Search results

Not accurate, I think the China numbers they are using are announced final capacity and not current production. Equivalent to claiming GF1 had 35GWh capacity in 2015. The real numbers in China were 62GWh produced for vehicles in 2019, not the towards 300GWh in the article. "#China 2019...

Does anyone know anywhere or anyone that is keeping track of Tesla's sales by quarter by country outside Europe? This thread is great for collecting Europe monthly Tesla car sales reports: Tesla Europe Registration Stats But I haven't seen anything for other markets such as Korea, Japan...

With Elon's comments on a Tesla HVAC plus HEPA filter, plus possible water filtration product, has anyone kept track of all the Tesla Home products they appear to be working on? Soon enough, I think it may be worth fitting all these pieces together into a full Tesla smart home with extremely...

I appreciate the work of the moderators here and this is still currently the best place for detailed Tesla investor discussion but it will not be if those with the most insight are driven away. Exquisite thread organisation has no value if you lose the content.

Aside from the fact an EV costs $40k while a mass produced test should cost $2 and the cost of the alternative to the test is possibly as high as the person's 6-12 month salary.

6 weeks was how long it took to get new daily cases in Hubei below 10. I think at that stage you can move to a thorough test, trace and isolate strategy, if not several weeks before. I'm generally sceptical of economic numbers in China, however people I've spoken to in Wuhan (via Chinese...

This is only because nobody has paid for them. This can all happen very quickly if funding is committed to it. China was performing over 300k tests per day over a month ago. Every country should be ordering as many tests and masks as possible from every domestic company with capacity and also...

How I would deal with CV-19 The current “flatten the curve” strategy is a result of medical advisors constraining their options with a bad economic assumption and then governments not realising their medical advice contains an economic fallacy. Flatten the Curve essentially means maintain...

Given so many deliveries are always in the last 2 weeks of the quarter, I think the biggest risk to Q1 is delivery delays due to quarantines. I guess we will see some cancellations but it’s hard to judge at this stage. Of course there are also production risks if Fremont was held back by parts...

The Tesla/Panasonic chemistry is several years old now and LG and CATL look to have caught up with chemistry that is close on most metrics, but likely less energy dense. Tesla's battery strategy is software first which makes them flexible to different chemistries and even cell designs. The LG...

@DKurac "LG Chem, Tesla GF3 agree on 10-13 GWh #NMC811 supply based on initial agreement, #China media reports without citing sources. LG Chem has not yet commented on the news. Earlier reports showed #CATL to supply Tesla with #LFP for 40% of GF3 1st phase capacity in 2020." If LG cells will...

I agree governments should have much more targeted support for companies and people that really need short term liquidity. It is possible for capital markets to help too though. There has been a huge amount of cash held on the side lines in distressed debt funds/value funds/PE etc for the past...

I know we have some avid anti-testers here, but South Korea new cases are down 50% week on week due to their policy of testing everyone with any cold symptoms and providing support to those in quarantine. This is the low cost solution. Otherwise you can wait until the health system gets...

Given Tesla's ramp to 4k Feb production at GF3, I think Asia is looking more likely to reach 20-22k Q1 deliveries. This would take my Q1 delivery expectations to 108k-110k. Again assuming no supply shortages in March in Fremont or GF3 due to the virus. My Asia estimate includes 12-14k GF3...

It is just that they sold out of inventory and new inventory only arrives to customers in weeks 7-13 (and mostly 10-13) given their standard production batching and shipment timing. 7 ships were sent to Europe vs 8 in Q4.

In Europe SR+ switched from December to February delivery estimate at the start of November while AWD/P switched on November 28th. The cutoff date varied by country and not by shipment date. In Q3 September deliveries were available until late in the quarter. I guess the quarters production...

So far I am leaning towards total Q1 deliveries (3,Y, S &X) of: North America: 59k (flat QoQ supported by Y and stock wealth) EU: 29k (-20% QoQ all due to Holland tax driven timing) Asia: 18k (flat QoQ) Total: 106k North America likely to be lower if supply chain disruptions in China impacted...

Asia sales are largely dependent on cell supply ramp at GF3 and supply chain disruption from the virus, but there is potential for deliveries to be up significantly QoQ particularly if the second shift was added in February as rumoured. Europe first month sales were down 0.2k to 2k QoQ (left...

I do have a scientific background and there is nothing absolute in my comments. You are the one who appears to have absolute certainty that we should allow this virus to spread without fighting it. We didn’t always have the tools to counter virus outbreak. And very rarely has the negative...

It seems feasible the virus can be almost entirely eradicated in China even in Wuhan within one to two weeks. On 1st March there were 141 new suspected cases, 715 total remaining suspected cases and 46,219 close contacts still under medical observation in China. Compared to one week ago on 23rd...

China reported just 193 new cases in Wuhan, 3 in Hubei ex Wuhan and 6 in Other China on 1st March. It looks like they are beating it. This sets an example for other countries what they can do if they start testing people on greater scale and taking the virus seriously. South Korea seems on track...

What exactly is your solution? So far I’ve read you preaching: Don’t wear masks Don’t test Don’t quarantine Because you think it’s all useless. Perfect is the enemy of the good. You need to do everything possible to reduce the probability of infections, particularly for very low cost actions...

Tests are the primary method of stopping the disease. How can you diagnose, appropriately quarantine someone and trace their connections if you don’t test them?

Just a screenshot is probably easiest, otherwise a Google doc i guess if that won't take long. Thanks again!

I really appreciate these charts @KarenRei thank you. Would it perhaps be possible for you to also include the first chart in table form with your updates so I can track the precise numbers?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot? November 2018: "Although Panasonic still makes cells for the Solar Roof, Tesla took issue with their aesthetics and cost, several sources say, and bought them from a Chinese supplier, JA Solar Holdings Co., instead" I'm not sure if Tesla is still using JA Solar for...

Panasonic has been winding down parts of its solar business for some time. Tesla has not been using Panasonic panels, i presume because Panasonic would not invest in the R&D required to redesign its modules to Tesla's final specification. Tesla can continue building solar roofs as normal. But...

Also don't forget this is who VW and Ford are backing in the Robotaxi race. It is utterly negligent that their self driving program is not being optimized for EVs at this stage. Even if they ever do get there, they will not be remotely competitive with Tesla's cost per mile. The energy...

I completely agree with this. I really think over the past 2 years Tesla's mission statement has changed from "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy" to "transition the world to sustainable energy". Elon got tired of the incompetence and foot dragging shown by large...

I completely agree with this. I really think over the past 2 years Tesla's mission statement has changed from "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy" to "transition the world to sustainable energy". Elon got tired of the incompetence and foot dragging shown by large...

It's worth noting Tesla did not book the $140m deferred revenue in Q4. It is still sitting on balance sheet. Even though it looks like this payment was related to 2019 emissions pooling. For some reason Tesla chose not to book it - perhaps because they were saving it to boost Q1. But if your...

Plus there are reports that ICE OEMS have recently been inflating their emissions for ICE cars under WLTP testing to set an easier baseline for the EU % CO2 reduction targets. "by switching off the start-stop system, choosing less fuel-efficient gearshift patterns and selecting for instance the...

CATL cells are just a short term means to boost production, they are not the exciting new in-house cell tech Tesla will reveal on battery day.

The Other China trend is again very encouraging. New cases in the past 5 days have been: 60, 31, 18, 11, 9. This is down from a peak of towards 900 and relative to total cumulative cases in Other China of 12,872. I get there is likely some scepticism towards China's numbers, but I still think...

Death rate numbers can also be heavily skewed if outbreaks occurred in an elderly population or in hospital wards amongst patients with pre-existing conditions.

Iran seems the highest risk outbreak right now by far. 12 deaths implies over 1,000 cases, but only 61 cases have been identified. And if they are failing to diagnose, the 12 deaths is likely understated too. This means infected people in Iran are likely not in appropriate quarantine. I'm not...

At this stage I think probabilities are: >95% Tesla will use CATL cells >90% chance Tesla will use CATL LFP cells >80% chance Tesla will use CATL LFP Prismatic cells. (Prismatic cells are the optimum format for lower energy density chemistry, while cylindrical are optimum for higher energy...

I think the main development this past week is that China appears to have effectively suppressed 5-6 outbreak pockets similar in size to South Korea/Italy, and even the epicenter in Hubei appears to now be under control. I don't see how the market is so surprised that there are outbreak centres...

This largely aligns with my post in January below that I suspect all Tesla Body & Assembly lines have ~4.7k per week design capacity on three shifts, but that Tesla hope most can be pushed past design capacity to ~7k per week as they did with Model 3s in Fremont. So the primary production...

Weekend thread: Stocks with >50% exposure to EVs/Clean Energy/Sustainability Obviously Tesla is the true Clean Energy pure play and leader, but I'm trying to screen some other stocks with a true focus on Clean Energy/Sustainability. Are there any other public stocks people have come across...

It's surprisingly hard to find a list of stocks with true focus on Clean Energy/CO2 reduction. For many of the big names such as Panasonic or LG Chem, EV batteries is still just a minor division. When trying to screen stocks I find often what's left is small or micro cap early stage companies...

I would take comments from Simon Moores as close to confirmation, Benchmark have the most credibility of any research team in the battery & battery materials sector My view for some time has been that Tesla are likely to take the best current tech from all the leading battery companies to...

Three points here: 1) If cell producers such as LG Chem and CATL have the key tech ingredient/EV adoption bottleneck, they will make a large gross margin on the product, putting ICE OEMs at a large cost disadvantage vs Tesla who will make cells in-house. 2) There are huge benefits to vertical...

Good decision to raise capital. Currently unrestricted cash is $6.3bn and undrawn credit lines $3bn for total $9.3bn liqudity. This raise will take them to $11.5bn liqudity. Gives them a lot of ammunition for accelerating capex if possible, taking cell production in-house and potential M&A...

2028 or 2029. The Auto market likely will shrink to ~40 million cars as consumers await EV capacity. It will be higher if EV capacity is built sooner. Tesla can self finance to 20 million EV capacity by 2028 if no one else is getting their act together with building EV capacity. This would...

A lot has changed perception and valuation wise in the past year, and Tesla has made continuous progress on production and most quarterly earnings line items, but really the bigger picture is unchanged from when I posted this last January and the future for Tesla looks just as positive as ever...

I'd say ~30% chance we get another daily move of +-20-30% within the next week. Most likely on Monday and positive. Its very high risk trying to time in though.

This won't necessarily dampen the effect, it could strengthen it while dragging the rally timing forward several hours.

I agree. It looks like we could go into next week with the setup for daily moves to be even higher in each direction than we've seen this week. Will be key to see how many put buyers take profit today and tomorrow. The best case (for OTM call buyers) is that we see some mock stability in the...

This was due to the sudden jump in delta shares sold from the increase in put options late in trading. The rally was likely driven by increased delta demand from call options prior to the huge put bet (likely towards $8bn of new put option delta exposure was bet on the market on Tuesday).