Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

GF4 Berlin work continues at 6:40 am:

Tobias Lindh on Twitter

Guess the are still removing the tree stumps after cutting trees was finished.

Surprised they are still in such a rush - had assumed now that tree cutting was out of the way before the deadline at end of February they´d slow down because they are limited in what they can do before the final building permit - but doesn´t seem like they´re slowing at all. Wonder how far they will continue before the final permit comes in (expected in May).

A German saying "what you can do today don't postpone to tomorrow"

There is a ton what they are allowed to do now as preparation work until the permit arrives which I expect will take a while.

Poor bats in the few remaining trees are about to get a lifetime shock awaking after hibernating in a desert inserted what they considered to have been a forest.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Is "MIC LFP confirmation" new information from the InsideEVs rumor mill?

Confirmed: MIC Tesla Model 3 Will Have Prismatic LFP Cells

"The Chinese Standard Rage will have a range of more than 155 mi (250 km) to be eligible for EV subsidies, will be much cheaper than the current derivatives for sale, and will also last longer, due to the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry."

"...CATL will use a new method to increase the energy density of the LFP chemistry called cell-to-pack – or CTP. It basically saves weight, allowing the battery pack to offer more energy with the same mass of a less energy-dense solution."

At this stage I think probabilities are:

• >95% Tesla will use CATL cells
• >90% chance Tesla will use CATL LFP cells
• >80% chance Tesla will use CATL LFP Prismatic cells. (Prismatic cells are the optimum format for lower energy density chemistry, while cylindrical are optimum for higher energy density, but only if the pack hardware & software can assemble/handle them affordably)
• If the above is true, ~50% if these will be whole CATL modules or whole CATL cell to pack design.

What is unclear is:

• If this will be for the SR+ Model 3 or for a new SR lower range China specific version?
• If these packs will be cheaper (in $ per KWh) than Tesla's SR+ packs made at GF1? (I'm very skeptical about this, I think on the whole CATL packs are likely to be more expensive, however I expect Tesla got a great deal, and possibly -ve margin for CATL)
• Will charge rate be as high? (I think unlikely)
• Will battery life be as high in miles (Maybe similar, possibly higher cycle life cancelled by smaller battery meaning more cycles per mile)

I think the key rational of this deal for Tesla is:

• Accelerate ramp up of GF3 production without using cells produced in GF1. This will allow them to ramp faster than LG can ramp its new 2170 cell lines. It will also likely allow them to ramp faster than the NMC811 supply chain can ramp cathode powder production.
• Establish a relationship with CATL, who will likely be the leading third party battery supplier. This relationship can be leveraged to accelerate short term production again in the future and to complement Tesla's in-house cell production.
• To reduce raw material risk and establish that Tesla can make cells without Nickel and Cobalt if needed (even if the cars are likely inferior).

I think the rational for CATL is:

• Find a use for overcapacity which resulted from Chinese EV companies falling far short of production targets and delaying EV programs over the past year
• Establish a relationship with the leading EV company and leading battery purchaser. This is beneficial both for future business opportunities and for short term share price.

I do not think CATL, Panasonic or LG cells will be a focus on battery day.
I expect Elon to run through the deals and say how Tesla has established relationships with all the key battery cos and how it can accelerate supply whenever they hit cell bottlenecks, but I think the real focus will be on Tesla's in-house cell design which I expect to account for the vast majority of new capacity going forward.

 

[Dare]

@Dare
Bought 4 shares 12/23 to 12/31 at $420.69, 1 per day
2 are essentially free
Is that what you were asking?

Ha! Me too. I bought a handful of shares around that price point, as I'm sure many people did...it's great to see those "joke buys" doing so well.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Crazy, isn't it? Imagine what could be achieved if Elon, Tim, Warren, Sergei, Bill, and Jeff got together to combat climate change. They alone would probably make the difference...

I don't have hard numbers, but there are tipping points and feedback loops where you'r looking. If the richest people on the planet start disinvesting oil and reinvesting ESG, others will follow. Even if small retail investors start emulating, bigger players will have to create interesting financial products for a more green-savvy investors. And so on. We just need to be wary of greenwashing practices.

 

[hobbes]

16,000 dead and 280,000 hospitalized in the US.

Flu shot better than last year, despite tough season for kids

Oh, wait, that’s the 2019-20 US flu season data as of 2 days ago.

The market loves any reason to sell. I hate the loss of life but perspective is everything.

I have been wondering about that, too - think I found the difference, see my reply in the corona virus thread. Coronavirus

 

[hobbes]

Frankfurt is always very low volume and seem to follow macros with a multiplier for Tsla.

From memory it's more common that it goes back upwards once US premarkets kick in than that it continues down.

I think it's mostly computers buying/selling. Frankfurt doesn't matter to much.

Not advice obviously.

This is not just limited to TSLA and not limited to some small exchange:

US stocks were poised to open sharply lower. Dow (INDU) futures were down more than 800 points, or more than 2.7%. S&P 500 (SPX) futures declined 2.7%, and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were off 3.3%.

Global stocks hammered as coronavirus cases surge in South Korea and Italy - CNN

 

[Unpilot]

This is not just limited to TSLA and not limited to some small exchange:


Global stocks hammered as coronavirus cases surge in South Korea and Italy - CNN

"If it bleeds it leads"
Nothing like a good scary headline to get and keep the eyeballs.

 

[UncaNed]

The July 2022 options in the 1500 range are favorably priced IMO. Not as favorable as they were 3 weeks ago, but still quite good IMO. Just an opinion though, I am fumbling my way through doing well at this despite not having a clue what I am doing.

July 2022? Do different brokerages offer different expiration dates?

 

[Unpilot]

July 2022? Do different brokerages offer different expiration dates?

Yeah I wondered about that.
I don't see one that far out yet.

 

[elasalle]

Viruses & Trolls are most effective when they go undetected. cheers!!

 

[mrdoubleb]

GF4 Berlin work continues at 6:40 am:

Tobias Lindh on Twitter

Guess the are still removing the tree stumps after cutting trees was finished.

Surprised they are still in such a rush - had assumed now that tree cutting was out of the way before the deadline at end of February they´d slow down because they are limited in what they can do before the final building permit - but doesn´t seem like they´re slowing at all. Wonder how far they will continue before the final permit comes in (expected in May).

I guess those subcontractors are paid by the day - they probably want to get this done in a cost efficient manner.

 

[Tslynk67]

A German saying "what you can do today don't postpone to tomorrow"

There is a ton what they are allowed to do now as preparation work until the permit arrives which I expect will take a while.

Poor bats in the few remaining trees are about to get a lifetime shock awaking after hibernating in a desert inserted what they considered to have been a forest.

Luckily for them, they're as blind as...

 

[KarenRei]

Luckily for them, they're as blind as...

... shorts?

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't have hard numbers, but there are tipping points and feedback loops where you'r looking. If the richest people on the planet start disinvesting oil and reinvesting ESG, others will follow. Even if small retail investors start emulating, bigger players will have to create interesting financial products for a more green-savvy investors. And so on. We just need to be wary of greenwashing practices.

Divesting from FF is one thing, but also I could imagine if these guys pooled their resources to build-ot renewable infrastructure, GF6, 7, 8..., etc., could work on two fronts, removal of the old, addition of the new.

Hell, these guys could probably donate enough money to give everyone in the USA solar and a home battery, just that alone would have a dramatic impact.

 

[Tslynk67]

So let's see what happens in 4 minutes, when pre-market opens up (that's 13:00 CET)...

Edit: not a lot... no retail panic selling as far as I can see.

 

[elasalle]

Warren Buffett interview live updates: 'Good for us' when stocks drop, Berkshire Coronavirus impact

 

[Highway2Heel]

What a gift.

 

[Unpilot]

So let's see what happens in 4 minutes, when pre-market opens up (that's 13:00 CET)...

Edit: not a lot... no retail panic selling as far as I can see.

Looks like I'll be a buyer at open...seems it will be a good price.

 

[KarenRei]

So, my distraction level to day is going to be a bit higher than usual...

 

[HG Wells]

Attention TSLA shoppers.

Today we are having a limited time sale.
Save 3,4 even 5% !

It's first come first served.