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Not at the moment. For this batch, all of the AWD were international. So ~72% international RWD.

Yep - that's where I pull the data for my site.

Where are you getting these numbers? P take rate in Norway looks like ~3.5% in 2017 and ~2% in 2018...Model 3 VINs

Good point, assuming you meant 80kWh and 100kWh...

Tesla launches new cheaper Model S and Model X with software-limited battery pack

What does the Bolinger band have to do with the stock tanking? If there's negative guidance/news in the earnings release, it's gonna tank.

Negative. I've been to this lot, it's right next to the Bellevue DC. Maybe 3-400 cars.

To be fair, VA did credit TMC/FC in their original tweet. ValueAnalyst on Twitter EDIT: Seems like the link actually goes to a different page of the thread.

Thanks! As to the "gain" in doing this, there's a lot of useful information in the VINs (e.g. NA/International, RWD/AWD). Additionally, the volume and frequency of batches have been quite predictive of production. It's more of a part-time job than a full-time job ;) That's correct. It's mostly...

Glad you like it :) BTW I am also tracking DMV registrations in Norway and The Netherlands (updated daily). Includes breakdowns by model/variant and some interactive visualizations which allow you to compare how quarters/years are tracking against prior periods.

Because it's not cost effective and they can power the whole thing with solar + storage. Utility-scale wind projects benefit greatly from economies of scale and being able to amortize fixed costs over hundreds of turbines.

If their capex is higher than expected, to what would you attribute the spending? Early Model Y capex?

No idea why they still include wind turbines in their GF renderings. It makes no sense (other than aesthetics) to have a handful of turbines nearby.

This question should really not be on the list. There is nothing meaningful for Tesla to comment on with respect to the convertible bonds. The "payment plan" of 50/50 cash/stock is no longer under Tesla's control. Tesla was required to notify the bondholders on December 1st of their intended...

Reuters Business on Twitter TESLA HAS SIGNED PRELIMINARY AGREEMENT WITH TIANJIN LISHEN TO SUPPLY BATTERIES TO SHANGHAI FACTORY-SOURCES - Reuters News

Model 3 homologation officially confirmed. Model 3 VINs on Twitter

That's correct. Essentially, commercial electricity is priced on kWh usage and a "demand charge", which corresponds to the peak usage that month. Doesn't matter how often you pulled that peak load from the grid, just that you did. Demand charges can be quite expensive -- which is why storage is...

Amen! On that, we can agree. BTW, my views may seem "traditionalist" but my overarching point is just that wind and solar are great, but we need to pair them with storage. Also, that nuclear and other "baseload" sources of power are quite valuable to the grid. This is informed by my many years...

I don't think the concept of "base load" was just created for laughs. It's true that the grid has a "time-varying load" but this load almost always require some minimum level of energy. If you look at the demand curve throughout the day and over multiple time horizons, it falls within a fairly...

Wind and nuclear have completely different roles on the grid. Nuclear is baseload power generation, wind is intermittent. Nuclear is extremely predictable, wind is not. The long term estimation of wind resources (over 10-20 year time horizons) is difficult to estimate. Even on a day-ahead...

I love Britishisms. No idea what they mean 99% of the time, but they're fantastic all the same. Edit: Here we are ... "over-egg the pudding" = spoil something by trying too hard to improve it

Lol, guess who decided to tag along ... ༺GRIMES༻ on Twitter

That's a good question. Never understood why they wouldn't just show one number to everyone at the same time.

Tom explains the late DECEMBER increase here and here. Basically, it hadn't been updated in a bit and had accumulated a significant number of VINs, including some in a range where there was a significant gap. He most certainly did not. And, as I previously explained, the way he went about it was...

\ For months, people have been bringing up the issue of declining sample rates with @Troy. He would say that his methodology was immune to changes in sample rate since he was using absolute VIN numbers. Um ... ok. Now, after a huge miss in his estimate, he's blaming it on ... you guessed it...

Bloomberg did not change their estimates *after* the P&D report. I noticed the change on the afternoon of Dec. 30th as I was doing my own P&D predictions. I had drafted part of my tweet thread using the 54k production number and then checked before I sent it, and it had changed to ~61k. I'll...

I think this will largely depend on what we see in the reported VINs and whether it's "gappy" or not. If we knew more about *why* Tesla doesn't use all registered VINs we could make a prediction, but for now, we wait.

Damn, FC ... beating me at estimating production using my own data! That's cold. Ratio has actually been remarkably consistent. I suspected ratio may drop to ~80% due to the gaps, but it's only down to 83.33%. In terms of deliveries, my estimate (primarily based on the excellent Alphahat data)...

I appreciate Troy’s work on the surveys, I really do. They are a good resource for all of us. With that said, Troy’s draconian responses to people who disagree with him are not helpful. When people offer reliable data points and make logical arguments they should be considered, not dismissed...

First production batch of European Model 3 VINs! 1,078 VINs, 100% AWD Model 3 VINs on Twitter

Methodology is based on absolute VIN numbers reported by buyers. A line is fit to data points. I would attribute previous accuracy to the fact that prior quarters were much simpler to estimate than Q4. Estimates were typically in a pretty tight range.

True. But I don't think they'll make the unsold/in-transit distinction in the report, so I guess we'll never know?

Canadian deliveries are, but home deliveries are not. There could be material upside here.

It was fun being one of the most pessimistic bulls for a time, but I've come around. I'm upping my M3 deliveries estimate (again) from 58.5k to 62.5k. Primary reasons are: Electrek report on 3k inventory was much lower than I expected. All of the anecdotal data re EOY push from last night...

Using one data source is always a bad idea, especially considering all of the uncertainties around VINs and survey participation. I think not recognizing changing conditions and alternative data points is a mistake. The scientific approach involves the free exchange of ideas, evidence, etc. in...

OR, maybe, these are the only stores who are behind their quarterly goal and are working on NYE as a result.

The other caveat is that VIN gaps have become more pronounced this quarter. So I wouldn't be surprised to see a decline in the Q4 VIN/delivery percentage. This has always perplexed me. I think the most extreme example was the decline in the SP we saw after the release of Q3 2018 deliveries...

Jumped from ~54k to 60,801. FWIW, my final estimate is 58.5k. Model 3 VINs on Twitter

Indeed.

Touché ;)

... when did Tesla report 1k cars in one day? Also, Bloomberg tracker != production. It's not guidance if the quarter is over. It's like saying we think we were profitable, but we need another couple months to actually calculate the numbers and have them audited. Obviously, the consequences of...

1) The error bars around 10 (biased) VINs per day are huge. 2) Who's to say VINs are assigned as soon as they are produced? Or that people submit them with the exact date? Or that there isn't a delay between when the reporter receives the information and when it actually rolled off the line? 3)...

No, you cannot. That is a colossal leap of logic to use a tiny sample of reported VINs to infer what's happening at the factory.

Available for sale or being sold?

Here's a spreadsheet. Put your disagreements in so we can see who's right. Logic, assumptions, etc. don't matter, just predictions. /s Well said. The whole point of TMC, Twitter, etc. is for us to exchange views and make arguments (using reasoning) so that we all come to a better...

Absolutely. Sampling bias and low sample rate affect all of the forecasts (with the exception of production/deliveries as those are based on an absolute VIN number). For instance, @Troy said that Tesla "stopped AWD prod on 3 Dec to focus on MR", which is not correct. He has also said that the...

188k at Fremont on Saturday. ;)

As others have already pointed out, an 80% VIN allocation density is a HUGE assumption. There are much more VIN gaps in today's VIN distribution than there have been in the past. The VINs for vehicles produced in December are all over the place. Last week I saw an 80k and a 188k (registered 6...

I'm sure they improved significantly between launch and this summer, however, looking at the current survey results it looks like there is still much room for improvement. The "star" ratings on the left side appear to be flat since October (no improvement). Not sure where the older data is. As...

While we’re on the topic of disagrees, can you clarify what exactly you disagree with in my below post? - Do you believe that Tesla’s communication around delivery and ordering is flawless? - That all emails from customers are responded to immediately? - Deliveries have never been rescheduled...