Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

MarketWatch showed -10.00% briefly. Reviewing history the lowest is -9.91% at ~9:41

wow! Two disagrees for a factual post? I mean, I get it if you have differing opinions, but this is just silly. I specifically mentioned source because MarketWatch hasn't been exactly accurate in the past. @KarenRei pointed out that taking the daily low the real percentage could be calculated. That was helpful.

 

[Cherry Wine]

w

;-).. I missed that part while THE SITE WAS DOWN!!!....

I think TMC site availability could be one of my ancillary TSAL stock price indicators going forward. It all goes into the mix.

So true -- stock tanks, site goes down. Every time.

 

[Hock1]

Yes, today's daily low was = 10.237% below Monday's close:

(298.8-332.88)/332.88

The trading today and tomorrow should be interesting. I believe the manipulators overshot their downside target. I'm quite sure they did not want to invoke the temporary uptick rule, since their absolute control of the SP is based on 1) naked selling shares (i.e., selling shares that don't exist) and 2) being able to short on downticks). JMO.

Edit: The stock is trading like the uptick rule has been invoked, however has anyone actually seen any confirmation that it has? (Like from SEC, Finra or other SROs)

 

[Cherry Wine]

Damn, FC ... beating me at estimating production using my own data! That's cold. Ratio has actually been remarkably consistent. I suspected ratio may drop to ~80% due to the gaps, but it's only down to 83.33%.

In terms of deliveries, my estimate (primarily based on the excellent Alphahat data) was quite close (62,500 est. vs. 63,150 real).

Would you expect the ratio to continue to edge downward going forward? (~80% in Q1, etc.?)

 

[anthonyj]

When everyone disagreed with me in the last thread, I posted this:

“Tesla raised the price of Model 3 a few times already... they have the room to reduce in order to keep demand high(er)... listen if they don’t reduce the price between Jan 1st and Jan 18th I will literally eat my hat on video and post it on YouTube.”

I don’t have to eat my hat now

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla Ultra Bear Irrationality

Tesla Cuts Prices: "Demand is cratering!"

Tesla Raises Prices: "Tesla can't make cars efficiently!"

 

[reddit_tl]

Not to sound rude, but people need to unsderstand that this stock is extremely easy to manipulate. They just want your cheap shares before Q4 ER. It’s so obvious.

Right. In a sense, the bulls and bears are in this together at some points.

 

[anthonyj]

The trading today and tomorrow should be interesting. I believe the manipulators overshot their downside target. I'm quite sure they did not want to invoke the temporary uptick rule, since their absolute control of the SP is based on 1) naked selling shares (i.e., selling shares that don't exist) and 2) being able to short on downticks). JMO.

No evidence of naked short selling. That’s a myth

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla Ultra Bull Irrationality

Tesla Cuts Prices: "Passing along improved production efficiencies to consumers!"

Tesla Raises Prices: "So much demand we can make even more profit!"

 

[Cherry Wine]

Speaking of glory, while I got the mix totally wrong, I predicted Q4 total vehicle deliveries 90,008 vs 90,700 (99.2% accurate) and Q4 total production of 86,312 vs 86,555 (99.7% accuracy). Pretty good for the methodology used I'd say.TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Sure it's not repeatable (probably) like @Fact Checking 's VIN allocation method might be for production

Not repeatable? Who's to say you won't have another dream for next quarter's numbers?!

 

[Chickenlittle]

interesting, but it has comments that are like 4 of the 7 signs of Gall Bladder disease
FFFFwFFF

Actually not signs but associations with gall bladder disease. Helps clinicians strategy who is at risk (Female. over Fifty, Flatulant, Fat,etc). Like medicine not very Flattering

 

[saniflash]

to end the discussion re uptick rule once and for all:

 

[ZeApelido]

This price drop in the USA plus the price drop in China to eat some of increased tariff rates shows Tesla is not agnostic about WHERE they sell their cars.

Tesla is willing to pay small price for market share in USA and China.

Global demand still exceeds production at 2018 prices.

Sure. But no one cares about 2018 prices anymore.

 

[hacer]

wow! Two disagrees for a factual post? I mean, I get it if you have differing opinions, but this is just silly. I specifically mentioned source because MarketWatch hasn't been exactly accurate in the past. @KarenRei pointed out that taking the daily low the real percentage could be calculated. That was helpful.

Um, when the "facts" are wrong, I don't consider it a "factual post" which is why I gave it a disagree. I have access to time & sales and saw the low print of the day, so I knew your "facts" were wrong. Sorry I didn't run the actual math with the actual prices for you but you were making an effort to dispute accurate claims made by others (that the -10% had been hit and thus uptick rule is in effect). Given that, I'd say you had an obligation to find a reliable data source before posting.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla Ultra Bear Irrationality

Tesla Cuts Prices: "Demand is cratering!"

Tesla Raises Prices: "Tesla can't make cars efficiently!"

My favourite is the cognitive dissonance:

Short: "Where's the $35k car, huh Tesla??? The cheapest car I see is $49k. You'll never be able to maintain sales at your target production levels at these prices! And your current production levels are a fifth of your target levels. Either you never get production up, or you get production up and run out of buyers because the price is too high!"

(Both happen - Model 3 production increases, and Tesla releases the cheaper MR)

Short: "Demand has collapsed! Tesla is doomed!"

Short: (later, as sales continue) "Where's the $35k car, huh Tesla??? The cheapest car I see is $46k. You'll never be able to maintain sales at your target production levels at these prices! And your current production levels are 2/5ths of your target levels. Either you never get production up, or you get production up and run out of buyers because the price is too high!"

(Both happen - Model 3 production increases, and Tesla lowers prices by $2k)

Short: "Demand has collapsed! Tesla is doomed!"

Short: (later, as sales continue) "Where's the $35k car, huh Tesla??? The cheapest car I see is $44k. You'll never be able to maintain sales at your target production levels at these prices! And your current production levels are half of your target levels. Either you never get production up, or you get production up and run out of buyers because the price is too high!"

Everyone else: Finds wall. Bangs head into it.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wedbush riding out Tesla 'early innings' story
Jan. 2, 2019 11:12 AM ET|By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor


Wedbush's Dan Ives dives right into Tesla's (TSLA -7.7%) deliveries update this morning.

"While the delivery numbers were in line with Street estimates, the main focus this morning will be Model 3 deliveries which hit our estimates but missed the Street’s by roughly 3%. Production numbers (86,555 vehicles, 8% q/q) were also generally in line with our expectations and speak to Tesla’s ability to get closer to the 6k per week mark for Model 3 which remains the key bogey heading into 2019 for Fremont and Gigafactory," writes Ives.

The analyst calls the price cut by Tesla a left field move that could be a potential short-term hit to the bull case on profitability. "We remain bullish on the Tesla story given our view that the company is in the early innings of a transformational EV growth opportunity for the next decade although the modest Model 3 delivery miss this quarter, in the near term, will be the focus of investors and put pressure on shares," he notes.

Wedbush keeps an Outperform rating on Tesla and 12-month price target of $440 (+40% upside).

 

[Artful Dodger]

In fact I'm pretty confident to predict that Q4 financials should be even better than Q3 financials:

Indeed, with a 15% increase in Model 3 production in Q4 vs Q3, labor cost per vehicle should go down by a similar percentage (labor cost is fixed; production is variable, so labor cost per vehicle decreases with increasing production).

Given that approx. half the cost of a Model 3 is in labor, then the gross margin per car should also increase by half, roughly 7%.

Then, a 7% increase in gross margin yields roughly a $200M increase in gross profit, (assuming an ASP around $53.5K per each Model 3 in Q4).

So that's yields about 20% more profit in Q4 than in Q3. I think. Please feel free to correct my estimates, @Fact Checking

I think 2018 Q4 financials are going to be huge.

Cheers!

 

[Hock1]

No evidence of naked short selling. That’s a myth

You are wrong. "Market makers" and others with "sponsored access" can short without borrowing. If you were right and someone actually did naked-short, give me an example of what the evidence would be that they did?

How do you think HFT exists? Do you think that a high-trequency trader is going to locate and borrow stock for a short-sale in a millisecond???

 

[ZeApelido]

My favourite is the cognitive dissonance:

Short: "Where's the $35k car, huh Tesla??? The cheapest car I see is $49k. You'll never be able to maintain sales at your target production levels at these prices! And your current production levels are a fifth of your target levels. Either you never get production up, or you get production up and run out of buyers because the price is too high!"

(Both happen - Model 3 production increases, and Tesla releases the cheaper MR)

Short: "Demand has collapsed! Tesla is doomed!"

Short: (later, as sales continue) "Where's the $35k car, huh Tesla??? The cheapest car I see is $46k. You'll never be able to maintain sales at your target production levels at these prices! And your current production levels are 2/5ths of your target levels. Either you never get production up, or you get production up and run out of buyers because the price is too high!"

(Both happen - Model 3 production increases, and Tesla lowers prices by $2k)

Short: "Demand has collapsed! Tesla is doomed!"

Short: (later, as sales continue) "Where's the $35k car, huh Tesla??? The cheapest car I see is $44k. You'll never be able to maintain sales at your target production levels at these prices! And your current production levels are half of your target levels. Either you never get production up, or you get production up and run out of buyers because the price is too high!"

Everyone else: Finds wall. Bangs head into it.

What about the ultra-bull case?

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Would you expect the ratio to continue to edge downward going forward? (~80% in Q1, etc.?)

I think this will largely depend on what we see in the reported VINs and whether it's "gappy" or not. If we knew more about *why* Tesla doesn't use all registered VINs we could make a prediction, but for now, we wait.