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i Be the change you want to see. Plenty of value in discussing things from all different framings and levels.

Not crashing or killing people is such a low bar and not even the difficult part. A driving agent also needs to complete trips without getting stuck, it needs to be actually autonomous (no humans in loop, either in car, the field or call center), it needs to be comfortable, it needs to be...

The hard part of self-driving isn't achieving redundancy, it's not the hardware, it's not getting the permits, it's not the sensors. The hard part is 100% the software. The big improvements to come will be from how the model is trained, going beyond imitation learning. The more of the world...

I suspect the end-to-end model can effectively do some of its own localized navigation, so it might not follow the onscreen navigation exactly. OpenPilot's end-to-end model works this way, they render a map with a desired driving route highlighted and the model uses that to figure out where to...

Yeah there was one point in time where cars with Enhanced Autopilot could buy FSD and literally the only added feature was stopping for traffic lights on TACC or Autosteer. Before that there were zero features for your money so at least it was something.

That's not how that feature works, it doesn't set some secret nav route thats hidden from you. Auto navigation just pre-populates the destination when the driver sits down to either work or home or a calendar event. If there's no route on the screen then it will just drive following the roadway...

That's Arizona, not Los Angeles. I guess the HD maps (truth) said there was a road there.

V12 is mostly good but after several days of use my biggest pet peeve has become its indecision around turn lanes, especially dual turn lanes. Not every intersection causes this behavior but when it does it will oscillate back and forth between lanes sometimes 2-3-4 times, or just kind of...

Solving full autonomy gets you the ability to do lots of cool things, but that's many years away. The current models like V12 FSD don't have any agency, they're purely predictive. To take humans totally out of the loop you need models that can plan/conspire, like MuZero, not simply predict the...

I hope we get some new visualizations that make more sense with V12 since the new e2e model doesn't actually make use of what's visualized on the screen anymore (cars, road edges, etc), that's all legacy. It would be cool to train a model to provide "future sight", i.e. like the backup camera...

I'm predicting that the Tesla Robotaxi will be battery-powered.

I don't know how they input navigation directions into the end-the-end model, there are different ways you can do this. But one day they'll probably need some multi-modal thing that can handle language tokens like "Turn left on 10th street", and that will make it possible to grok the roadway...

I've always wondered if Tesla quietly uses safety score or similar to find the "good driver" cohorts. The other possibility is that good drivers stand out in the training set because good drivers all do very similar things, while bad drivers are bad in a wide variety of ways. The good drivers...

I realized a funny sort of switch happened with the V12 release where previously I'd only use FSD on the highway because the city driving was far too janky and unreliable on V11. But now highway is the crappier experience between the two, and I look forward to seeing "Auto" re-appear in the max...

If Tesla can create a perfect driving agent that works in every possible situation worldwide and it only breaks down because the camera got covered up I am fine declaring it "mission accomplished". Full autonomy is 100% a software problem. FSD (supervised) is a cool intermediary on the way to...

I wonder if v12 is overfit to people who spent years using the FSD beta and uploading tons of snapshots of their trips. My car alone has uploaded over a terabyte of video at this point (guesstimating from the wifi traffic records). And with V12 the performance has gotten very good for the most part.

I still can't believe the v12 release notes are this one sentence blurb about how it lets them delete C++ code. And they kept that message for mass trial rollout.

Man the handoff from v12 to v11 stack on the highway is ripe for disaster. Sometimes the handoff happens mid-merge, and the two stacks have totally conflicting merge behavior. V11 likes to keep far to the right of the merging area as long as it can (which is really what you're supposed to do)...

Had weird disengagement on 12.3 where the car was completely stopped waiting for traffic, and while stopped the steering wheel starts rapidly turning to the right for no reason. It got almost up to 120 degrees or so of steering angle before I disengaged FSD. If it drove forward like that it...

I can't tell any difference between the Chill, Average, Aggressive profiles, maybe following distance? Not sure.

This WholeMars guy kind of sucks.

For folks in the FSD Beta, AutoPark has been sometimes working and non-working for large swaths of time over the years. And so they probably don't even bother to mention that they broke it again.

Why would he send that email that only concerns NA delivery/service to the "Everyone" group... that presumably includes every employee in the company world-wide, FTE and contractor/vendor as well? Tesla Energy folks, etc. If it said like "All FTE Service (North America)" or something I would...

I hope we get another AI day cause this thing is totally opaque to me. Like yeah sure it's "end-to-end" now but what are they actually feeding to the driving model? The navigation still seems really primitive to me, it doesn't feel like a complex agent making long-term plans, it just reacts in...

12.3 fixed a lot of longstanding issues for me, but also introduced many new regressions. Makes wrong lane choices that go off-route when they were never an issue on v11. When it approaches some intersections it gets indecisive about what lane to choose, and sort of straddles the line. It...

The visuals have always been cool but they also highlight the very weakness that limited earlier approaches to self driving... There are no human comprehensible states in-between perception and planning. When vision models detect a car, do you care to know what features it honed in on to detect...

They're also dependent on day/night/street lighting. The fact they sometimes can work at all is amazing to me. If you showed me a feed from the car's cameras, like video of the dashcam/sentry recording, I'd have no clue what speed to wipe at. The most you'd see is maybe a hazy blemish now and...

I'd say regulatory signage like that is way out of scope, if the bar was you have to follow all the regulations they would never ship anything, they'd have realized $0 from FSD going into 2024. FSD Beta is basically "Autosteer for city streets", that's how it's sold on their web page. It tries...

Then they'd be removing 600,000 lines of code instead of 300,000.

Yes auto wipers are abysmal. The fastest way to manually set speeds is to tap the end of the left stalk. This does a single wipe and brings up the wiper speed card. Then you can push left and right on the left scroll wheel to switch options. This has the benefit of not having any real delay, you...

The only option I'm aware of that has a Chime + Vibrate Wheel option is lane change notifications that come from "Navigate on Autopilot." I don't think this applies anymore to the FSD Beta but not 100% sure.

I'm just stoked to have a different set of quirks to learn about.

I noticed the blue driving path visuals are extremely short on that V12 build. It doesn't show it's going to make a right turn until it's partway through it.

The FSD beta lane change decisions have too much latency so that by the time it starts to change lanes, it's already being overtaken and has to awkwardly cancel the lane change. This can repeat over and over in traffic. Mix in that stupid "avoiding the rightmost lane" behavior that tries to...

This happened a couple weeks ago with the holiday update, this new one is just some bug fixes.

I'm not expecting it to be miraculous, there were lots of folks besides Tesla trying to do world model learning in 2023. Plenty of progress has been made, but RL is still pretty terrible.

The predicted path looks a lot more stable for left turns at traffic lights. Mine will jiggle all over the place, especially if there are a large number of lanes.

Yeah in the second video the guy jerks on the wheel at 0:58 and disengages FSD without realizing it (the Autosteer icon turns gray and the visualization disappears). So it's now in TACC mode and doesn't make the turn. These people don't even know how their cars work.

Yeah just got to testing in actual rain on 2023.44.30.5.1 and I can't tell any difference from the previous 4 or 5 updates, it still dry wipes frequently and under-wipes in steady rain or doesn't respond at all. Maybe our cars get different feature flags or config is different but this is FSD...

So far I haven't noticed any improvement with the holiday update, it was randomly dry wiping on and off for 30 miles of night time highway driving. But I haven't been able to test it in actual rain yet or other times of day.

This was my prediction because the reliability bar for highway driving is much higher and folks will be less tolerant of regressions. Automated highway driving is a basic feature of the cars and city driving is the new domain. Also they rolled the previous FSD stack out in the same way.

I haven't tested yet but apparently we did score a minor win with FSD 11.4.9 and now you can fully disable wipers while FSD is enabled!

Apple Podcasts works well except one big miss is it doesn't show podcasts that were added via RSS feeds, for example... ad-free, paid Patreon podcasts.

I just got 2023.44.30.2 but I haven't seen any of the new map icons show up (traffic light, stop sign, speed camera, etc). I meet all the requirements per the release notes... Online routing is on, premium connectivity is active. Also the "lock confirmation" toybox is kind of weird/buggy. If...

Only change I noticed for a FSD+USS car is it now shows the steering angle lines in the park assist view.

It would have blind spots, like you'd end up with 1 or 2 pixels at the edge of the frame being interpolated across several degrees of arc in front of the car. But probably the rear is what you're most concerned with when parking.

Birdseye is an easy bolt-on feature (it's just linear transforms in image space). It's like 3 lines of code in MATLAB. But it doesn't fit with what Tesla is building, it's off the path, they work in 3D video not 2D image spaces. They want to end up with a true 3D vector space representation of...

They probably just can't reconcile USS and vision park assist together, you'd have proximity lines from USS that don't really line up with what's coming out of the occupancy network, it would be a confusing mess.

This is much superior because it's truly a 3D point cloud (like having LIDAR) instead of stretching/warping 2D images to pretend that they're in 3D space. There's no actual depth information in those "360 views" it's just house-of-mirrors, visual trickery. If there was some low-hanging pipe or...

I love this little bit from their press release: Next we'll have car makers taping phony "performance-enhancing Velodynes" to the roof just like they do with fake hood scoops and pointless spoilers.