Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MartinAustin]

Not to mention you can likely safely charge to 100% to actually use the full range.

...and it will stay charging at a higher wattage for a larger range of the SOC. (a.k.a. the "taper" doesn't start as early)

Now the question is... do these new models charge faster than 120kW at the Version 3 Superchargers? If not... people may hold back from buying them.

If I were in the market for a Model S right now I would definitely not buy until I at least knew the answer to that question.

Also... this will cause a ripple in the value of all of Tesla's CPO cars (and the used market in general). Will be interesting to see how that settles out.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

25 mile range difference? Something else is coming...

They seem to have "matched" the Long Range Model 3 for range so that Long Range = Long Range.

The "Extended Range" S/X really are not much further range.

I am hoping this means in the not too distant future (as in perhaps a "one more thing" for Model Y launch, versus waiting until late 2019 or 2020) S/X get 2170 packs and one is sized to 310 miles and the other is as big as can be. However it might also just lead to a "MR" style pack with cells removed from an otherwise ER/100KWh pack to reach 310 range instead (as the previous 75 wasn't enough capacity for 310 range). Though if they stay software locked for now for simpler manufacturing, I'm okay with that. I'd just prefer they also get the new hotness.

 

[omarsultan]

seems that this changed,

I am not sure--I believe the performance editions still come with a bigger rear drive unit and the fancy contactor to handle the additional power draw--I cannot image them putting all that extra hardware in every model. Beyond the cost, every model would take an efficiency hit for the larger rear DU.

One the website, you need to either commit to a standard model which you can upgrade to longer range or a performance model that you can then upgrade with Ludicrous. It's not presented as a set of progressive upgrades from SR > LR > Perf > Perf + Ludicrous.

The SW upgrade thing is not new--my wife's Model X P90D is SW upgradable to Ludicrous with a SW unlock.

 

[defc0n]

Via options? Capped downside I guess?

No, just own PSQ.

 

[MartinAustin]

Very nice revision, Tesla, congratulations.

Base Model S now has exactly the same range figure as the top Model 3.

There is now a "middle" acceleration choice for Model S. Previously there was 1) something in the low 4's and 2) the record-breaking 2.5. Now we have #1 4.1, #2 3.0 seconds, which is rather reminiscient of the ol' P85D and faster than the top Model 3... and #3 2.4.

Also... I notice they changed their "manufacturer's figure" for the Model S from 2.5 to 2.4. It's my understanding that it was pretty easy to beat that figure in reality. I wonder if anything has changed with the car that will get even faster times. (2.28 was the fastest I saw so far)

 

[mltv]

Note battery size is no longer on the site. So next version of S and X probably has no extended range option - the battery pack could change to a 80kW as long as the battery and motor provide the promised range. With better efficiencies, Tesla could market the same spec in range and performance as other manufacturers while cut cost on actual battery size. Buy now bargain for a 100kW pack. New version of this range probably will not get you a 100kW pack.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yes, that is how it works, they don't just give you the extra capacity for free. It essentially just maps the SoC such that 100% on the software limited battery only charges the physical battery to ~93%. So you get the range that ~93% would give you if your car was the extended range version.

Not sure that was how it worked. I upgraded my original 60 to a 75 after ~6 months. Right before the upgrade, I was still getting the full 208 mile range it was advertised as(and was when I got it). Immediately after the upgrade, I charged to 100% and it went to 240 miles(not the 249 the 75 was advertised as). Had it worked the way you suggest, I’d expect to have gotten 200 miles range at 100% before that upgrade.

 

[KarenRei]

"Hey Siri - what would be a mentally ill person's explanation for why Tesla replacing their $76k entry-level Model S with a $85k entry-level Model S while only adding ~$4k worth of extra batteries to it would somehow mean they're losing money on it?

 

[elasalle]

pier 80:
MacGyver on Twitter

still no ships this week(Tue), but looks like CSCC Europe(ship #5 so far) is almost there. Also pier full loaded .. cheers!!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

"Hey Siri - what would be a mentally ill person's explanation for why Tesla replacing their $76k entry-level Model S with a $85k entry-level Model S while only adding ~$4k worth of extra batteries to it would somehow mean they're losing money on it?

View attachment 372993

Mark's math makes my head hurt...…..and exactly how expensive does he think developing and implementing a software lock/limiter would be!? Besides the fact that Tesla already did this before....but sure they're going to re-develop a new software limiter

 

[tsunamiofhurt]

Note battery size is no longer on the site. So next version of S and X probably has no extended range option - the battery pack could change to a 80kW as long as the battery and motor provide the promised range. With better efficiencies, Tesla could market the same spec in range and performance as other manufacturers while cut cost on actual battery size. Buy now bargain for a 100kW pack. New version of this range probably will not get you a 100kW pack.

Good point, assuming you meant 80kWh and 100kWh...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

"Hey Siri - what would be a mentally ill person's explanation for why Tesla replacing their $76k entry-level Model S with a $85k entry-level Model S while only adding ~$4k worth of extra batteries to it would somehow mean they're losing money on it?

View attachment 372993

Was... was he unaware that Tesla already wrote such software limiters for previous models? That’s startling ignorance, intentional deception, or both.

 

[KarenRei]

pier 80:
MacGyver on Twitter

still no ships this week(Tue), but looks like CSCC Europe(ship #5 so far) is almost there. Also pier full loaded .. cheers!!

Estimated 2500 cars on-site.

 

[elasalle]

So how much is the price difference(for Tesla) for the S/X battery pack b/w 75kWh and 100kWh?

 

[KarenRei]

So how much is the price difference(for Tesla) for the S/X battery pack b/w 75kWh and 100kWh?

I'd answer that, but I don't know what "b/w" means.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I'd answer that, but I don't know what "b/w" means.

Between.

 

[Fact Checking]

New So how much is the price difference(for Tesla) for the S/X battery pack b/w 75kWh and 100kWh?

Somewhere in the $2.5k-$3.5k marginal cost range: if the cell level cost of 18,650 cells is $100 (optimistic scenario) then +25 kWh costs +$2.5k, if it's $140 (almost certainly a pessimistic estimate) then it's $3.5k.

The price increase is $9,000, which suggests a healthy margin improvement from this pricing change.

(Maybe @ReflexFunds has a better estimate how this might affect Q1 and Q2 sales and margins.)

 

[KarenRei]

Between.

About $4k, give or take, based on the last price estimates I saw for the 18650s.

Peanuts, basically. Nowhere resembling the difference in sale price. That was almost all margin.

 

[Krugerrand]

2001 Corolla 97" wheelbase, Model 3 113" wheelbase.

Right. So same size.

 

[dgodfrey]

Not sure if it's been mentioned but another advantage of having a single battery/pack design is the chassis/suspension/weight sensitive components can remain identical for both versions. May even eliminate an additional round of testing.