is available for close to what Tesla is saying they will sell it for. That is not a delivered price to the point of consumption, and is not 24hr/day available solar power. That's what they well it for when the panels are operating. For the other 18 hours per day, your buying the same stuff as everyone else, which is why the average rate in the US is more like 11c.

 

[DurandalAI]

You did notice that this chart "assumes" 10% YOY price reduction?

There is something they say about what happens when you assume.

If anything, I would think the prices fall faster than 10% YOY. Certainly solar itself without storage is already under $0.07/kWh. In late 2019 I expect that Tesla could sell power at 7c/KWh and at least break even if not make a profit. Even if the first installations only break even, subsequent installations will be cheaper as time passes.
Solar now costs 6¢ per kilowatt-hour, beating government goal by 3 years

 

[RobStark]

Koenigsegg seems to be doing well with a 3000 lbs vehicle, which just this month broke the speed and 0-400-0 record.

You can also drive a Kawasaki Ninja H2R at those speeds. It can be done. Since I rather not be an organ donor, I will take the Roadster 2.0

 

[Ichabod]

If anything, I would think the prices fall faster than 10% YOY. Certainly solar itself without storage is already under $0.07/kWh. In late 2019 I expect that Tesla could sell power at 7c/KWh and at least break even if not make a profit. Even if the first installations only break even, subsequent installations will be cheaper as time passes.
Solar now costs 6¢ per kilowatt-hour, beating government goal by 3 years

I have to reiterate that the cost of solar at wholesale does not equate to Tesla being able to provide it on demand 24hrs per day at a customer location. Yes, grid scale plants can sell into the grid when they are producing for 6c or less, while making a profit. When the sun goes down, this electricity is no longer on the market. You have to buy the dirty stuff, at the market rate. If you add batteries, the price goes up massively. Hence the price Tesla is charging on Kauai is 13.9c. I assume they are making a decent profit on that, but doubtful they are doubling their money. If they had that much margin, they probably would have been able to win the next award that went to AES.

 

[hobbes]

Another chance after Tesla withdrew the 3 this year: Tesla Model 3: 2018 Motor Trend Car of the Year Finalist - Motor Trend

RECOMMENDED FUEL 110-volt, 220-volt electricity

Goes twice as fast if charged with 220V electricity, right??

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - minutes ago: Tesla’s biggest news last week was not the truck, says this fund manager

Most significantly, Tesla mentioned “hypercharging,” which would recharge a Tesla Semi in half an hour in locations yet to be disclosed.

“I’d have to imagine that Tesla has figured out how to put this technology on all of their cars, which means every car could get a full charge in under 30 minutes,” Kramer wrote in a blog post.

Additionally, it is “genius” that Tesla could use solar energy to power future “hyper” charging stations, he said.

 

[JRP3]

I’d have to imagine that Tesla has figured out how to put this technology on all of their cars, which means every car could get a full charge in under 30 minutes,” Kramer wrote in a blog post.

I think he misinterpreted what was said. I believe it was a partial charge in 30 minutes, which is already possible.

 

[Buddyroe]

I think he misinterpreted what was said. I believe it was a partial charge in 30 minutes, which is already possible.

That's true, 80% in 30 mins. But, that's 80% of probably around a 500 kwh battery. So, a charging capacity of 4 times the size of a 100 kwh battery in 30 mins. In theory, that same power should be able to supply 80% to a 100 kwh battery in 6 minutes. So, in the Model S, we're talking about ~ 268 miles in about 6 minutes. That would be HUGE!

 

[JRP3]

It's not the power delivery that's limiting charge times it's the battery chemistry. Just because you can charge 400kWh in 30 minutes doesn't mean you can use that same power level to charge a smaller battery in less time. You'd cook the smaller pack.

 

[Zaxxon]

You can also drive a Kawasaki Ninja H2R at those speeds. It can be done. Since I rather not be an organ donor, I will take the Roadster 2.0

Hopefully you meant 'since I [would] rather not be [a premature] organ donor...'

That's true, 80% in 30 mins. But, that's 80% of probably around a 500 kwh battery. So, a charging capacity of 4 times the size of a 100 kwh battery in 30 mins. In theory, that same power should be able to supply 80% to a 100 kwh battery in 6 minutes. So, in the Model S, we're talking about ~ 268 miles in about 6 minutes. That would be HUGE!

No. That does not follow. At all.

It's not the power delivery that's limiting charge times it's the battery chemistry. Just because you can charge 400kWh in 30 minutes doesn't mean you can use that same power level to charge a smaller battery in less time. You'd cook the smaller pack.

This.

 

[powertoold]

Long time Elon fan here. I think Elon and Tesla are shooting themselves in the foot by overpromising at the semi event.

Guarantee 1 million mile no break down? That's impossible, given Tesla's reliability these days. Teslas can break down for many reasons, not just the motor, and there aren't any Teslas on the road that have even gotten close to 1,000,000 miles. Why did Elon have to make that promise? It's ridiculous.

Megachargers backed up by solar and PowerPacks? Can you guys imagine how much CapEx that is going to entail? Not only that, but Elon said he guarantees $0.07/kWh Megacharger pricing. That's wayyyy too low, and he's not gonna be able to set up enough solar panels to power more than 1-2 trucks a day (considering each truck is likely 1MW each).

I love Tesla and Elon, but there's some fishy business going on at the last semi event. They were overpromising more than usual, and given their track record these days, there should be tons of doubt.

 

[Buddyroe]

No. That does not follow. At all.

Give it some thought. The semi battery will be MUCH larger than what's in the S or X. Many have speculated that it is a 500 kw battery. If so, the 400 mile charge in 30 mins that Musk quoted would mean 400 kw of the battery is being charged in 30 mins. Since the 100 kw battery is 1/5 the size of the 500, for it to receive 80 kwh charge, it would take 1/5th the amount of time (80/400). One fifth of 30 mins is 6 minutes. Pretty simple.

Only guess is the size of the battery pack. I can't imagine it is less than 500kw.

 

[MP3Mike]

Give it some thought. The semi battery will be MUCH larger than what's in the S or X. Many have speculated that it is a 500 kw battery. If so, the 400 mile charge in 30 mins that Musk quoted would mean 400 kw of the battery is being charged in 30 mins. Since the 100 kw battery is 1/5 the size of the 500, for it to receive 80 kwh charge, it would take 1/5th the amount of time (80/400). One fifth of 30 mins is 6 minutes. Pretty simple.

Only guess is the size of the battery pack. I can't imagine it is less than 500kw.

Actually most people are guessing that the Tesla Semi battery is closer to 1000kWh. So the Megacharger would be ~12 times faster than a current Supercharger.

 

[powertoold]

Give it some thought. The semi battery will be MUCH larger than what's in the S or X. Many have speculated that it is a 500 kw battery. If so, the 400 mile charge in 30 mins that Musk quoted would mean 400 kw of the battery is being charged in 30 mins. Since the 100 kw battery is 1/5 the size of the 500, for it to receive 80 kwh charge, it would take 1/5th the amount of time (80/400). One fifth of 30 mins is 6 minutes. Pretty simple.

Only guess is the size of the battery pack. I can't imagine it is less than 500kw.

There is *no way* the semi battery is 500kWh. 1MW is more like it.

 

[Buddyroe]

There is *no way* the semi battery is 500kWh. 1MW is more like it.

Ok then. If that's true, the 80% charge on a 100 kw battery would be 3 minutes. Just basic math - though I'm sure it's not nearly that simple. In theory it is.

 

[powertoold]

Ok then. If that's true, the 80% charge on a 100 kw battery would be 3 minutes. Just basic math - though I'm sure it's not nearly that simple. In theory it is.

No, that's incorrect. Fast charging is based on the percentage of the entire battery, not the kWh amount. Just because you can charge a 1MW battery to 80% in 30 minutes doesn't mean you can charge 800 kWh in 30 minutes in a 100 kWh battery.

Using your logic, we should be able to charge a cell phone battery in 5 seconds.

 

[JRP3]

In theory it is.

It's not, as I explained above.

 

[MP3Mike]

Ok then. If that's true, the 80% charge on a 100 kw battery would be 3 minutes. Just basic math - though I'm sure it's not nearly that simple. In theory it is.

No, because your charge rate gets divided by 10 as well as the battery size. (You can't just jam the electricity in that fast.)

1000kWh charged to 80% (800kWh) in 30 minutes would require an average charge rate of 1600kW.

If you dived capacity and charge rate by 10 and then solve for time you get:

100kWh charged to 80% (80kWh) at average charge rate of 160kW would take 30 minutes.