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  1. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Some may want to send a large fraction similarly to this classic t-shirt:
  2. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The median household income for Washington state for 2017-2021 was $82,400. Even the highest, King county which includes Seattle, was not that far above the limit at $106,326. The lowest county, Whitman, was only $43,613. That gave it a rank of 2700 out of 3141 US counties. No so hilarious...
  3. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Perhaps we can count the stationary equipment and installation costs if not the Cybertruck itself? If you don’t install the PowerShare equipment (which you need to go through a Tesla certified installer to obtain), Tesla will give you a $700 credit for their shop. In my case I probably...
  4. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I paid cash from shares sold at not a great price. But I happened to pick up some leap calls last year (which I hadn’t done before and I don’t generally approve of options) at a good time that cover this year and a bit of next. Who knows? FSD might mature sometime soon. 😉
  5. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ouch. Well, I suppose I should be glad to have given @Artful Dodger and @wtlloyd a laugh. Neither my ex nor myself found it amusing that the neural net PhD that I received 30 years ago proved less valuable than expected in my career. Ironic that the “AI" (actually NN) talent war now going on is...
  6. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ahem, I have averred repeatedly since I joined here at the beginning of 2018 and never gainsaid in the interim that 2024 would be the year for FSD. 😎 Of course the price of that insight was to learn technology forecasting the hard way, by being wildly early to somewhat early in my educational...
  7. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oh, I do hope long term Tesla shareholders will get early access. 🤞🏻
  8. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’ll take the other side wrt your position (again): The new consumer vehicle off the existing lines won’t be a decontented Y (or 3).
  9. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Dizzying edge case in the Matrix: Shorts and longs capitulating simultaneously. 😵‍💫😆
  10. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not only will autonomous driving save lives (a wonderful result on its own to be sure) it will also provide an economic boost. I expect a measurable boost in economic productivity due to autonomous driving. This will be due to people working and shopping while being transported. There may...
  11. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Um, doesn’t processing a rebuttal and changing your mind based on it require an analytic mind and independent thinking? Your premise belies your implied recommendation. You’ve inadvertently given the most concise reasoning for not wasting time, money or energy on rebuttals that I’ve seen here...
  12. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is an illuminating post on X from Elon: Moderator😡(MEDIA=twitter)More unacceptable language(/MEDIA) Helped me realize: * There is a life-or-death race to AGI * That race may be more nearly winner-take-all than not * Tesla has the pole position for AGI in the real world * X has a trove of...
  13. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Huh, it’s a wonder that any species of shark could survive with such dull teeth. I wonder how it does so? Oh wait, I know: It’s a bottom feeder. Though that’d mean it’s growth is stunted. So it must be a ‘short’ shark. 😅
  14. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So, after driving the Cybertruck for a while now, I have to admit it’s not something that you’d be calling a "Robotaxi"… … rather it’ll be more of a "Robolimo." 😀
  15. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Finding the difference between the online and real world being so stark has mostly been a heartening experience for me as well as being revelatory. I am saddened by the deleterious effects an online diet of bile, bullying and negativity is having on individuals and society. I never joined...
  16. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I disagree with your conclusion because you are confusing the online world with the real one. Real people in the real world are enthusiastic about Tesla and its cars, especially the Cybertruck, despite the haters online. I’ve encountered probably over a hundred people in my Cybertruck and...
  17. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m a bit behind on this thread, but it cracks me up when we get a downdraft in the SP and a bunch of FUD posts here at the same time. It’s like people who are dumb enough to short—into an already crowded trade mind you—also feel the need to come here and telegraph that the downdraft is due...
  18. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You know guys, I evaluated a lot of technology for quite a while professionally and one thing I learned was to always mentally preface naysayers remarks with "I can’t imagine how that would work" for whatever their reasons or however they define their use cases. Recall all the comments about...
  19. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Another reason to order your Cybertruck now—at least it was for me—is, as we sleep walk our way to WW III (as Elon put it), the Defense Production Act. That Act gives the US President broad authority over manufacturers. Biden and Trump both invoked it during COVID. It would allow the...
  20. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla could finance a substantial chunk of the fleet given the relatively straightforward business of TaaS and, a guess here, there may be tax strategies that add offer some advantages.
  21. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Be less wrong, be more gruntled. Seems like a pretty good recipe for life.
  22. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is cryptic. What does EPAS stand for please? Presumably something to do with steer-by-wire. Which spatial needs are less substantial than what? Has the critical safety code to do with some electronic control unit (ECU), the neural net driving, or something in between?
  23. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Funny, I use "like" for linked posts as I feel sharing something someone else posted is a low effort action on the part of the reposter. This assumes the poster added at least some summary info. A bare link gets no response. I also use "like" if I agree with the post. I use "informative" or...
  24. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’m also at an age and life situation, retired, where I’m sure I’d be advised to diversify, yet I’m all in on TSLA but for my house. Though I do sell shares at times to live off of and to buy the occasional Cybertruck 😁. However, my investment in Tesla isn’t just about me or mine. Tesla...
  25. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cars already communicate with their signals and other lights as well as horns and sirens. People have been working on vehicle-to-vehicle communications (V2V) for ages but there doesn’t seem to have been that much pressure to adopt it. Perhaps it is a hammer looking for a nail.
  26. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Cybertruck sold out for this year: Orders now show delivery dates next year rather than 2024. Posted by greggertruck on X. I wonder if that means all will be Foundation Series this year. We’ve a hit on our hands! Way to go Tesla! We love you Elon and everyone at Tesla! 👏🏻
  27. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If a two seater were the right solution for the first world, would we not see more two or more car households having one of those cars be a two seater? Also, I doubt that in ride share services there is large a percentage of two seaters (again I mean in the first world). So, my guess too is...
  28. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, I wouldn’t think so. Even if Tesla wanted to devote all their next gen production to robotaxis in one market, there will be other markets where robotaxis aren’t yet legal. I’d think Tesla would want to sell the next gen vehicles into the latter markets on the assumption that some owners...
  29. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Then I’m doubly glad I’ve got my Cybertruck already! A CT in the garage is worth two in the bush.
  30. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Presumably depends on average trip length being fairly short and there being some base cost per trip? That doesn’t seem implausible.
  31. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Depends whether your wife is a student or a teacher. If she’s a student then you might be in a community where the kids’ll want to keep their pickups. If she’s a teacher then you may be in a community where, like most of America (even in Texas 😅), the kids are perpetually on their phones, are...
  32. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So the trial doesn’t just sell FSD, it samples more data from more drivers in more locations and situations to make FSD even better. And this just as Tesla is no longer constrained on training compute. It’ll be interesting to see just how good FSD becomes by 8/8…
  33. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It’s what I’ve been trying to communicate here: Cybertruck really is that good. It will command "crazy high prices" for some time. Someone on the Cybertruck Owners site mentioned something about CT’s going from 1000 to be produced to 20-25K to be produced. I don’t know the original source or...
  34. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Oil is the dinosaurs’ revenge on mammals.
  35. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From my experience with my Cybertruck, once moms experience dad’s Cybertruck and see the fashion trend, they’re going to want a grocery getter based on the CT. They’ll cite safety reasons etc, but it’ll be the auto equivalent of a Birkin bag (Birkin bag - Wikipedia). Yes, I’m speaking in...
  36. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    IMO, it isn’t and it doesn’t. Besides, pretty much everything has been said more than once—often way more—and everyone inclined to venting their spleen on the matter has done so ad nauseum.
  37. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nice that you acknowledge your ‘either-or’ was false. Now think again about your "at all" and perhaps you’ll come to a different answer too. Let’s see what is said on the earnings call and how things go in Q2 before we start clutching our pearls about demand.
  38. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are more than two possibilities. The Model 3 ramp, factory shutdowns and shipping diversions may have had knock-on effects. For example, some models and trims could not be brought to where they needed to be by the end of quarter.
  39. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There were an additional 6,366,103 shares shorted reported for the 3/15/24 settlement date. That is up to 102,298,924 shares shorted. That is 5,814,795 over the previous peak reported in the last 12 months which was 96,484,129 for the 6/15/23 settlement date. Not a surprising report given the...
  40. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Huh, I ‘d always wondered who the Macassars were. 😉
  41. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Back of the envelope: There are about 3 trillion vehicle miles travelled annually in the US alone. Let’s say (generously) a robotaxi does 10x the ~15K miles the average American drives annually or 150,000 miles. It would take 20 million robotaxis to cover those miles. One could make a case...
  42. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I might’ve thought so in the past, but now I think a lot of owners will be increasingly inclined to put their vehicles in the robotaxi network as a function of the age of their vehicle. That is, people will put their old or even not so old Teslas into the network rather than part with them when...
  43. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    My mistake. I was on the wrong country site
  44. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Edit: My mistake. Below is not correct. For some reason my phone was on the Canada site FSD is $16K now. This is a screenshot from the US site for a Model 3.
  45. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That’s the thing about the greatest new designs, they are way ahead of the general public but they grow on people and fashion changes to embrace them. Also, it is different to see the Cybertruck in person rather than in pictures. A good number of people I’ve met have said they like it better...
  46. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Enlist your kids in the discussion. 😉 Most of the kids I’ve met have been over the moon to see a Cybertruck. One boy, 11-ish, was just ecstatic and his sister, 10-ish, confided in me that she didn’t much care about cars but she really liked this one. When driving, I’ve seen teen boys stop on...
  47. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I’ve received my Cybertruck (and there was much rejoicing 🥳) and am astonished by how good it is: It is the best automobile ever made by far. Without going into my experiences with the vehicle and with quite a few gawkers at this time, I wanted to give the upshot for Tesla shareholders: Tesla...
  48. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Drop from where are now or where we’ll be at the Q1 ER? Ok I’ll bite, I say we won’t drop below where we are now after the Q1 ER—try as the shorts might. You want to know how I know? I’ve sold all the remaining shares I needed to for my CT during this bear raid.* So the SP can go back up...
  49. capster

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Speaking of a disruptive change at a Musk company. The linked video shows a neuralinked human being: